NYT/Siena-GA/IA/TX: Tied, Biden +3, Trump +3

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder that NYT/Siena's poll of TX had Cruz +8 in 2018, and we know how that worked out, so it appears their poll also has some trouble especially with Hispanics.

However, we're at about 8-10% of undecided here so these results are almost kind of useless, but just goes to show GA and IA are virtual tossups, and if TX has another polling error underestimating Dems, Biden could very well win. Not to mention, TX is kind of weird, not sure I believe Trump's approval being +6 or Biden's favorability being +3.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, this would suggest Biden has upside in GA though - only 2% of whites are undecided but 13% of blacks are.

[wbrocks67]

According to the Texas poll, Trump is losing 18-29 yr olds 15%-60%...

I guess it's possible... Beto won them 71-29 in 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Looking at the numbers, in order of priority for Biden and the Democrats:

1) Pour it on in IA.   This poll and the DMR poll indicate a good shot to defeat Ernst and pick up the Senate seat.  Smaller media markets and on the ground campaigning makes it possible for Biden to win it.

2) For GA, two Senate seats are on the line.  Biden et al need to make appearances.  The advertising here so far has been strongly tilted to Trump but Biden has made significant buys for October.  Early voting starts in a couple of weeks.

3) For TX, it looks like it will come through for Biden in a 10 national PV lead.  See what the numbers are looking around October 15.

Harris is also clearly popular in GA too, would make sense to at least send her for a few appearances to gin up the base.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, Nate said that in the LV screen of most likely to vote, Biden/Trump are tied:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309073436082348034

[wbrocks67]

Trump claiming victory in Ohio and Iowa was dumb.

I think his campaign can't afford it