How many points does Biden have to win by to win state legislatures in the following states

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

AZ
MN
MI
NC
GA
FL

[lfromnj]

AZ had the median district to the left of the state in 2018 senate. (population deviation abuse) So Biden just has to win AZ or even lose it by a touch.

Minnesota is like 4-5 points for the state senate.

Michigan state house was pretty brutal, Whitmer just tied the seats.

NC is like 7 points for the state senate and state house. A bit of this was the incumbency protection but a bit more is also just the fact that Wake/Mecklenburg/Durham growth is insane. Ds get like 4-5 state house and like 2 state senate seats just from that with 2018 redistricting.

Georgia there is one Clinton- Kemp rural seat and I think the median seat is rural. If I had to guess , the median seat would not flip obviously as its like Kemp +9. I think Biden would have to win by like 6-7 points which is not happening this year so nope.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia there is one Clinton- Kemp rural seat and I think the median seat is rural. If I had to guess , the median seat would not flip obviously as its like Kemp +9. I think Biden would have to win by like 6-7 points which is not happening this year so nope.

This, basically.

GOP won both chambers of the General Assembly by 8.8 points in PV: 7.4 points better than Kemp.

The other comparison would be in the State House universal swing. Democrats would have won a 1-seat majority had they won every seat the GOP carried by less than 10 points precisely: 8.6 points better than Kemp.