Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

These countries have some very strange allies... Alliances this weird haven't been seen since the Nigerian Civil War?

I think this one is weirder.

Russia, France, and Israel vs US, UK, Iran, and Sudan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Libyan_Civil_War

That one also had US v.s. Blackwater, since Erik Prince's mercenaries flew bomber jets (by which I mean weaponised and most likely imprecise crop dusters) for Haftar. The other side's air force also employed PMC pilots.

[Cashew]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessarily, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.

This has nothing to do with likeability, if Armenia is defeated NK is getting ethnically cleansed.

[Isaak]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessarily, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.

This has nothing to do with likeability, if Armenia is defeated NK is getting ethnically cleansed.

Pure speculation on your part. Just claiming that something terrible may happen is a weak argument compared to national sovereignty/territorial integrity as core principles of international law – and since one can neither prove nor disprove it, it's a pretty pointless one as well.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessarily, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.

This has nothing to do with likeability, if Armenia is defeated NK is getting ethnically cleansed.

Pure speculation on your part. Just claiming that something terrible may happen is a weak argument compared to national sovereignty/territorial integrity as core principles of international law – and since one can neither prove nor disprove it, it's a pretty pointless one as well.

The precedent is but two years old; the same dictator rules Azerbaijan and uses the rhetoric of Putin. The racist anti-Armenian trophy park (I wish I was making this up) still stands and is open to children.

Interventions have been been made on less solid accusations of impending genocide than this one. That's probably not going to happen this time, unfortunately.

Edit: the racist mannequins were removed from the military trophies park in October of last year after Armenia filed a case with the ICJ, so that's something.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Weird alliances are nothing new, Germany and Austria-Hungary we're basically rivals for most of the latter's existence due to both trying to be the dominant German-speaking power but had to ally as the Central Powers and Romania joining the Axis despite having a very anti-Semitic fascist dictator seems weird because they sure were never friendly with Hungary or Bulgaria that Germany forced them to cede land to but based on location didn't have much choice.

In this case Armenia isn't friendly with Turkey unsurprisingly, and traditionally Turkey wasn't friendly with Russia although Erdogan is changing that...or Iran so both made logical allies. And Iran is very unfriendly with Azerbaijan, a Shia theocracy supporting a not even Muslim country over another Shia one seems weird but Azerbaijan is ran by secular ethnonationalists and Iran is actually home to more Azeris than Azerbaijan and its territory is a likely irredentist target especially if Azerbaijan gets its way with Armenia it's not ending there. So hence Iran is against Azerbaijan and on Armenia's side.

[Cashew]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessarily, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.

This has nothing to do with likeability, if Armenia is defeated NK is getting ethnically cleansed.

Pure speculation on your part. Just claiming that something terrible may happen is a weak argument compared to national sovereignty/territorial integrity as core principles of international law – and since one can neither prove nor disprove it, it's a pretty pointless one as well.

This is a country where an ax murderer was pardoned and made a national hero by Aliyev because his victim was Armenian, and state sponsored historical falsification has promoted the idea of Yerevan as part of "west Azerbaijan". "Pure speculation" you say, well assuming that the Armenians of NK will live happily ever after under Azerbaijani rule is far, far beyond speculation. Core principles of international law are not inviolable either, seeing as though the "illegal" independence of Kosovo is usually justified on the grounds of preventing ethic cleansing, but sure the borders are infallible expect for the precedent that supposedly is not a precedent.

[Bilardista]

I don't think the precedent points to any genocide or mass killings, rather to forced displacements, like in the early 90's when armenian forces took over the region and tens of thousands of azeris where forced to flee, or two years ago when armenian inhabitants evacuated the territories devolved to Azerbaijan after the ceasefire.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't think the precedent points to any genocide or mass killings, rather to forced displacements, like in the early 90's when armenian forces took over the region and tens of thousands of azeris where forced to flee, or two years ago when armenian inhabitants evacuated the territories devolved to Azerbaijan after the ceasefire.

Ethnically Armenian inhabitants did not all choose to evacuate two years ago. They suffered multiple beheadings (all the ones that ended up on video were committed by Azerbaijani soldiers, none of whom were punished) before the last of them fled. There were also mass killings back in 1991 - the Azeris "forced to flee" weren't running from nothing.

[Crumpets]

The question of the legal status of NK is kind of moot when Azerbaijan's attacks are targeting Armenia proper, and AFAIK haven't actually hit NK in this latest escalation.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The dispute over NK began before the two were even sovereign countries. "Borders" my ass.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

According to Oryx, Azerbaijan just destroyed the fire control radars for Armenia’s remaining S-300PS long-range air defences. They might be able to salvage some of the lost utility by combining surviving parts with their older S-300PTs, but those are apparently significantly less capable and are probably going to be targeted next. Besides the S-300s, Armenia only has 4 Su-30 jets for long-range air defence - none of which it used in the last conflict.

Even if the conflict ends now, Azerbaijan will have succeeded in significantly reducing the capabilities of Armenia’s air defence network.

Edit: Oryx seems to have edited their article and omitted their claim that all of the remaining S-300PS batteries were struck, although they haven’t revised the number of batteries hit. These are still very costly systems to lose, especially if no one is willing/able to supply spare parts.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Armenia is reluctant to call this a war yet:

https://www.twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1570008061657612288

The same minister was later reported to have said that their territorial integrity was under threat, and as a result they’d asked Russia to fulfill “some” provisions of their defensive alliance. To me, this reads like the minister thinks they won’t get CSTO support and so do not want to call on it and thereby remove the threat of CSTO support. It is possible Russia has told Armenia (through backchannels) just how much they can expect this time.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://t.me/bagramyan26/40645

I didn't translate top to bottom, but seems Azerbaijani forces have engaged Russians in an Armenian town near the border.

[Aurelius]

It's irrelevant whether NK is "ethnically Armenians" or "populated by Armenians" etc. – neither changes the fact that it is internationally recognized Azeri territory and illegally occupied by Armenian forces. One cannot simply ignore or invalidate this just because the Armenians appear more likable.

Objectively, Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim all of its sovereign territory (if necessarily, by force). It does not have the right to attack Armenia proper, of course.

This has nothing to do with likeability, if Armenia is defeated NK is getting ethnically cleansed.

Pure speculation on your part. Just claiming that something terrible may happen is a weak argument compared to national sovereignty/territorial integrity as core principles of international law – and since one can neither prove nor disprove it, it's a pretty pointless one as well.

I care about freedom and justice, not "territorial integrity". In many cases they align, but sure as hell not in this one. Avoiding ethnic cleansing is more important than preserving the Soviets' deliberately retarded borders that were specifically intended to do exactly this.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634

It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

[Aurelius]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

[Lechasseur]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

If Russia does nothing than CSTO probably collapsed like the League of Nations.

If Russia does nothing than it is proven to be a worthless ally.

And yeah Russia seems to have totally destroyed its credibility this year, even with its allies. It's turning itself into a pariah state.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think the precedent points to any genocide or mass killings, rather to forced displacements, like in the early 90's when armenian forces took over the region and tens of thousands of azeris where forced to flee, or two years ago when armenian inhabitants evacuated the territories devolved to Azerbaijan after the ceasefire.

Ethnically Armenian inhabitants did not all choose to evacuate two years ago. They suffered multiple beheadings (all the ones that ended up on video were committed by Azerbaijani soldiers, none of whom were punished) before the last of them fled. There were also mass killings back in 1991 - the Azeris "forced to flee" weren't running from nothing.

And there were mass pogroms of Arnenians in the early 1990 Azerbaijan "events".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

It might well be willing to, but if so, that would only further demonstrate Putin's strategic ineptitude.

Russians whining about how no one wants to be their ally and everyone turns to the US instead should maybe try rubbing their two braincells together for half a second to wonder if that has anything to do with the way Russia treats its allies in times of need.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Iran thought Azerbaijan would become another Iran because it was a shia state when it broke free from the sovjets and was the first to recognize Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan was skeptical and claimed Azeri Iranian territories (territories in Iran where lots of Azeri's live) saying it was theirs, with a wish to unite these lands under Azerbaijan, which angered Iran, and since than Iran has always supported Armenia sort of, officially advocating peace but secretly backing Armenia.

Azerbaijan has done a lot to anger Iran. It also has relations with the US, with Israël and they're hostile to Iran. Europe now also is dependant on Azeri gas supply. Azerbaijan only can exist because of oil. Otherwise it would never have been a state. Azerbaijan used to be "just Iran", just another of the many ethnicities within Iran. They chose the name Azerbaijan while the land they occupy has never been named as such. Azerbaijan is a region inside Iran. The region of Azerbaijan is called Shirvan. It was always Iran or Persia until Russia conquered those territories.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

If Russia does nothing than CSTO probably collapsed like the League of Nations.

If Russia does nothing than it is proven to be a worthless ally.

And yeah Russia seems to have totally destroyed its credibility this year, even with its allies. It's turning itself into a pariah state.

This conflict only started because Russia's losses in Ukraine showed some people that they were weak and now is the time to strike.

But if Azerbaijan makes a lot of gains, I expect Iran to invade Azerbaijan and overthrow the regime, which would anger Turkey.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So any minute now the West is going to apply sanctions on Azerbaijan...right?

Azerbaijan is less likely to be sanctioned by the EU now than that any point in the recent past or near future. Along with Russia’s preoccupation, that is why they instigated this.

We are importing more oil than ever from Azerbaijan because to compensate partially for lack of Russian gas.

There is a reason why the Azeri's are doing this.... . Russia being busy in a costly war and on the losing side and Europe being dependant on Azerbaijan now. There is a power vacuum and they have the Turkish on their side too. Israël isn't going to do anything either.

[rc18]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

If Russia does nothing than CSTO probably collapsed like the League of Nations.

If Russia does nothing than it is proven to be a worthless ally.

And yeah Russia seems to have totally destroyed its credibility this year, even with its allies. It's turning itself into a pariah state.

This conflict only started because Russia's losses in Ukraine showed some people that they were weak and now is the time to strike.

But if Azerbaijan makes a lot of gains, I expect Iran to invade Azerbaijan and overthrow the regime, which would anger Turkey.

Iran would have trouble doing that. Firstly, the Azerbaijani military is very well equipped, and would get further supplied by Turkey and Israel. Secondly, there are tons of Azeris in Iran who wouldn't be happy and would keep the Iranians occupied...

The US would come to Aliyev's aid too in that scenario.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The degree of worry on the ground is greater than yesterday, but I was also at different job sites each day so it is hard to compare.