NYT/Siena-GA/IA/TX: Tied, Biden +3, Trump +3

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/uncrewed/status/1309056182129225729?s=21

[Alben Barkley]

Guess it is 2012 again after all.

[WD]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Horus]

A lot of undecideds. Decent batch for Biden all things considered though.

[Gass3268]

A lot of undecideds. Decent batch for Biden all things considered though.

Only seeing crosstabs for GA, but undecideds lean older, but also more African Americans are undecided. Explains the infusion of Biden money in Black media in Georgia.

[NOVA Green]

Thanks Gass...

For those of us living out on the West Coast running Swing / Hybrid Grave shift, we are still awake. despite Early Morning Hours "Out East"...

GA & IA numbers jive with recent numbers from both States.

TX numbers might appear slightly Trump Heavy...

All could be and are likely statistical noise, but coming from a relatively solid polling outfit, best just throw in the "hopper" (Mix) and let others trip out on the polling samples and all that...

Fact that GA & IA are tossups, plus TX is within an MOE should be nothing to sneeze at for those backing Team Biden in 2020....

[Horus]

Thought I was misreading the Texas crosstabs but Biden is up 60-15 among under 30s. Meanwhile iowa is only 50-41. I know, I know, small sample sizes but still

[VAR]

Looks like Politician was right after all  

GA
Trump approval: 49/47 (+2)
Favorabilities:
Trump 48/50 (-2)
Biden 47/50 (-3)
Ossoff 39/34 (+5)
Perdue 47/34 (+13)
Harris 46/40 (+6)
Pence 51/41 (+10)
BLM 52/43 (+9)

IA
Trump approval: 48/48 (=)
Favorabilities:
Trump 47/51 (-4)
Biden 47/48 (-1)
Greenfield 45/38 (+7)
Ernst 45/45 (=)
Harris 44/42 (+2)
Pence 44/45 (-1)
BLM 49/42 (+7)

TX
Trump approval: 51/45 (+6)
Favorabilities:
Trump 50/48 (+2)
Biden 50/47 (+3)
Hegar 33/15 (+18)
Cornyn 45/28 (+17)
Harris 42/46 (-4)
Pence 48/42 (+6)
BLM 49/44 (+5)

Hispanics: Biden 57-32

[Pericles]

Weird that Iowa is swinging so much relative to the other two, good for the Senate race I guess. Another good sign for the Senate is that Cornyn is only outrunning Trump by 2 points.

[neostassenite31]

Weird that Iowa is swinging so much relative to the other two, good for the Senate race I guess. Another good sign for the Senate is that Cornyn is only outrunning Trump by 2 points.

Biden's strength in Iowa in these polls would be consistent with an at least partial snapback of Midwestern white non-college voters to 2012, as other polls in WI and MN seem to corroborate

[Rand]

C O R N   H U S K I N ‘   J O E

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 16-21

GA
523 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Biden 45%
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 0%
Would not vote 0%
Don't know/refused 8%

IA
501 likely voters
MoE: 4.99%

Biden 45%
Trump 42%
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 1%
Hawkins 0%
Would not vote 0%
Don't know/refused 10%

TX
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Trump 46%
Biden 43%
Hawkins 1%
Jorgensen 1%
Someone else 0%
Would not vote 0%
Don't know/refused 9%

[VAR]

Georgia:
Dekalb/Fulton: Biden 69-21 (+48)
Inner ATL suburbs: Biden 56-33 (+23)
North: Trump 63-29 (+34)
Outer ATL suburbs: Trump 57-33 (+24)
South: Trump 48-40 (+8)

Iowa:
Des Moines metro: Biden 48-39 (+9)
East: Trump 45-44 (+1)
Eastern Cities: Biden 51-36 (+15)
West: Trump 47-41 (+6)

Texas:
Austin/San Antonio/South: Biden 50-38 (+12)
Dallas-Fort Worth: Biden 47-34 (+13)
Houston: Biden 51-36 (+15)
Minor: Trump 58-34 (+24)
Rural: Trump 71-25 (+46)

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder that NYT/Siena's poll of TX had Cruz +8 in 2018, and we know how that worked out, so it appears their poll also has some trouble especially with Hispanics.

However, we're at about 8-10% of undecided here so these results are almost kind of useless, but just goes to show GA and IA are virtual tossups, and if TX has another polling error underestimating Dems, Biden could very well win. Not to mention, TX is kind of weird, not sure I believe Trump's approval being +6 or Biden's favorability being +3.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Texas:
Austin/San Antonio/South: Biden 50-38 (+12)
Dallas-Fort Worth: Biden 47-34 (+13)
Houston: Biden 51-36 (+15)
Minor: Trump 58-34 (+24)
Rural: Trump 71-25 (+46)

So the only reason Trump leads in Texas is because there are many more undecideds in the big Metros.

[Pericles]

Texas:
Austin/San Antonio/South: Biden 50-38 (+12)
Dallas-Fort Worth: Biden 47-34 (+13)
Houston: Biden 51-36 (+15)
Minor: Trump 58-34 (+24)
Rural: Trump 71-25 (+46)

So the only reason Trump leads in Texas is because there are many more undecideds in the big Metros.

Did Clinton win those metros by a lot in 2016? If they were close, it could be alienated suburban Republicans that will eventually 'come home' to Trump, though it seems unlikely.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, this would suggest Biden has upside in GA though - only 2% of whites are undecided but 13% of blacks are.

[Beet]

According to the Texas poll, Trump is losing 18-29 yr olds 15%-60%...

[wbrocks67]

According to the Texas poll, Trump is losing 18-29 yr olds 15%-60%...

I guess it's possible... Beto won them 71-29 in 2018.

[Podgy the Bear]

Looking at the numbers, in order of priority for Biden and the Democrats:

1) Pour it on in IA.   This poll and the DMR poll indicate a good shot to defeat Ernst and pick up the Senate seat.  Smaller media markets and on the ground campaigning makes it possible for Biden to win it.

2) For GA, two Senate seats are on the line.  Biden et al need to make appearances.  The advertising here so far has been strongly tilted to Trump but Biden has made significant buys for October.  Early voting starts in a couple of weeks.

3) For TX, it looks like it will come through for Biden in a 10 point national PV lead.  See what the numbers are looking around October 15.

[wbrocks67]

Looking at the numbers, in order of priority for Biden and the Democrats:

1) Pour it on in IA.   This poll and the DMR poll indicate a good shot to defeat Ernst and pick up the Senate seat.  Smaller media markets and on the ground campaigning makes it possible for Biden to win it.

2) For GA, two Senate seats are on the line.  Biden et al need to make appearances.  The advertising here so far has been strongly tilted to Trump but Biden has made significant buys for October.  Early voting starts in a couple of weeks.

3) For TX, it looks like it will come through for Biden in a 10 national PV lead.  See what the numbers are looking around October 15.

Harris is also clearly popular in GA too, would make sense to at least send her for a few appearances to gin up the base.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is going blue, regardless if Rs like it or not, Ernst is done

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Just a reminder that NYT/Siena's poll of TX had Cruz +8 in 2018, and we know how that worked out, so it appears their poll also has some trouble especially with Hispanics.

However, we're at about 8-10% of undecided here so these results are almost kind of useless, but just goes to show GA and IA are virtual tossups, and if TX has another polling error underestimating Dems, Biden could very well win. Not to mention, TX is kind of weird, not sure I believe Trump's approval being +6 or Biden's favorability being +3.

Texas isn't ready yet though. Trump is somehow gonna do better than Cruz '18

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

According to the Texas poll, Trump is losing 18-29 yr olds 15%-60%...

Numbers might be a little wonky, but that makes sense overall just based on my non-scientific, completely anecdotal experiences in Texas. 

You have two types of young people: those that don't like Trump or those that don't really care who's President. 

And then you have a much much smaller group of vocal young people that absolutely love the Donald. 

[tagimaucia]

The profile of undecideds in these recent Georgia polls don't look great for Trump.

Haven't gotten a chance to look more closely at Monmouth yet, but in the AJC poll, the undecideds were majority black, majority self-described moderate, and majority poor.

In this one, they are about half black (and nearly all non-white), majority independent, and majority in the ATL metro.

I think the Trump campaign needs to hope that most of these end up being non-voters and that its more of a "normal" turnout presidential year than a really high one.