Interesting, seems like Biden took a big lead at the height of the July-August COVID crisis in AZ and now we are more or less back where we started. Still think Trump needs a meaningful polling average lead to take AZ given what we know about polling in SW states.
It really feels like there is a correlation of Biden's lead increasing whenever there is a COVID surge in a state. We might be seeing this right now in Iowa and Wisconsin.
Exception to this is GA, where we are getting a bunch of tied polls now and had some meaningful Trump leads over the summer. Of course, Kemp's behavior during the surge stood out in a very bad way.
Also thinking Texas gets a bit better for Trump from here on out.
