Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Tintrlvr]

Is there any concern that Armenia might ethnically cleanse Azeris if it gains the upper hand or is Azerbaijan the only combatant with genocidal intent?

There aren't really any Azeris left in areas the Armenians claim (that genocide happened in the 90s). I don't think Armenia is interested in pushing further into Azerbaijan than they already controlled pre-conflict, except possibly Nakhchivan.

[Tintrlvr]

So maybe this is more part of the below-the-radar dialogue rather than anything in the news, but do we have any specific source prompting other posters' use of the word "genocide" in this conflict? Or is it more the implication of what would happen if Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh? Additionally, I see one poster attributing the desire for genocide to enmity towards Christianity. Is that really true? Though religious language has probably helped to further define the sides, I don't know that this differs from any other ethnic conflict regardless of faith. In that vein, this would strike me as even more out-there than the claim that the Yugoslav Wars were the first "religious war" of the post-1991 world. Armenian and Azeri ethnic differences are far stronger than in Yugoslavia, as Azeris are Turkic whereas Armenians are distinct from all major ethnic groupings, and I daresay that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have ignited regardless of who was what religion.

As for whose fault this is and all that, let's try to get the timeline cleared up. Per Armenian claims (via BBC), the first move was made by Azerbaijan, which shelled civilian settlements on Sunday morning (27 September 2020), resulting in military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijani authorities in turn have attributed five civilian deaths to the Armenians. Martial law and military mobilization appear to have first been declared by Armenia then by Azerbaijan, with the latter declaring mobilization on today, Monday 28 September 2020 (per CNN). There are those that seem to believe that Armenia has no reason to start a war, and that seems correct to me, given that the objective for both sides is under Armenia suzerainty and has been for decades, so that would presumably point more towards Azerbaijan as the instigator.

@PSOL I'm trying to find more on there being a declaration of war, but everything that comes up is from yesterday and seems related to the aforementioned martial law/mobilization rather than a separate act.

Interestingly or not, Mikheil Saakashvili has apparently sided with Azerbaijan. Unsurprising, as Georgia's fuel dependence on Azerbaijan has determined a generally friendly relationship between the two since 1991, whereas Armenia probably has little that Georgia values. Additionally, one can see a congruence of interests in both countries opposing ethnic breakaway regions in parts of what would otherwise be each nation's "sovereign territory".

It is interesting though in that there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.

Also has a large Azeri minority. The province of Javakheti in Georgia, on the Armenian border, is narrowly majority-Armenian, while the province of Kvemo Kartli on the Azeri border is uniformly Azeri along the southern border.

(In general, because of Stalin's influence, when the boundaries of the Transcaucasian Soviet Republicans were drawn up Georgia received very favorable lines, which has not necessarily worked out to its advantage in the post-1991 world).

On the flip side, the only one of the three of the South Caucasus states that remains fully intact territorially is Armenia, partly because its borders were so shrunken as to provide it overall ethnic heterogeneity.

I think you mean homogeneity.

The largest ethnic minority in Armenia proper (not including Artsakh) are Yazidis, at about 1.5% of the population. Every other group, even Russians, are under 0.5%.

The Azeri population was significant at the time of independence (around 3% in the 1989 census) but of course quickly relocated elsewhere.

[Tintrlvr]

Is there any concern that Armenia might ethnically cleanse Azeris if it gains the upper hand or is Azerbaijan the only combatant with genocidal intent?

There aren't really any Azeris left in areas the Armenians claim (that genocide happened in the 90s). I don't think Armenia is interested in pushing further into Azerbaijan than they already controlled pre-conflict, except possibly Nakhchivan.

The fact it has a border (even if only a very small one) with Turkey may prove a deterrent there.

I mean, I agree Turkey wouldn't let Armenia take over Nakhchivan (although Nakhchivan barely has a border with Turkey, just a single bridge; if Turkey wanted to stop an Armenian invasion of Nakhchivan, they'd have to invade Armenia proper). It's just the only pre-war Azerbaijan-controlled territory Armenia would even want.