CA-UC Berkeley: Biden +39

[VAR]

Sep 9-15, 5942 LV

Biden 67%
Trump 28%

https://www.kqed.org/news/11839535/poll-biden-leads-trump-by-39-points-in-california-ahead-in-every-region

[One Term Floridian]

Like I said before, Biden def has more than an outside chance at cracking 70% in Cali

[Sir Mohamed]

I love my state 😍

[Skill and Chance]

This lead is in Solid South territory.  Will screw Dems out of the EC in the long term if this is the new normal.  Other polls have it in 2016 territory though so IDK.

[bilaps]

It sounds silly but if it's true it's actualy a good news for Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

It sounds silly but if it's true it's actualy a good news for Trump.

It's 10% better for Biden than the other recent CA polls though, so be careful.

[Calthrina950]

This lead is in Solid South territory.  Will screw Dems out of the EC in the long term if this is the new normal.  Other polls have it in 2016 territory though so IDK.

I would certainly agree with this, and it is undeniable, in my view, that much of Biden's polling leads over Trump-namely, the polls which have him up by around 9-10% or more-have been fueled by his significantly improving upon Hillary Clinton in heavily Democratic states, while the battleground states have generally remained tigher than the national margin. I don't think Democrats should be celebrating the fact that California has become so heavily one-sided in favor of their party, at least from an electoral perspective.

Trump was able to win the Electoral College last time because his votes were more efficiently distributed than Clinton's; this is one aspect where the Republican monopoly over the majority of the nation's counties, and the Democratic confinement to scattered, highly populated metropolitan clusters (along with the occasional majority-minority, liberal white, or college town-dominated county), works to the former's benefit. It is true that "land doesn't vote; people do", but the Electoral College isn't structured that way, and Democrats need to keep that in mind going forward.

At any rate, if Biden truly did get 67% in California, that would constitute a better performance than what even Betty Yee, the best-performing statewide Democrat in California in 2018, got that year. It would mean that Orange County is probably going for Biden by double digits; that Riverside County would be giving him an absolute majority; that San Bernardino County would also be going to Biden by double digits; and that he is flipping Butte County, which Trump narrowly won last time. It would also turn Lake, San Luis Obispo, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties into majority wins for him. I could even see Biden coming within single digits in Kern and Tulare Counties, with this kind of performance.

[Skill and Chance]

This lead is in Solid South territory.  Will screw Dems out of the EC in the long term if this is the new normal.  Other polls have it in 2016 territory though so IDK.

I would certainly agree with this, and it is undeniable, in my view, that much of Biden's polling leads over Trump-namely, the polls which have him up by around 9-10% or more-have been fueled by his significantly improving upon Hillary Clinton in heavily Democratic states, while the battleground states have generally remained tigher than the national margin. I don't think Democrats should be celebrating the fact that California has become so heavily one-sided in favor of their party, at least from an electoral perspective.

Trump was able to win the Electoral College last time because his votes were more efficiently distributed than Clinton's; this is one aspect where the Republican monopoly over the majority of the nation's counties, and the Democratic confinement to scattered, highly populated metropolitan clusters (along with the occasional majority-minority, liberal white, or college town-dominated county), works to the former's benefit. It is true that "land doesn't vote; people do", but the Electoral College isn't structured that way, and Democrats need to keep that in mind going forward.

At any rate, if Biden truly did get 67% in California, that would constiute a better performance than what even Betty Yee, the best-performing statewide Democrat in California in 2018, got that year. It would mean that Orange County is probably going for Biden by double digits; that Riverside County would be giving him an absolute majority; that San Bernardino County would also be going to Biden by double digits; and that he is flipping Butte County, which Trump narrowly won last time. It would also turn Lake, San Luis Obispo, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties into majority wins for him. I could even see Biden coming within single digits in Kern and Tulare Counties, with this kind of performance.

Biden would set the all-time Dem record in California if this poll is accurate.  FDR got 66.95% in 1936.

[Podgy the Bear]

I would love 500,000 of those Biden votes to be in the swing states so that the EV majority becomes permanent.  Too late for that now...

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I would love 500,000 of those Biden votes to be in the swing states so that the EV majority becomes permanent.  Too late for that now...

Swing states or small states like Montana and the Dakotas.

[President Johnson]

Massive freedom state!

I wonder by how much Joe Biden would win Orange County if he takes the entire state by a margin of 40 points (or close to that)?

[MT Treasurer]

On the one hand, this is good because it refutes the annoying "CA is maxed out for Democrats/Clinton was a uniquely good fit for CA" take. On the other hand, there’s a reason CA and TX had a virtually identical Democratic swing/trend in 2016...

[Alben Barkley]

This lead is in Solid South territory.  Will screw Dems out of the EC in the long term if this is the new normal.  Other polls have it in 2016 territory though so IDK.

Doing better in California will not in itself screw us out of the EC. It just means our national popular vote lead might have to be a couple points higher before we can consider it safe. But right now, Biden is easily doing well enough in the national polls to more than account for that.

Plus he’s doing just fine in most swing state polls. The MN poll today showing him up 7, for instance, is in line with Biden leading nationally by about 7 points (MN voted the same as the nation last time). That means he should also win MI, WI, PA, etc. Even if all vote to the right of the nation, in part because running up the score in CA inflates his national lead slightly, he’s winning by so much he’ll still win everything he needs to.

In addition, this is just one poll: Others have shown Biden doing about the same or slightly worse than Hillary in CA. And plenty of polls of other states suggest it is not just CA and states like it accounting for his large national lead; all indications are states like OH that trended heavily to Trump have snapped back hard, states like AZ and TX that were trending left are continuing to do so, and Biden’s doing better even in deep red states as well.

In short, he’s doing better across the board than Hilary. I would genuinely not be surprised if there is not a single state he underperforms her in.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Damned if you do: "Dems are maxed out in CA. It'll trend R from here on out"

Damned if you don't: "Dems aren't maxed out in CA. It'll screw D's in the EC from here on out"


Or, in other words: "We wanted to dominate in the biggest state of the country, but not by this much!!"

[Holmes]

If that 20% lead in Orange County and 40% lead in San Diego county are accurate, Republicans are extinct here.

[NOVA Green]

If that 20% lead in Orange County and 40% lead in San Diego county are accurate, Republicans are extinct here.

Those numbers from the Central Valley are an exclamation point to your comment above.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If that 20% lead in Orange County and 40% lead in San Diego county are accurate, Republicans are extinct here.

I've said it before, but it's sure looking likely that OC will only send 1 GOP State Senator & 1 GOP Assemblyperson to Sacramento after November. Incredible.

I'd say the CA GOP can find refuge in the Inland Empire, but that's looking just as bad poll-wise.

To folks on the outside looking in, CA Dems ain't "maxed out". Not by a longshot

[politicallefty]

I've been a skeptic that Biden could get to a 40 point margin in the state, but my skepticism is eroding. My prediction for awhile has been Biden by 36-38. I've believed for a long time now that Trump will be <30% in the state in the end. I still don't think Biden can get to 70% though. California usually has one of the higher third-party votes in the country, which I would expect to be 3-4% this year (though probably closer to 3% in the end). I think Biden's ceiling in the state is probably 68%. I'm not someone that lowballs Democratic performance in California. Most people weren't predicting Obama to cross 60% in both 2008 and 2012 while I was predicting just that.

[One Term Floridian]

This lead is in Solid South territory.  Will screw Dems out of the EC in the long term if this is the new normal.  Other polls have it in 2016 territory though so IDK.

Aaaaaand now it gets depressing. I didn’t think of it this way before...

[Ferguson97]

This lead is in Solid South territory.  Will screw Dems out of the EC in the long term if this is the new normal.  Other polls have it in 2016 territory though so IDK.

what do you mean?

[The Mikado]

You know, if the GOP ever wants to retake the House of Representatives, losing the nation's biggest state by more than a 2 to 1 margin isn't something it should want to just accept.

[Pericles]

If CA is swinging Dem so much, presumably the same demographic swings are occurring in other states. The Sun Belt swing states are all quite strongly correlated with California. If Biden is doing great with California's educated whites and Hispanics, then he should be doing well in states like Arizona and Texas too. Perhaps then, Biden might have a problem with Florida Hispanics rather than Hispanics overall. And Florida is close enough that Biden doesn't need Florida Hispanics as much as he needs Texas Hispanics, he can win Florida anyway with a swing to him among whites and seniors in particular.