Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[PSOL]

Because now there’s an actual war going on. First conflict starting in this pandemic.

[PSOL]

I had no idea that tensions had flared back up until I saw this. Hopefully cooler heads prevail. I am, however, worried that if this thing does devolves into a full scale war, and Azerbaijan gets the upper hand and pushes into Nagorno-Karabakh, we could see a massive humanitarian crisis with the expulsion of the Armenian population there.

https://twitter.com/FJNewsReporter/status/1310254422275088392?s=09

[PSOL]

Azerbaijan could annex a lot of NK proper in the coming conflict, which is the most highly populated part of the area.

[PSOL]

I’m surprised that neither Iran nor Russia are stepping up here outside of transporting weaponry. For example, Iran has its official channels calling for peace while individual representatives from Northern Iran are defending Azerbaijan.

The largest changing of lines of territory since the Nagorno-Karabakh war and not any evident moves going on to help Armenia.

[PSOL]

https://ria.ru/20201022/granitsa-1581048960.html

The entire Iranian border of Artsakh is now fully controlled by Azerbaijan. If the Azeris don’t annex all of NK and the previous Azeri territory now, they will definitely in the next incursion so long as no other force is militarily involved in aid of Armenia.

Honestly, the saying that Russia has lost control over its border regions and spheres by the Western Liberal establishment might actually be true. If so, and if for some odd chance that Belarus and Kyrgyzstan fall to more anti-Russian leadership and the inner protests don’t stop, I don’t see Vladimir Putin remaining in charge much longer. Worse still for the current leadership is if for some insane possibility a color revolution succeeds again in Serbia.

From me reading up on this conflict a bit, what I’m reading is that drone warfare is vital in the current success of the Azerbaijani armed forces, and that now there could be a huge push by anyone with the means in buying their own drones. Such measures for less economically strong and secure countries are more cost-effective than drone defense. For the record, as I am not a military expert, I cannot say if such logic is true or false, it is merely what is being said in the limited areas I am getting this information.

Furthermore, by all accounts I could have gotten this info out of someone’s behind. Can anyone well versed in the applicable fields provide #analysis of the situation. I would like to hear from our Russian posters here as well to get the correct take on all this from “the ground”. How did it get this bad?

[PSOL]

Shusha has been taken by Azerbaijan, which is smack dab in the middle of N-K. There is a very high probability that they will just leave a rump territory for now as a way for peace (or not if they want to keep fighting)

[PSOL]

So there’s both protests and a coup according to varied political discords. This doesn’t seem good.

[PSOL]

If, and this is a very big if, Iran gets militarily involved then all eyes are on what Turkey may do. Azerbaijan’s military cannot defend itself against Iran’s numerous military branches and I seriously doubt Israeli intel can bridge that gap. Of course, Turkey getting militarily involved would destroy the economy given the importance of Iranian trade.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/AliTahmizian/status/1507838457984524291?s=20&t=rf7o8ETve...

I am pretty sure that Iran would defeat Azerbaijan in about 5 minutes if a war broke out. Iran has arguably the worlds strongest military (~30 million members when counting the Basij paramilitary) and Azerbaijan only has around 800,000 military members.

Have the Iraq War and current Ukraine conflict taught you nothing? Troop counts are not everything. Your count of Iranian troops is absurd (half the Iranian population...lol), but even if it wasn't, throwing half trained conscripts against well-equipped Azerbaijani troops is a recipe for dead conscripts and not much else. Considering how much more technologically advanced the Azerbaijanis are, as well as Iran's need to spread troops across the country and not just along the Azerbaijani border, I think it more than plausible Azerbaijan could hold its ground, and even expand, especially with likely American and international support.

Iran will have firm support from Russia, China, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the other "Axis of Resistance" members in such a conflict. If all of those entities intervene, then Iran will have all of Azerbaijan conquered in just a few hours at the most.

It seriously makes me feel ill from seeing this conversation

The Iranian armed forces meant for dealing with foreign concerns, consisting of the Artesh (regular army) and Sepah (IRCG), is not exactly “low-tech” unless you count the aging warplanes that will not be deployed in a conventional fight what with drones being a preferred choice. Iran has been mainly focusing on jamming technology and avoidance of detection for its infantry, and in all other categories it is “close enough” with its neighbors and makes up for any deficiencies with its experiences fighting across the region; the Artesh does have experience from the initial war in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the recent wars in Iraq to pull from. While Iran does have a larger population, Matt rose is just being a troll, no way their involvement will be anything but acting in a support role with some involvement by the special forces and Sepah. Also, in no way can the Iranian government convince the militia leaders it is allied with, nor want them, engaged in another front given they have more pressing matters “at home” to deal with.

The Azerbaijan armed forces are overrated, and while they will put up steep resistance, that is mainly due to the Israeli and Turkish intel (mainly Israeli geolocation services) and drones. Sure they bought a bunch of nice toys from their oil money and have experience, but they won decisively due to foreign support. Even with their shopping spree, most Azerbaijani conscripts mix old equipment from the Soviet era with newer purchases too, not to the extent of Iran’s situation, but still pretty bad. They would suffer from counterintelligence operations crushing them and a fight on most of their border, lol at the idea they would “expand”.

If, and this is a very big if, Iran gets militarily involved then all eyes are on what Turkey may do. Azerbaijan’s military cannot defend itself against Iran’s numerous military branches and I seriously doubt Israeli intel can bridge that gap. Of course, Turkey getting militarily involved would destroy the economy given the importance of Iranian trade.

If this is the case, then given the potential second and third order effects, let's hope Turkey can rein in its dog.

Azerbaijan is *not* a Turkish proxy, so I’m not sure how much leeway they can do here.