Hoo. You guys are going to hate me for this, but I support the Azeri cause. Guaranteeing the integrity of the country’s pre-1991 borders could prove more useful to US foreign policy interests in the region than backing the Armenians.
For one thing, Azerbaijan proper is only one part of the region inhabited by ethnic Azeris, which also includes a significant chunk of northwestern Iran. The Tabriz region of Iran has always been politically unstable and rife with Azeri irredentists, whose desire to reunite with their kith and kin in Azerbaijan can be used as a useful tool to destabilize the Tehran regime and apply significant pressure on them for their breaches of the nuclear agreement.
Secondly, American support for Azerbaijan would counterbalance Russian presence in Armenia, and effectively cut down Russian influence in the Caucasus region. Russian offensives in Georgia in 2008 and effective colonization of Armenia have shown a proactive Russian policy in attempting to reassert dominance over the former Soviet republics, and keeping these nations out of Russia’s sphere of influence denies them strategic depth.
Finally, Baku sits on some of the richest hydrocarbon deposits and some of the busiest hydrocarbon transit corridors in the Caspian and Central Asian regions. Developing Azerbaijan as a key regional ally means undercutting both Russia *and* Iran, both of whom depend on hydrocarbon revenues for their economies.
Bruh, I like you, but holy s••• this take is as heavy as a Supernova.
Firstly, with America having such a heavy Armenian Diaspora, the effects of supporting Azerbaijan is a very dangerous gamble electorally. In terms of Geopolitical order, having a nation smack dab in the middle of the Caucasus, who just changed governments through a revolution would be a dumb idea, especially considering that Armenia has that position out of geographic necessity that could rapidly change. American interests are to urge for peace while getting rich off weapon sales here.
Iranian Azerbaijan, the place where modern Iranian nationalism was born, is not “rife with ethnic separatists”. Outside of very real grievances of moments of Persian Chauvinism, such as referring their language to one of bugs, most people in Iranian Azerbaijan don’t particularly want to split from the Country to Azerbaijan of all places, they want to grill Kebab in some place that isn’t the Islamic Republic like most other people. Like most problems in Iran, the first step for the whole population is an increasingly likely revolution some way down the line.
The ones that don’t, like Iranian Arabs, are usually Bourgeois boomers still salty about 1981–1988. They live mostly outside the country and have telecommunications based in Los Angeles, Arlington, London, and Tel Aviv where they angrily pout how the Mullahs took away their property—like most or the salty, right wing Iranian Diaspora. They have less presence and organization in the Azeri populace than either liberals, Shahis, and Marxists there. The only regions in Iran with “serious” ethnic strife are the Ardabil mountains where Lefty Kurdish Boomers and PJAK have a minor thing going on, and Al-Qaeda in Baluchistan.
As Leftists, as you should apparently be, it’s dumb to take sides here. I, pathetically, fell into this trap like a dumba$$ a while ago. Revolutionary defeatism and the realization that the elites of most countries are throwing the youth into a meat grinder should be the position here. Yes, this confrontation was most likely started by Azerbaijan in some cocky way since they thought they’d have
Turkish Support, but it doesn’t matter. Our aims should be peace, prosperity, and empowerment of the working class in both countries to free themselves of their shackles big or small.
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