Eric Forth is dead

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just heard now:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4993000.stm

Not heard any details, but this means a by-election in Bromley.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turns out to have been cancer. Never liked Forth much (to risk understatement actually) but that's sad to hear.

[afleitch]

Well this'll be a hoot.

13000 + majority over Labour. Lib Dems in a close 3rd (and will probably whell out one of their famous graphs) Forth increased his share of the vote in 2001 and 2005 - it should be a straightforward Conservative hold.

[Ben.]

....it should be a straightforward Conservative hold.

I really hope your right, and to be fair you probably are, but we cant underestimate the bloody LibDem to be fair this is hardly Dunfermline where they where in a solid second (or was it third, well it was strong at least) place and in a part of the country that favours them… no it should certainly be a comfortable Conservative win, especially based on the local elections this year.

I just hope their isn’t an attempt to parachute Adam Ricketts in (!) – still don’t understand why if Ricketts was added (and I think he’s a more competent performer than some have suggested) but Iain Dale was not – but I’d expect someone from the “A-List” probably London based, local government experiance and probably a woman.

I must say I agree with Al, I never was a big fan of Forth’s politics but he was an effective parliamentarian and a conviction politician and for that he is and should be respected, it always a shame to lose someone especially one who's style is so unique it’s sad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I really hope your right, and to be fair you probably are, but we cant underestimate the bloody LibDem to be fair this is hardly Dunfermline where they where in a solid second (or was it third, well it was strong at least) place and in a part of the country that favours them… no it should certainly be a comfortable Conservative win, especially based on the local elections this year.

This seat borders Orpington so I'm sure the LibDems will try to use the memory of a by-election over four decades ago to encourage their activists
There's a decent minority Labour vote in parts of Chislehurst, btw. The old Chislehurst seat (which included the Cray area now in Orpington) actually went Labour for a while in the '60's. No real LibDem history o/c.
Bromley itself is perma-Tory; SuperMac's seat back in the '50's and as safe now as it was then. The London Borough of Bromley and it's predecessors have been, with a short break from 1998 until 2002, Tory run for over half a century IIRC.

[Harry Hayfield]

Election 2005:
Eric Forth, Con, 23,583 (51.11%)
Rachel Reeves, Lab, 10,241 (22.19%)
Peter Brooks, Lib Dem, 9,368 (20.30%)
David Hooper, UKIP, 1,475 (3.19%)
Ann Garrett, Green, 1,470 (3.18%)
Turnout: 64.82%
Con hold with a majority of 13,342 (28.92%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 4.01%

Past results (on 1997 boundaries)
2001: Con 50% Lab 29% Lib Dem 19% Others 3%
1997: Con 46% Lab 25% Lib Dem 24% Others 5%
1992: Con 61% Lab 18% Lib Dem 18% Others 3%
1987: Con 60% Lab 16% Lib Dem 24% Others 0%
1983: Con 58% Lab 15% Lib Dem 26% Others 1%
1979: Con 57% Lab 26% Lib Dem 16% Others 1%
Oct 1974: Con 48% Lab 29% Lib Dem 22% Others 1%
Feb 1974: Con 48% Lab 26% Lib Dem 25% Others 1%
1970: Con 54% Lab 31% Lib Dem 15%
1966: Con 48% Lab 33% Lib Dem 19%
1964: Con 48% Lab 30% Lib Dem 21% Others 1%

[Democratic Hawk]

Forth was never my kind of Tory but cancer is not a nice thing to have. I'm surprised he passed so quickly following diagnosis

Con hold

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Forth was never my kind of Tory but cancer is not a nice thing to have. I'm surprised he passed so quickly following diagnosis

Happens if you're only diagnosed very late.

Anyways, Con hold, LD second sounds like a fairly safe prediction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things have got nasty already...

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems/story/0,,1781699,00.html