Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +1 in AZ, tied in FL

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... some serious reversion toward 2012 happening in the recent state polls.

[Skill and Chance]

More bad state polls. Terrible day for state polls.

Well, national polls tend to lead state polls, so all things considered you would rather be the candidate improving nationally.  These state polls were taken during the period of Biden's lowest national leads so far and mostly prior to the SCOTUS situation.

[Skill and Chance]

Basically, FL/AZ are becoming more competitive than they were during the summer.  Not a huge surprise but still noteworthy.  

Decline of local COVID outbreaks?

Still think Biden wins AZ given Dem polling issues in the SW, but I think Trump takes Florida at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

Really weird how State and National polls have completely diverged today.

The national polls are generally newer.  They had Biden losing some ground last week and gaining it back this week.  I am less concerned Biden is blowing it than this morning.  

[Skill and Chance]

This defeats the "outlier" narrative on that ABC/WaPo poll

That poll had Trump +4 in Florida and you moved it from Tilt to Lean R as a result. This poll has a tie.

Yeah, ABC/WaPo is still an outlier in Florida, but this poll has positive Trump approval in Florida which is a fairly big deal.  Biden had a lead in line with his national lead in Florida for most of the summer, so there has been real movement.