Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[urutzizu]

The extent of Russian support for Armenia is greatly overstated anyway, from what it used to be in the 90's, it has changed as Turkey is no longer a pro-western and anti-russian power, and the Conflict has in large part been shifted into a proxy conflict of support/opposition to Turkish influence.
Russia *slightly* favors Armenia, but they are mainly interested in the status quo, and is not an anti-Turkish actor, quite the opposite. They are also Azerbaijan's second biggest supplier, and are effectively playing both sides.

Hence the neocon cold-war battlelines of "Assad/Russia/Iran supported Armenia" vs. "pro-western Azerbaijan" are false. Rather in geopolitical orders it is:

Armenia: Greece, UAE, France, Syria, Cyprus, Egypt, India, Saudis
Azerbaijan: Turkey, Qatar, Libya, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Israel (despite being anti-Turkey)

However support for Armenia is chiefly for opportunistic reasons (anti-Turkey) and/or due to internal pressures from the Armenian diaspora (esp. France), whereas support for Azerbaijan from the Turkic countries is generally sincere, stronger and from more geographically relevant players. Hence why every single of these clashes ends up with the Armenians being pushed back further and further bit by bit, with Azerbaijan slowly expanding into Karabakh within what Russia and Turkey permit without spiraling into a major escalation. The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the Serbian Krajina from 1992-1995 in Croatia, and similarly a eventual retake of the Area and a expulsion of the Armenian population is likely.

[urutzizu]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/turkey-sends-sayf-balud-isis-warlord-to-azerbaijan-to-face-off-against-putins-armenian-allies

Report that Turkey is sending former ISIS fighters to fight in Nagornoh-Karabakh.

20 something year old sunnis who joined ISIS to fight shias in Syria, end up being sent to the Caucasus to defend ultrasecular shia turks against armenian christians because Erdogan said so.

We truly live in the best timeline.

[urutzizu]

As it was asked of a rundown of what is happening:

Massive amount of fake news being disseminated from both sides (I'd not trust *anything* you see on social media), but there are few general trendlines:
Azerbaijan is making relatively consistent advances in the areas that are geographically most accessible.



In green the Areas gained by Azerbaijan which can be verified relatively well, except Jabrayil/Cəbrayıl. They claim to have captured Jabrayil (Town in the South West) but that is unable to be verified yet.

The problem for the Armenians is, Armenian air defense is basically gone now, and the Azeris are causing a ton amount of casualties (and, perhaps more importantly, hits to morale) with drone strikes.
Footage can be found very easily (Azerbaijan is playing them on Billboards on streets. Gives you an idea how all of the country is on full war mode) and it is extremely brutal. Probably around 1000 casualties on the publicly released footage alone, which makes you think how bad the total casualties on the Armenian side are. This is what happens in a conflict where one side is totally technologically outmatched, and I don't think Artsakh can sustain defenses in a prolonged battle if they keep getting hit like this.
The more into the Interior of Karabakh you get, the more mountainous it is. Azeris are going to go for a prolonged battle because they cannot win on the ground yet. But soon they will be able to.


from Paul Ronzeheimer, German newspaper Bild Journalist in Armenia (relatively good source for what's actually going on):

Armenians feel left alone in view of the high number of casualties (up to 4,000). Almost everyone knows someone who has been drafted. "Why is Merkel talking so little about the war here?" Asks Mane, who met us at the airport in Yerevan that morning. Front from here 8 hours drive.

Azerbaijan has targeted civilian areas in Karabakh (with what may have been cluster ammuntion), and Armenia has targeted residential areas in Azerbaijan proper in the City of Ganja. In both populations there is practically complete civil mobilisation and total support for the war, (scenes from Baku yesterday after the capture of Madagiz). Make no mistake, as much as the thought may be reassuring, the claims that this is Aliyev's or Pashinyan's war isn't correct. This is also a total war between the populations.

tldr: doesn't look good for Armenia at this stage, but this can change, especially if Iran and Russia decide Turkey is going to far.

[urutzizu]

Armenian front lines in the South collapsing as I post this, Azeris captured Hadrut (large symbolic importance for Armenia) and Füzuli in the last couple of days and then took most of the Border to Iran and made vast gains in Hadrut Province, with little resistance. Azeri Sources claim they have reached the outskirts of the de facto capital of Karabakh Shusha/Shushi, however that is unable to be verified yet, but what is clear is that the Azeris have made very large gains in a very short period of time. The Situation is looking very bad for the Armenians at this stage. All Areas captured by the Azeri Armed Forces are ghost towns/completely deserted of the Armenian inhabitants, as the Armenians are evacuating everything. So effectively ethnic cleansing taking place in Europe, even if it is done out of fear/precaution and not by the Azeris directly. The mood in Azerbaijan is ecstatic over the last few days.

[urutzizu]

I agree with most of it, but I think you overstate the extent of Russia's role on the Armenia's side. If anything, it has been surprising how unwilling relatively Russia has been to intervene on behalf of Armenia.

It's interesting to compare the statements of Russia and various western Countries during the Crisis:

The situation of losing a significant part of Azerbaijani territory cannot be sustained forever

It is deeply regrettable that the hostilities continue, but they are not taking place on Armenian territory. [Russia's obligations under the CSTO] do not extend to Karabakh.

We’re hopeful that the Armenians will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing,

It was determined that the attacks on Sunday came from Azerbaijan, Both sides must comply with the cease-fire. (..) I have noticed the political statements made by Turkey [in favour of Azerbaijan], which I find to be inconsiderate and risky. France is concerned by the warlike messages from Turkey which is in favor of Azerbaijan's reconquering Nagorno-Karabakh. And that we won't accept it, (he added, not mentioning that the region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan)

We receive signals from Armenia to be ready for the talks, but not from Azerbaijan. If Baku continues its position to reject the ceasefire, we must ask ourselves to what extent we can remain neutral towards the parties.

They haven't said so officially, but Russia sees their Interests long term served better as part of closer relations with Turkey and the strengthening of the Moscow-Teheran-Ankara Axis, and that is a only logical choice (and you are seeing similar Movement in Iran with many high profile Clerics and other figures (Yadollah Javani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Naser Makarem Shirazi...) siding with "Muslim Azerbaijan". And Pashinyan, in typical populist fashion (Saakashvili, Elchibey..) failed to understand or was ignorant of the changing regional situation and failed to compromise with Azerbaijan. Aliyev, whilst, yes, a dictator of a corrupt petrostate, understands from a personal perspective how geopolitics works, resisted intense internal pressure and bided his time until Azerbaijan was ready to act. And hence all the takes by Western Observers before September about how the Azeri Army was a incompetent, corrupt Organisation with no morale and doomed to fail against the superior Armenian defence fell apart in spectacular fashion.

The Azeri Armed Forces have likely retaken almost half of Artsakh. There are some positive noises from both sides over the last day, Pashinyan has said Armenia is ready for "compromise solutions" and Aliyev mentioned the possibility of considering something like "cultural autonomy". But Armenians have very few Cards left. I suppose either way Pashinyan is more or less finished internally in Armenia.