Is this a different pollster that also had it as a Dem gain recently?
The one you're thinking of was Hendrix College and was Hill +2.
Oh so this is even better and makes it unlikely that one was just an outlier. That's a great sign! And what are comparable seats in other states that Dems could also gain?
Arkansas-2 is the Little Rock and area based district. So, a comparable seat would probably be other smaller cities and their metro areas. That might include:
1.Kentucky 6, Lexington Based
2.Michigan 3, Grand Rapids based
3.New York 24, Syracuse based
4.Texas 17?, Waco based
Texas 17th has a slice of Austin btw.
Anyway the AR GOP found a way to get rid of the commission ballot measure so this will just be promptly gerrymandered even if Ds somehow win it. I expect them to make 1 county split with Pulaski. .