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October 29, 2020, 11:29:54 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Data For Progress GA/KS/KY/MI: Perdue +2, Tie, McConnell +7, Peters +5, Warnock/Collins lead
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Author Topic: Data For Progress GA/KS/KY/MI: Perdue +2, Tie, McConnell +7, Peters +5, Warnock/Collins lead  (Read 545 times)
gracile
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« on: September 24, 2020, 10:40:55 AM »
« edited: September 24, 2020, 10:51:12 AM by gracile »

https://www.dataforprogress.org/2020-senate-project

Georgia:
Perdue (R-inc) 43%
Ossoff (D) 41%
Hazel (L) 2%

Kansas:
Bollier (D) 40%
Marshall (R) 40%
Buckley (L) 5%

Kentucky:
McConnell (R-inc) 46%
McGrath (D) 39%
Barron (L) 3%

Michigan:
Peters (D-inc) 47%
James (R) 42%

Georgia-Special:
Warnock (D) 26%
Collins (R) 22%
Loeffler (R-inc) 21%
Lieberman (D) 14%
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W
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2020, 10:42:16 AM »

I trust D4P and those Kansas #s are significant.
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2020, 10:43:27 AM »

Too many undecideds. The Kansas numbers could be promising but it's really unacceptable to be putting out a poll showing more than 10% undecided at this point.
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VARepublican
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2020, 10:43:56 AM »

with leaners

Perdue 44
Ossoff 44

Bollier 42
Marshall 42

McConnell 48
McGrath 41

GA-S
Warnock 26
Collins 22
Loeffler 21
Lieberman 14
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New York En Marche!
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2020, 10:46:53 AM »

Nice to have a poll with Warnock out in front. I don't think Dems will be locked out, but still good to see.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2020, 11:42:23 AM »

Friendly reminder that Laura Kelly outperformed her polls. The best poll she ever got was D+2, and she won by 5.

Just saying Smiley

Bollier +1 incoming?
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Elastic Iowan Going Nuclear on Joni
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2020, 11:49:42 AM »

I was told that KS voters wouldn’t even consider sending a Democrat to the Senate and that Bollier had no chance of replicating Kelly's path even in a massive Democratic wave, though.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2020, 12:19:43 PM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2020, 12:24:49 PM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2020, 12:42:08 PM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?

An outlier September poll had Kelly+4, but you're right that no poll had her winning by as much as she actually won by. Undecideds broke towards her pretty hard.

This race doesn't have a strong third-party presence, though; the final result won't be 48%-43%.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2020, 12:57:56 PM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?

An outlier September poll had Kelly+4, but you're right that no poll had her winning by as much as she actually won by. Undecideds broke towards her pretty hard.

This race doesn't have a strong third-party presence, though; the final result won't be 48%-43%.

Orman was overpolled. When he stopped campaigning in September, a lot of his voters went to Kelly.

If he had not been there at all, it could have been Kelly +8 or more.

Kansas is changing! No more Prairie Populism - now it's Prairie Pragmatism.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2020, 12:58:41 PM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?

An outlier September poll had Kelly+4, but you're right that no poll had her winning by as much as she actually won by. Undecideds broke towards her pretty hard.

This race doesn't have a strong third-party presence, though; the final result won't be 48%-43%.

Is it just Bollier/Marshall on the ballot?
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2020, 01:00:27 PM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?

An outlier September poll had Kelly+4, but you're right that no poll had her winning by as much as she actually won by. Undecideds broke towards her pretty hard.

This race doesn't have a strong third-party presence, though; the final result won't be 48%-43%.

Is it just Bollier/Marshall on the ballot?

Jason Buckley (L) is also on the ballot. Marshall doesn't push even his own party away like Kobach did, so he probably pulls more from Bollier. I guess that could be a benefit if he underperforms polls (5% is likely an overestimate - Kansas isn't a big third-party state, unless you're Greg Orman).
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2020, 02:46:24 PM »

Expecting Kansas to be close, though the amount of undecideds is concerning across the board. If Marshall is only underperforming Trump by 4 points, I think he'll be in good shape. Also, this was taken almost entirely before the passing of RBG.
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Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2020, 11:02:40 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 11:19:24 PM by Republicans for Biden »

I trust D4P and those Kansas #s are significant.

If KS flips so does MT. Trump is up by a very embarrassing close margin in both.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2020, 12:00:27 AM »

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

To be fair, in 2018 I doubt people thought Scott +0.1% and Cruz +3% would happen in the same universe.
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2020, 12:59:02 AM »

maybe we should all be funding these libertarians instead of the Dems at this point
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2020, 08:00:59 AM »

New Poll: Michigan Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2020, 08:02:18 AM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 41%, R: 43%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2020, 08:03:45 AM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 40%, R: 40%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2020, 08:04:42 AM »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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