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October 21, 2020, 02:15:53 AM
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  TX-Quinnipiac: Cornyn +8
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Author Topic: TX-Quinnipiac: Cornyn +8  (Read 471 times)
Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« on: September 24, 2020, 01:06:27 PM »

Cornyn 50%
Hegar 42%

https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=3675
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2020, 01:08:52 PM »

Despite all the polls , the fact that Cornyn outperforms Trump by 2-3 points in the polls means if that holds this Senate race is basically Safe for Cornyn even if he only pulls it out by less than a point
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2020, 01:10:29 PM »

Despite all the polls , the fact that Cornyn outperforms Trump by 2-3 points in the polls means if that holds this Senate race is basically Safe for Cornyn even if he only pulls it out by less than a point

It's still not a good sign that Cornyn is just matching Trump's share of the vote.
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2020, 01:15:45 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2020, 01:21:45 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.


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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2020, 01:29:33 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2020, 01:37:29 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2020, 01:40:58 PM »

Basically what's expected D leaning undecideds are coming home to Hegar also lol at the idea that a three term incumbent being at 50% in a state that Trump will definitely not win by 5, and has a 50/50 chance of losing being considered Safe.
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2020, 01:41:34 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2020, 01:43:40 PM »

Ready for a nuclear take? The actual result will be very similar to IA-SEN, with the two races being no more than 1-2 points apart.
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2020, 01:43:50 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is not the same as probability of winning
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2020, 01:47:06 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2020, 01:49:15 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol

Hegar will only win if Biden wins TX by at least 1.5 points, if its anything less than that yes then Cornyn very likely wins
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2020, 01:49:25 PM »

This is very similar to the Cruz - Beto poll from September 2018, except that one had fewer undecideds, it was 54% to 45%.

I believe most of the undecideds here are due to Hegar's lack of name recognition but this is definitely a good poll for Cornyn.
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2020, 01:51:28 PM »

Ready for a nuclear take? The actual result will be very similar to IA-SEN, with the two races being no more than 1-2 points apart.

I'm already preparing myself for the (frustrating) scenario where Biden wins Texas narrowly, but Cornyn skates by with a fraction of a percent of the vote despite Democrats insisting that the race was unwinnable/Cornyn massively outperforming Trump.
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2020, 01:58:55 PM »

Ready for a nuclear take? The actual result will be very similar to IA-SEN, with the two races being no more than 1-2 points apart.

I'm already preparing myself for the (frustrating) scenario where Biden wins Texas narrowly, but Cornyn skates by with a fraction of a percent of the vote despite Democrats insisting that the race was unwinnable/Cornyn massively outperforming Trump.

I feel you. I'm already preparing myself for the (frustrating) scenario where Biden wins Michigan somewhat comfortably but by a closer-than-expected margin and Peters barely ekes out a ~1-point-win in what turns out to be the tipping-point race despite Republicans insisting that the race was unwinnable/Peters massively outperforming Biden.
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2020, 03:12:28 PM »

This is very similar to the Cruz - Beto poll from September 2018, except that one had fewer undecideds, it was 54% to 45%.

I believe most of the undecideds here are due to Hegar's lack of name recognition but this is definitely a good poll for Cornyn.

Hegar being 1% better than O'Rourke at this time in 2018 is interesting.
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2020, 03:26:07 PM »

It'll definitely be closer than this so I'm not worried too concerned right now.

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is not the same as probability of winning

I don't think that's how it goes...
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2020, 03:36:23 PM »

lol at the people thinking Cornyn could win by an Abbott margin
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2020, 04:36:17 PM »

lol at the people thinking Cornyn could win by an Abbott margin

At least appreciate the strong incumbent memes. I don’t think we’ve ever had such a large pool of unbeatable titans in the Senate as this election cycle (Ernst, Senator Peters, Cornyn, Collins, Daines, Perdue, and I’m probably missing a few). It’s hilarious that they all ended up in competitive races, but I guess it just goes to show you that the opposite of whatever Atlas predicts will usually happen lol.
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 04:41:59 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol

That doesn't make any sense at all. Probability is only useful when you don't yet know the outcome of any of the races on the ballot. I think it's pretty reasonable to say that Hegar has an 80% chance of underperforming Biden and that Biden has a 30% chance of actually winning Texas. If that's true, this is the very definition of a Likely R race. You could make the assertion that if Biden wins Texas, Hegar has a 50-50 chance of also winning, but the first part of that assertion is far from guaranteed.
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2020, 04:42:28 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 06:01:58 PM by Monstro »

I like how the bar in Texas has lowered to where a 2018-esque Lean R result for Hegar translates to Solid R in just two years.

Just another indication of how much Texas has changed since then
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2020, 04:43:35 PM »

lol at the people thinking Cornyn could win by an Abbott margin

At least appreciate the strong incumbent memes. I don’t think we’ve ever had such a large pool of unbeatable titans in the Senate as this election cycle (Ernst, Senator Peters, Cornyn, Collins, Daines, Perdue, and I’m probably missing a few). It’s hilarious that they all ended up in competitive races, but I guess it just goes to show you that the opposite of whatever Atlas predicts will usually happen lol.

Don’t forget unbeatable™ indomitable ™, Strong candidate™ Roger Marshall. Who’s polling in the 40s in KS, but remember only Kobach would’ve made it competitive.
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2020, 04:52:29 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol

That doesn't make any sense at all. Probability is only useful when you don't yet know the outcome of any of the races on the ballot. I think it's pretty reasonable to say that Hegar has an 80% chance of underperforming Biden and that Biden has a 30% chance of actually winning Texas. If that's true, this is the very definition of a Likely R race. You could make the assertion that if Biden wins Texas, Hegar has a 50-50 chance of also winning, but the first part of that assertion is far from guaranteed.

The main reason I think it’s a tossup is because TX, on the Presidential level is a tossup with Biden and Trump exchanging leads in polling, and most polling being close within the margin of error. Overall I expect it to be one of the closest races on election night. Given that Ticket-Splitting will be limited, I think it’s pretty reasonable to say that the Senate race is a tossup as well. I firmly believe both the Presidential and Senate races will be within 1-2 points either way. I could see something along the lines of Biden+0.9 and Cornyn+1.1 happening. Although I assume you don’t believe TX-Pres is not a tossup, no?
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2020, 04:54:16 PM »

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.




Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol

That doesn't make any sense at all. Probability is only useful when you don't yet know the outcome of any of the races on the ballot. I think it's pretty reasonable to say that Hegar has an 80% chance of underperforming Biden and that Biden has a 30% chance of actually winning Texas. If that's true, this is the very definition of a Likely R race. You could make the assertion that if Biden wins Texas, Hegar has a 50-50 chance of also winning, but the first part of that assertion is far from guaranteed.

The main reason I think it’s a tossup is because TX, on the Presidential level is a tossup with Biden and Trump exchanging leads in polling, and most polling being close within the margin of error. Overall I expect it to be one of the closest races on election night. Given that Ticket-Splitting will be limited, I think it’s pretty reasonable to say that the Senate race is a tossup as well. I firmly believe both the Presidential and Senate races will be within 1-2 points either way. I could see something along the lines of Biden+0.9 and Cornyn+1.1 happening. Although I assume you don’t believe TX-Pres is not a tossup, no?

I think TX-pres is Lean R and TX-sen is Likely R.
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