Do you support Armenia or Azerbaijan in the current conflict?

[Damocles]

Hoo. You guys are going to hate me for this, but I support the Azeri cause. Guaranteeing the integrity of the country’s pre-1991 borders could prove more useful to US foreign policy interests in the region than backing the Armenians.

For one thing, Azerbaijan proper is only one part of the region inhabited by ethnic Azeris, which also includes a significant chunk of northwestern Iran. The Tabriz region of Iran has always been politically unstable and rife with Azeri irredentists, whose desire to reunite with their kith and kin in Azerbaijan can be used as a useful tool to destabilize the Tehran regime and apply significant pressure on them for their breaches of the nuclear agreement.

Secondly, American support for Azerbaijan would counterbalance Russian presence in Armenia, and effectively cut down Russian influence in the Caucasus region. Russian offensives in Georgia in 2008 and effective colonization of Armenia have shown a proactive Russian policy in attempting to reassert dominance over the former Soviet republics, and keeping these nations out of Russia’s sphere of influence denies them strategic depth.

Finally, Baku sits on some of the richest hydrocarbon deposits and some of the busiest hydrocarbon transit corridors in the Caspian and Central Asian regions. Developing Azerbaijan as a key regional ally means undercutting both Russia *and* Iran, both of whom depend on hydrocarbon revenues for their economies.