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October 21, 2020, 02:31:46 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  CBS/YouGov: Perdue +5, Cunningham +10, Graham +1
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Perdue +5, Cunningham +10, Graham +1  (Read 726 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: September 27, 2020, 09:36:58 AM »





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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 09:40:37 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 09:44:59 AM by Roll Roons »

UTDP... The new Isakson in town!

Lindsey really is in trouble, which I would have never expected at the beginning of the year.
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woodley park
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2020, 09:45:36 AM »

Those Tillis numbers are atrocious.
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Splash
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2020, 09:48:31 AM »

I still suspect that Tillis will get a majority of the undecideds in the end but I don't know if that'll be enough to save him.

For Graham, I guess the question is whether enough Trump voters leave the Senate race blank on their ballots to Harrison to squeak through.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2020, 09:53:02 AM »

Not good for Tillis. Undecided will probably break for him, but given that they still havenít gone to him this late and the fact it looks like Biden will narrowly carry NC, doesnít really bode well for his chances. Tilt D. SC is pretty close, but undecideds probably save Graham. I think he wins by 3-5. Lean R. But it really shouldnít be this close at all. GA is a tossup, Perdue is only getting the same share of the vote as Trump, not actually out performing him. Tilt R, closer to lean than tossup.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2020, 09:54:03 AM »

UTDP... The new Isakson in town!

Lindsey really is in trouble, which I would have never expected at the beginning of the year.

It seems like Graham's opportunistic transformation into a staunch Trumpist has hurt his electoral position, rather than helping him. Many Republicans still view him as a craven RINO, and he has alienated suburbanites and independents by tying himself so closely to Trump, while motivating the Democratic base to turnout against him.
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2020, 10:07:11 AM »

Whenever I come to the conclusion that Tillis is in a better position than Collins, a poll like this is being released.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 10:11:45 AM »

I would so much love it to have Graham losing. He's the biggest hypocrite in all of Washington. And that is saying a lot. Him losing would be even more satisfying than Mitch.

Also, lmao at Tillis. I'm relatively confident now this guy is going down in November, even if Trump managed to hang onto North Carolina.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2020, 10:12:40 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 10:27:20 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

GA
1165 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 3.4%
Changes with July 28-31 poll

Perdue 47% (+2)
Ossoff 42% (-1)
Someone else 3% (n/c)
Not sure 8% (-2)

NC
1213 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 3.6%
Changes with July 28-31 poll

Cunningham 48% (n/c)
Tillis 38% (-1)
Someone else 3% (n/c)
Not sure 11% (+2)

SC
1080 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 3.8%

Graham 45%
Harrison 44%
Someone else 2%
Not sure 9%
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2020, 10:13:50 AM »

Tillis is done
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gracile
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2020, 10:14:28 AM »

Whenever I come to the conclusion that Tillis is in a better position than Collins, a poll like this is being released.

I mean, they're both in serious trouble.
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2020, 10:26:18 AM »

Whenever I come to the conclusion that Tillis is in a better position than Collins, a poll like this is being released.

I mean, they're both in serious trouble.

Yeah, but Republicans will have to pull off an upset in one of ME/NC/MI to save the Senate, and right now Iím not sure which race is their best bet (I know all are difficult). Iíd be more confident about MI  if the NRSC was actually serious about contesting that race (the way theyíve handled MI is inexcusable).
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2020, 10:43:07 AM »

Wait... so South Carolina is looking better for Dems then Georgia?

Remember when everyone ate me alive for saying Georgia is the biggest fools gold of any state in the past 4-5 election cycles? When I said Texas was more likely to go blue then Georgia?

Georgia is going to be Republican in all 3 major races. Even if Biden wins 350 EV & wins the popular vote by 8-10%. Itís still not going Dem for any race. Period.

In other news good god would that be sweet if Graham lost and even sweeter if the SCOTUS is what did him in
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2020, 10:44:33 AM »

LOL @Perdue outperforming Graham. Bologna
Tillis will get a majority of undecided but this time that won't be enough
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2020, 10:51:53 AM »

GA is a primary unless, someone gets 50 on election day
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DrScholl
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2020, 10:57:53 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 11:07:44 AM by DrScholl »

Democrats received a combined 54% of the primary vote vs. Republicans in Georgia this year. In 2018 the variance between primary votes was very minimal, but Republicans had the advantage. Democrats have a good cushion to work with here, so I'm still saying that the state flips.

On examining the cross tabs, 9% of Black voters are undecided in the Senate race and Ossoff is only at 73% with Black voters, so he has room to grow.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2020, 11:01:58 AM »

Perdue has maintained a narrow but consistent advantage in most of the polls, and he is certainly in a better position than Tillis, who has trailed in virtually every poll throughout the campaign season. I think it's fair to say that Georgia is Tossup/Lean R and North Carolina is Tossup/Lean D, although Perdue and Cunningham are by no means a guarantee to win, and both Ossoff and Tillis can still comeback. As for South Carolina, Graham retains a narrow advantage, but it's even clearer than it was before that he is vulnerable. It's probably fair to call South Carolina Tossup/Lean R at this point as well.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2020, 11:04:49 AM »

Jaime is Beto confirmed?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2020, 11:32:13 AM »

Most of the undecideds in the SC Senate race are Trump voters who aren't firm on Lindsey, I suppose.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2020, 12:01:18 PM »

SC is pure toss-up. How many polls like this will it take before people accept it?
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2020, 12:01:50 PM »

Wait... so South Carolina is looking better for Dems then Georgia?

Remember when everyone ate me alive for saying Georgia is the biggest fools gold of any state in the past 4-5 election cycles? When I said Texas was more likely to go blue then Georgia?

Georgia is going to be Republican in all 3 major races. Even if Biden wins 350 EV & wins the popular vote by 8-10%. Itís still not going Dem for any race. Period.

In other news good god would that be sweet if Graham lost and even sweeter if the SCOTUS is what did him in

Biden could win GA even if we get neither Senate seat.
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Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2020, 03:07:09 PM »

SC is pure toss-up. How many polls like this will it take before people accept it?

It's sounding a lot like the 2018 TX Senate race & this years TX Presidential race.

- Polls showing a closer race than expected: "It'd be cool but no. I'll believe it when I see it"
- Races end up being within 3%: "I didn't expect it to be this close!"
- 2 years from now if SC/TX don't flip: "Dems should've invested more in SC/TX. They were absolutely flippable"
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2020, 04:03:47 PM »

SC is pure toss-up. How many polls like this will it take before people accept it?
Probably because Trump is up 10 points in the same sample, and the vast majority of undecideds in the senate race, lean R.. who will more or likely come home for Graham in the end.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2020, 04:31:34 PM »

These Georgia results seem weird with the overall national picture and what is happening in similar states.
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2020, 05:18:23 PM »

Wait... so South Carolina is looking better for Dems then Georgia?

Remember when everyone ate me alive for saying Georgia is the biggest fools gold of any state in the past 4-5 election cycles? When I said Texas was more likely to go blue then Georgia?

Georgia is going to be Republican in all 3 major races. Even if Biden wins 350 EV & wins the popular vote by 8-10%. Itís still not going Dem for any race. Period.

In other news good god would that be sweet if Graham lost and even sweeter if the SCOTUS is what did him in
Sir hush. You're still wrong and sound deluded. Come back after the actual voting has taken place.
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