Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +1 in AZ, tied in FL

[VAR]

AZ (Sep 11-17, 565 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 47%
Trump 46%

FL (Sep 11-16, 586 LV)
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... some serious reversion toward 2012 happening in the recent state polls.

[bilaps]

I would love to know where things stand right now in AZ. It's all over the place.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

[BlueSwan]

More bad state polls. Terrible day for state polls.

[Bootes Void]

I would love to know where things stand right now in AZ. It's all over the place.

Biden a a favourite in Arizona, Florida is tossup

[Alben Barkley]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

[Skill and Chance]

More bad state polls. Terrible day for state polls.

Well, national polls tend to lead state polls, so all things considered you would rather be the candidate improving nationally.  These state polls were taken during the period of Biden's lowest national leads so far and mostly prior to the SCOTUS situation.

[RFayette]

Basically, FL/AZ are becoming more competitive than they were during the summer.  Not a huge surprise but still noteworthy.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

JFR, Kelly was +9 in this same poll.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

[Alben Barkley]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

How so? All Trump has done is use the same playbook he would have against Bernie — call Biden a “socialist.” If Florida Latinos are buying that about Biden, lord knows how much worse it would have been for Bernie. Biden is at least keeping Florida competitive, largely because of his appeal to seniors. The state, mind you, voted R in two statewide races even in a “blue wave” year two years ago where the national environment was about D +8 so...

[Dr. Arch]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

Florida is always close, period.

See 2018

[Skill and Chance]

Basically, FL/AZ are becoming more competitive than they were during the summer.  Not a huge surprise but still noteworthy.  

Decline of local COVID outbreaks?

Still think Biden wins AZ given Dem polling issues in the SW, but I think Trump takes Florida at this point.

[woodley park]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

How is it any worse than Trump? Trump continues to downplay the threat of COVID, repeatedly insults Puerto Rico, and has separated Latin American children from their parents in a measure so draconian it will be right up there with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II as a modern day egregious violation of human rights.

[Woody]

This defeats the "outlier" narrative on that ABC/WaPo poll

[Nyvin]

Really weird how State and National polls have completely diverged today.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How is it any worse than Trump? Trump continues to downplay the threat of COVID, repeatedly insults Puerto Rico, and has separated Latin American children from their parents in a measure so draconian it will be right up there with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II as a modern day egregious violation of human rights.

Right, Trump's treatment of Latinos has been historically abominable.  The fact that even 10% of the are voting for him suggests that Biden is also doing something wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

Really weird how State and National polls have completely diverged today.

The national polls are generally newer.  They had Biden losing some ground last week and gaining it back this week.  I am less concerned Biden is blowing it than this morning.  

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Really weird how State and National polls have completely diverged today.

Yeah, it's weird.

[woodley park]

How is it any worse than Trump? Trump continues to downplay the threat of COVID, repeatedly insults Puerto Rico, and has separated Latin American children from their parents in a measure so draconian it will be right up there with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II as a modern day egregious violation of human rights.

Right, Trump's treatment of Latinos has been historically abominable.  The fact that even 10% of the are voting for him suggests that Biden is also doing something wrong.

I chalk it up to 'muh both sides'.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Florida is always close, period.

See 2018

Florida was only close in 2018 because Nelson also couldn't get out of bed to appeal to Latinos in the state.  If he has made the slightest effort here, Dem chances of retaking the Senate would be an order of magnitude better.

Biden looks like he is repeating the same mistake.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How is it any worse than Trump? Trump continues to downplay the threat of COVID, repeatedly insults Puerto Rico, and has separated Latin American children from their parents in a measure so draconian it will be right up there with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II as a modern day egregious violation of human rights.

Right, Trump's treatment of Latinos has been historically abominable.  The fact that even 10% of the are voting for him suggests that Biden is also doing something wrong.

I chalk it up to 'muh both sides'.

I'm not arguing that Latinos should vote for Trump.  No one should vote for Trump!
But it's apparent that despite everything Trump has done, a lot of Latinos still are voting for Trump.

And we shouldn't ignore what the polls are telling is just because we don't want it to be true.  We (i.e. the Democrats) should be doing something about it.

[wbrocks67]

Reuters/Ipsos had Heller winning Nevada by 6 in 2018. They clearly aren't great at polling Latinos.

[wbrocks67]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

For every ABC + Ipsos poll, there is a NYT/Siena and Change and OHPI that everyone continues to ignore.