It'll definitely be closer than this so I'm not worried too concerned right now.
First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.
Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.
Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R
if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean
If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.
Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.
This isnt close to a tossup lol
Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3
If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R
Final Margin is not the same as probability of winning
I don't think that's how it goes...
