Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +1 in AZ, tied in FL

[Alben Barkley]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

[Alben Barkley]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

How so? All Trump has done is use the same playbook he would have against Bernie — call Biden a “socialist.” If Florida Latinos are buying that about Biden, lord knows how much worse it would have been for Bernie. Biden is at least keeping Florida competitive, largely because of his appeal to seniors. The state, mind you, voted R in two statewide races even in a “blue wave” year two years ago where the national environment was about D +8 so...