Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +1 in AZ, tied in FL

[wbrocks67]

Reuters/Ipsos had Heller winning Nevada by 6 in 2018. They clearly aren't great at polling Latinos.

[wbrocks67]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

For every ABC + Ipsos poll, there is a NYT/Siena and Change and OHPI that everyone continues to ignore.

[wbrocks67]

I'm tired of all this hand-wringing. If Biden wins by 7 nationally then he will carry both Arizona and Florida.

Also, I'm old enough to remember that some polls had McCain ahead or tied in Virginia, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio, even well into October.

Like I said, Ipsos had Heller winning by 6 in late October 2018:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412963-poll-heller-holds-six-point-lead-in-nevada

[wbrocks67]

Full releases: AZ | FL

AZ

GCB: R 45-44
Trump approval: 43/52 (-9)

Favorabilities:
Trump 47/53 (-6)
Biden 54/46 (+8)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 48/52 (-4)

FL

GCB: R 47-46
Trump approval: 48/47 (+1)

Favorabilities:
Trump 51/49 (+2)
Biden 56/44 (+12)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 57/43 (+14)

These numbers make absolutely no sense on both ends so junk it. Biden and Pence with double digit favorabilities in FL?

[wbrocks67]

This defeats the "outlier" narrative on that ABC/WaPo poll

That poll had Trump +4 in Florida and you moved it from Tilt to Lean R as a result. This poll has a tie.

Yeah, ABC/WaPo is still an outlier in Florida, but this poll has positive Trump approval in Florida which is a fairly big deal.  Biden had a lead in line with his national lead in Florida for most of the summer, so there has been real movement.

Or the polling was off. There was no way Biden was winning FL by any more than like 3, even with a double digital national lead.

[wbrocks67]

Like I said, Ipsos had Heller winning by 6 in late October 2018:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412963-poll-heller-holds-six-point-lead-in-nevada

How is a cherrypicked poll by this pollster from two years ago in a different state relevant in the slightest? Your posts on this subforum are quite frankly embarrassing. Hackiest poster here by far.

AZ is a latino heavy state, and NV is right next door similarly. So they clearly screwed up polling in NV, so what would make AZ any different? And if they're screwing up polling latinos, then it begs the question if the FL poll is reliable. You don't have to be such a jerk.