NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS (user search)
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  NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS  (Read 2865 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: September 27, 2020, 01:38:43 PM »

MI:
Wayne County (Detroit) - Biden 64-31 (+33)
Southeast - Biden 66-30 (+36)
Eastern Central - Trump 54-43 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 48-46 (+2)
North Central/Upper Peninsula - Trump 64-33 (+31)

Blacks - Biden 90-7 (+83)
White Catholics - Biden 48-47 (+1)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MI-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009251227.pdf#page=3

WI:
Milwaukee County - Biden 77-22 (+55)
Chiwaukee Suburbs - Trump 57-40 (+17)
Dane County - Biden 85-13 (+72)
Fox River Valley/Northern Lakeshore - Trump 53-42 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 52-44 (+8)
North - Trump 53-44 (+9)

White Catholics - Trump 51/47 (+4)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Likely-Voters-NOS-and-Tables_202009251238.pdf#page=3

I wish I knew what counties are in each region...

My guesses:

uid=30797]
MI:
Wayne County (Detroit) - Biden 64-31 (+33) (Detroit, of course, and such suburbs as Livonia and River Rouge)
Southeast - Biden 66-30 (+36) (Ann Arbor)
Eastern Central - Trump 54-43 (+11) (Flint, Saginaw, Midland, Mount Pleasant, Port Huron)
Southwest - Biden 48-46 (+2) (Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Holland, Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, St. Joseph)
North Central/Upper Peninsula - Trump 64-33 (+31) (the UP, Traverse City, Alpena, Cadillac)

I can't figure where Lansing and East Lansing would fit.

Blacks - Biden 90-7 (+83)
White Catholics - Biden 48-47 (+1)

White Catholics (in Michigan, the Irish and Germans that you would expect everywhere with larger contingents of Polish-Americans and Arab Catholics than elsewhere and smaller contingent of Italian-Americans) had been drifting R on economic issues from what one would have expected in the Great Depression. On the other hand, white Catholics are probably above average now in formal education, which hurts Trump this year.

If you are wondering about Catholics with French surnames in Michigan -- many of those are really "First Peoples", and non-white.  One largely-Catholic group, Hispanics, is growing rapidly in Michigan.  They likewise do not generally count as white, and I would expect them to be hostile to Trump. They are dirt-poor, they respect formal education for their kids -- or both.

Michigan is for Trump this year about what Indiana was for Obama in 2012... a bare win, and (for now at least)  a fluke. Michigan looks like a blowout loss for Trump.  

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MI-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009251227.pdf#page=3

WI:
Milwaukee County - Biden 77-22 (+55) (Milwaukee, of course)
Chiwaukee Suburbs - Trump 57-40 (+17) (Racine, Kenosha)
Dane County - Biden 85-13 (+72) (Madison)
Fox River Valley/Northern Lakeshore - Trump 53-42 (+11) (Green Bay, Appleton, Sheboygan)
Southwest - Biden 52-44 (+8) (Mississippi River Valley in Wisconsin? Winona and Eau Claire, probably)
North - Trump 53-44 (+9) (Superior, Wausau. Rhinelander)

White Catholics - Trump 51/47 (+4)

Close to even. Dutch-Americans are largely Protestant in Michigan and more Catholic in Wisconsin. Dutch-Americans are only about as politically conservative as Cubans of the first wave of Castro-refugees and their descendants, whether Protestant or Catholic. Belgian-Americans are fairly common in Wisconsin but scarce in  Michigan. The white Catholic population in Wisconsin is otherwise much like that of Michigan.

Trump's chances of winning either state are best described as "drowning".

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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,839
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 07:44:43 PM »

Glad to see Whitmer with such a good approval rating. The deplorables who've been at the Capitol with their pathetic guns to intimidate her and the state legislators don't seem to be helping their cause or their tangerine tyrant.

The anti-mask protests can do more to sicken, maim, and kill participants than to hurt the standing of Governor Gretchen Whitmer. She took a chance that could have backfired badly. I occasionally see signs that say "The Governor is an idiot"... usually around a huge Trump banner or sign.

The Darwin Awards will be flooded with people who did stupid things involving COVID-19. I am already thinking of a nomination for a former city councilman of a rather large city, someone who as an elected official should have taken appropriate heed instead of denying the danger and being wrong -- dead wrong

Michigan has gone down in the standings... among states in COVID-19 deaths.

Michigan's right wing is as nasty as that in any state. It seems to love the word deplorable... it must confuse the word with "adorable".
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