Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[palandio]

An important distinction that should be made is between Nagorno-Karabakh proper and the surrounding areas that are under control of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, too.

Nagorno-Karabakh proper has been a majority Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan for a long time. The Azeri minority was ethnically cleansed in the 80s/90s (like the Armenian/Azeri minorities in mainland Azerbaijan/Armenia).

The area inbetween had been majority Azeri and Kurdish until it was conquered by the Armenians. It is now mostly depopulated with some Armenian Syrian refugees and displaced earthquake victims living here and there. To see the extent of the depopulation just take a look at satellite immages of e.g. the towns of Kalbajar or Zangilan with all the ruins.

Armenia/Artsakh has said in the past that it is ready to give back the areas inbetween (with the possible exception of the town of Lachin to make a road connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh), but not Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan on the other hand wants the whole area back.

For Russia/Putin Armenia is probably mostly a pawn. Under the right circumstances the guy would sell his own grandmother. On the other hand I doubt that he would be ready to give up on Artsakh just for nothing. Firstly keeping a frozen conflict is probably valuable for him. Secondly it is bad optics to let fall an ally. Thirdly it is a pawn in the greater regional conflict with Turkey.

The instigator of this is of course Erdogan (and Azerbaijan's leadership was happy to follow) who tries to imitate Putin and open up conflicts on the regional chessboard.

[palandio]

We need a map to see what is going on.

You mean something like liveUAmap?

[palandio]

[...]
tldr: doesn't look good for Armenia at this stage, but this can change, especially if Iran and Russia decide Turkey is going to far.

I would be surprised if Russia and Iran hadn't communicated any red lines to Turkey. The questions are:
1. What/Where are these red lines?
2. Does Erdogan intend to respect these red lines?
3. What happens if he doesn't?

[palandio]

So Armenia called for Russian support and Russia said "Yes, we will intervene if Armenia is attacked inside the territory of Armenia proper".

Which means "We will stand aside while Azerbaijan and Turkey take all of NK".

My impression is that Armenia and Artsakh have basically almost no cards left. NK will get under Azerbaijani control again soon. The only thing that the Armenian population of Artsakh can still put hope in is that most of the former Autonomous Oblast proper is still under Armenian control (except Hadrut) and that behind the scenes there might be some pressure on Azerbaijan to refrain from ethnically cleansing the local Armenian population. Maybe.

[palandio]

Am I the only one who sees parallels between Armenia 2020 and Azerbaijan 1992-1994 (and many other countries when they are losing wars)? A bad situation on the front, a public opinion unable to accept making concessions, governments stumbling over their inability to deliver victories, internal unrest?