Which Election was more winnable for Republicans? (Part Two)

[dw93]

Which of these uphill battles for the GOP was less of one?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Definitely 2008, especially if say Bush bailed out Lehman stabilizing things for a few more months .


Dole actually overperformed greatly on Election Day while McCain did about as well as expected I beleive too

[MT Treasurer]

Unpopular opinion: 1996. Clinton's popularity was a mile wide and an inch deep, his serious moral and character flaws were already well-known by 1996, and a Republican who would have gone scorched earth on him and pursued a base turnout strategy while consolidating Ross Perot's "populist" base would have had a much better chance at pulling off an upset than Dole, who probably ran the worst presidential campaign in recent history.

[darklordoftech]

1996. No Republican could win with two wars and a recession.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1996. No Republican could win with two wars and a recession.

The polling was close when it was still a normal recession.

[Podgy the Bear]

2008 was actually more winnable than 1996.  Obama had a tough road to the nomination, and thanks to the (very) short-term boost from Sarah Palin, both McCain and Obama were running very close until September 15.  It all changed after that.

1996 should have been a blowout for Clinton.  He had a unified party, and after the government shutdown debacle, it was clear that he would win.  He was leading by 15-20 points going into October, and he was well ahead in states like GA and CO and was within striking distance in TX and even MS.   The campaign finance controversy brought Clinton's numbers down somewhat.

And as noted above, Dole didn't run a very good campaign, but his 96 hour marathon at the very end brought him a lot of good will and several disaffected Republican voters.  More significant, it probably saved the House for the Republicans--which created a huge problem for Clinton in the following term.

[dw93]

I'm surprised 1996 is winning given that Dole never lead Clinton at any point in 1996 while McCain did (abet very briefly) after the Republican convention in 2008.

[Turbo Flame]

 1996: I believe with a stronger candidate, the nominee would have thrown a scare on Bill Clinton. Plus, there was no risk for party fatigue and the economy was thriving.