NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS
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  NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS
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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Biden +8 in MI, Biden +10 in WIS  (Read 2484 times)
Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« on: September 27, 2020, 08:05:14 AM »
« edited: September 27, 2020, 08:08:26 AM by Hindsight is 2020 »

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 08:09:11 AM »

Too good to be true.

I only believe it when I see it.
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2020, 08:10:45 AM »

Trump approval
MI 43/52 (-9)
WI 42/54 (-12)

Whitmer approval: 56/40 (+16)
Evers approval: 50/43 (+7)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 40/56 in MI, 40/58 in WI
Biden: 47/46 in MI, 50/46 in WI
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2020, 08:10:51 AM »

Too good to be true.

I only believe it when I see it.

There have been many polls now near these numbers.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2020, 08:15:37 AM »

Interesting thst their LV model helps Biden in WI.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2020, 08:21:21 AM »

And here I thought this was gonna be a nut-free Sunday...
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pppolitics
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2020, 08:24:26 AM »

There is no "WIS"
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Georgia Democrat in 2023
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 08:25:05 AM »

Discussing the results now on MSNBC with Ali Velshi.  Biden running even or slightly ahead on crime issues, blowing out Trump on handling race relations.  
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2020, 08:33:55 AM »

Biden is clearly ahead by a few points in these states, but I don't really trust Marist "We still refuse to weight by education" Poll all that much in the rust belt.  

The numbers seem less egregious in Michigan on this poll, maybe their weighting-by-region thing helped a bit.  But still too high on college educated whites in Wisconsin.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2020, 08:35:52 AM »

Biden is clearly ahead by a few points in these states, but I don't really trust Marist "We still refuse to weight by education" all that much in the rust belt. 

The numbers seem less egregious in Michigan on this poll, maybe their weighting-by-region thing helped a bit.  But still too high on college educated whites in Wisconsin.

I think the WI sample being too college educated should cancel out with them having a too small Black sample (only 4% Black when 2018 exits had a 9% Black electorate).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2020, 08:38:27 AM »

MI
September 19-23
799 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Biden 52%
Trump 44%
Other 1%
Undecided 3%

WI
September 20-24
727 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Biden 54%
Trump 44%
Other 1%
Undecided 1%
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2020, 08:44:12 AM »

If Biden wins Wisconsin by 6 instead of 10, it's still a pretty bad night for the GOP. That's what their idiot supporters seem to have trouble comprehending.
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Splash
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2020, 08:45:31 AM »

The averages point to Biden being up in Wisconsin by about six to seven points. If that's the case, you're going to see some polls showing Biden up eight to ten points in addition to the others showing him up only three or four points. Same story with Michigan.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2020, 09:03:33 AM »

Biden is clearly ahead by a few points in these states, but I don't really trust Marist "We still refuse to weight by education" Poll all that much in the rust belt.  

The numbers seem less egregious in Michigan on this poll, maybe their weighting-by-region thing helped a bit.  But still too high on college educated whites in Wisconsin.

Wisconsinís college attainment percentage is 38.7. Itís 39% in this poll. 
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2020, 09:35:42 AM »

If Trump doesnít have enough votes in Wisconsin, then he doesnít have enough votes.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2020, 09:39:35 AM »

Marist is horrible, but these polls are in line with everyone else in these states.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2020, 09:39:41 AM »

Biden is clearly ahead by a few points in these states, but I don't really trust Marist "We still refuse to weight by education" Poll all that much in the rust belt.  

The numbers seem less egregious in Michigan on this poll, maybe their weighting-by-region thing helped a bit.  But still too high on college educated whites in Wisconsin.

Wisconsinís college attainment percentage is 38.7. Itís 39% in this poll. 

This poll is 35% college educated whites, the correct number is more like 30% or 29%.  I'm aware that exit polls have showed it higher, but a lot of people have clearly shown that exit polls are systematically garbage on this.  Anyway, Biden's still almost certainly ahead in Wisconsin by mid single digits, maybe I'm nitpicking too much.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2020, 10:06:43 AM »

There does seem to be an emerging pattern that SCOTUS vacancy controversy has moved the race a couple points in Bidenís favor.  He just needs to hold steady through the debates now.
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bandg
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2020, 10:09:18 AM »

Marist was atrocious in the Walker/Evers race in 2018. Had Evers +13, and +10.
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VAR
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2020, 10:16:44 AM »

MI:
Wayne County (Detroit) - Biden 64-31 (+33)
Southeast - Biden 66-30 (+36)
Eastern Central - Trump 54-43 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 48-46 (+2)
North Central/Upper Peninsula - Trump 64-33 (+31)

Blacks - Biden 90-7 (+83)
White Catholics - Biden 48-47 (+1)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_MI-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009251227.pdf#page=3

WI:
Milwaukee County - Biden 77-22 (+55)
Chiwaukee Suburbs - Trump 57-40 (+17)
Dane County - Biden 85-13 (+72)
Fox River Valley/Northern Lakeshore - Trump 53-42 (+11)
Southwest - Biden 52-44 (+8)
North - Trump 53-44 (+9)

White Catholics - Trump 51/47 (+4)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_WI-Likely-Voters-NOS-and-Tables_202009251238.pdf#page=3
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2020, 10:56:18 AM »

Trump is gonna fill the vacancy regardless
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2020, 11:09:27 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 11:14:26 AM by Alben Barkley »

Letís dispel once and for all with this fiction that Wisconsin is significantly to the right of MI/PA.

And by the way, any other candidate but Trump polling this badly this consistently would be considered dead in the water. ANY other.

No one would even consider Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. factors. It would be Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Georgia considered the true battlegrounds. The only question would be how much Biden would win by, not if he wins at all.

Itís just laughable how people are able to spin an endless onslaught of objectively terrible numbers for Trump as somehow good for him or at least not good for Biden. 2016 really warped some peopleís ability to think straight, huh?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2020, 11:41:44 AM »

Is Trump still running ads in Wisconsin?
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Buzz
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« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2020, 11:45:40 AM »

Not exactly what I was hoping to see this morning.  Great polling this morning for Joe Biden.
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kireev
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2020, 11:55:06 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 01:35:24 PM by kireev »

MI likely voters sample: 31% Dem, 31% Rep Party ID, 37% college graduates, 12% black, age 18-29 - 13%.
WI likely voters sample: 31% Dem, 31% Rep Party ID, 39% college graduates, 4% black, age 18-39 - 11%.

It's a pretty good sample, definitely not DEM-friendly, maybe slightly GOP-friendly. Trump is losing just because he is pretty weak with whites across the board.
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