States where Trump gets over 40% of Hispanic vote

[mileslunn]

While not all states have large enough samples for accurate data, my guess is Trump gets over 40% of Hispanics in Florida, but nowhere else.  Florida largely due to large Cuban community where Trump gets in high 50s, although still loses Hispanic vote there overall due to poor showing amongst non-Cuban Hispanics.

[Kamala's side hoe]

While not all states have large enough samples for accurate data, my guess is Trump gets over 40% of Hispanics in Florida, but nowhere else.  Florida largely due to large Cuban community where Trump gets in high 50s, although still loses Hispanic vote there overall due to poor showing amongst non-Cuban Hispanics.

40% of the Latino vote is a tall order in a state where Cubans make up only 30% of the Latino population. Your estimate for Cuban voters implies that Trump wins 32-33% of the non-Cuban Latino vote.

[mileslunn]

While not all states have large enough samples for accurate data, my guess is Trump gets over 40% of Hispanics in Florida, but nowhere else.  Florida largely due to large Cuban community where Trump gets in high 50s, although still loses Hispanic vote there overall due to poor showing amongst non-Cuban Hispanics.

40% of the Latino vote is a tall order in a state where Cubans make up only 30% of the Latino population. Your estimate for Cuban voters implies that Trump wins 32-33% of the non-Cuban Latino vote.

Isn't turnout amongst Cubans typically higher than other Latino groups though?

[BaldEagle1991]

Florida.

That’s it.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Florida.

That’s it.

[Bootes Void]

Alabama, Georgia and North Dakota

[BaldEagle1991]

Alabama, Georgia and North Dakota

I think the Hispanics there are mostly Mexican and they're surrounded by rednecks every day in those places so they'll hardly be Republican voters in 2020.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

While not all states have large enough samples for accurate data, my guess is Trump gets over 40% of Hispanics in Florida, but nowhere else.  Florida largely due to large Cuban community where Trump gets in high 50s, although still loses Hispanic vote there overall due to poor showing amongst non-Cuban Hispanics.

40% of the Latino vote is a tall order in a state where Cubans make up only 30% of the Latino population. Your estimate for Cuban voters implies that Trump wins 32-33% of the non-Cuban Latino vote.

If Cubans make up 30% of the hispanic general population in FL, they are a larger share than that of voting population.  Anyway 30% or so of non-Cuban hispanic voting for Trump would be totally doable.

Alabama, Georgia and North Dakota

I think the Hispanics there are mostly Mexican and they're surrounded by rednecks every day in those places so they'll hardly be Republican voters in 2020.

In North Dakota a lot of them are in oil/gas industry, or at least connected to it in a way that their local economies depend on it, which would tend to make them more Republican.   

[Non Swing Voter]

Just Florida and that's not even guaranteed.

[Badger]

Just Florida and that's not even guaranteed.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

If reagente's 2016 estimates are of any utility I'd say that Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are at least as likely as Florida.
I guess there is also an outside chance for New Mexico.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Even if Trump gets 55% of Cubans, roughly the same as before, he would still need close to 30% of other Latinos to hit 40% in Florida. It's possible, but not probable. Only other place where Trump could break 40% would be solid red states with small, mostly rural Latino populations. Wyoming comes to mind.

[Non Swing Voter]

These numbers look pretty bad for Trump if accurate:

https://deadline.com/2020/09/joe-biden-donald-trump-univision-latino-voter-1234586222/

[Senator Spark]

FL, ID, MT, WY

[Xing]

None, not even Florida.

[H. Ross Peron]

Florida, Utah, maybe Oklahoma?

[pbrower2a]

Florida.

That’s it.

It couldn't be more obvious, could it?

[BaldEagle1991]

While not all states have large enough samples for accurate data, my guess is Trump gets over 40% of Hispanics in Florida, but nowhere else.  Florida largely due to large Cuban community where Trump gets in high 50s, although still loses Hispanic vote there overall due to poor showing amongst non-Cuban Hispanics.

40% of the Latino vote is a tall order in a state where Cubans make up only 30% of the Latino population. Your estimate for Cuban voters implies that Trump wins 32-33% of the non-Cuban Latino vote.

If Cubans make up 30% of the hispanic general population in FL, they are a larger share than that of voting population.  Anyway 30% or so of non-Cuban hispanic voting for Trump would be totally doable.

Alabama, Georgia and North Dakota

I think the Hispanics there are mostly Mexican and they're surrounded by rednecks every day in those places so they'll hardly be Republican voters in 2020.

In North Dakota a lot of them are in oil/gas industry, or at least connected to it in a way that their local economies depend on it, which would tend to make them more Republican.   

If that's the case then Texas Hispanics should vote Republican 60%+

[Badger]

FL, ID, MT, WY

Really interested in hearing the theory about those last three. The Hispanic vote in those three states is relatively small, but it is not like North Texas tejanos who been in the country for Generations and are far more white redneck in culture than Latino. From what I understand of those Mountain States, the small Hispanic population is relatively new and heavily democratic. It's again just too small to have much impact on elections (yet)

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

These numbers look pretty bad for Trump if accurate:

https://deadline.com/2020/09/joe-biden-donald-trump-univision-latino-voter-1234586222/

67-19 in 2016, 66-24 in 2020, while he's dropping nationwide.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

FL, ID, MT, WY

Really interested in hearing the theory about those last three. The Hispanic vote in those three states is relatively small, but it is not like North Texas tejanos who been in the country for Generations and are far more white redneck in culture than Latino. From what I understand of those Mountain States, the small Hispanic population is relatively new and heavily democratic. It's again just too small to have much impact on elections (yet)

If reagente's 2016 estimates are of any utility I'd say that Idaho, Montana and Wyoming are at least as likely as Florida.
I guess there is also an outside chance for New Mexico.

reagente's map had Trump losing the non-White vote in Montana and Idaho by like less than 20 points and in Wyoming by less than 10 points if I recall correctly.
Also judging by historical percentage of Hispanic inhabitants, Hispanics in Montana and Wyoming seem to be pretty long-standing.

[mardigrappa]

Most likely one of those midwestern or upper rocky/plains states. I don't know the margins off hand so if someone has any of that then that would be helpful, but they're within the same ballpark as the rest of the population from experience and not really marginalized. Especially since those places are a bit more concerned about economical or social manners more than what social progressives or modern day democrats are pushing.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Just Florida and that's not even guaranteed.

According to the NY Times exit polls, the only state where Trump unarguably won over 40% of the Latino vote was Florida (47%). TX, NC, GA, and CO were all around 40%. AZ was in the 30s. CA and NY were in the 20s. PA was under 20%.