Biden “lid” days = concerning?

[Horus]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins. 

How do we quantify whether someone is running a good campaign or not?

If we're going by polling and expected election outcomes, then Biden is running one of the best presidential campaigns in recent history.

If we're going by almost any other metric, then it's pretty subjective.

That's a fair point.

But it's not really unprecedented for a candidate to run a substandard campaign, and still win convinceably due to bad state of affairs/the opponent being so unpopular and autodestructive. But if the situation was "normal" (no COVID and thus the political fallout), Biden's inadequacies as a candidate would pose a problem.

The way things stand now, I don't see Biden losing, but I'm still convinced it'll be closer than the polling shows, as I believe Trump's support is still understated. Right now the margin is too big for this to decide the outcome, but in a different climate, it would've been very concerning.

In the end, whether you think his campaign by itself is effective or not so much, it's pretty much indisputable how all the things are playing out in his favor, and I'm talking about the factors out of his control.

Biden had been leading Trump by a substantial margin in head-to-head polling before the pandemic.

I think a lot of people conflate "he's not running his campaign in a way that directly appeals to me" with "he's not running a good campaign".

I've heard many people say that Biden isn't running a good campaign, but I haven't heard anybody articulate what exactly he is doing that's so bad.

There's no evidence that his gaffes are having an influence outside extremely online or reactionary circles, and he's had record fundraising.

So I'm not really sure what more he could be doing.

Once he became the presumptive nominee, Biden is getting unusually favorable treatment from most of the mainstream media this season (which I don't really take an issue with, given what's at stake in this election).

Fundraising is not neccesairly the best measure of enthusiasm or lack of thereof.

Also, while Biden was leading substantially even before the pandemic, it's pretty obvious that using still hypotetical matchups from a year before an actual election, given how fluid politics are, is pretty funny. The narrative that Democrats had it in the bag anyway before the tragedy of COVID occured is very nice to entertain, but flawed. I hoped we'd learn a little critical thinking from 2016. The fact Trump destroyed himself doesn't mean the factors that helped him rise back then were just a fluke, nor that Democrats still have a lot of rethinking to do.

It's not even that the msm is giving Biden favorable coverage (Most networks would rather have Trump in office for the ratings) it's that the president is constantly doing something to hog the camera keeping the focus off of Biden's issues which are certainly there, though of course less immediately problematic.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

This is incredibly disingenuous, but it's not surprising. People really couldn't admit Biden was actually just *good* at this when he won the primary, and even after everything and nearly every decision made *correctly*, people are still saying "oh he's just getting lucky bc Trump is so bad." I actually feel bad for Joe, that everyone sells him so short. There is no guarantee any other nominee would be doing as well as he is right now - actually, they likely wouldn't be.

Biden has been criticized for his "basement" and "low key" campaign, and yet, HE is the one whose favorable have actually gone UP as the election has gone on. That just doesn't happen. Ever. If people here actually went out into the real world and spoke to real people, most people would probably agree that Joe keeping the lowest key campaign (DURING A PANDEMIC) is a good thing.

Oh, and if you're just gonna say all he's saying is "I'm not Trump" then you're clearly not paying attention. Some of these takes are so lazy.

Of course most people would agree that running a low key campaign (mostly refraining from holding many campaign events in person, and if they're held, keeping them to minimum, so the safety standards are observed) during a pandemic is a responsible and good thing to do. My whole point is that Biden does also give many a perception he's not putting enough efforts, even in "socially distancing campaigning". I never bought into Republican bulls**t talking points about "Biden hiding in his basement" or "Democrats not wanting Biden to face real people because he's declining", but there's some perception problem. Clearly it's not enough to save Trump at this stage, but I'm concerned about Biden coming into office with this hanging over him. And I still think he hasn't been doing enough in "virtual" setting.

Biden is still facing an enthusiasm gap (shown with the GOP actually winning the registration game in key states during last weeks), which fortunately at this stage (barring something massive actually turning everything upside down) is unlikely to put Trump over the top, but under "normal" circumstances, I'd be really worried.

But again, you're using the numbers to push whatever narrative you personally want. There IS no enthusiasm gap, as seen as in the early vote #s. We've gone thru this a million times. And you're also misconstruing the reg numbers too, which have a lot more context to them than what you're presenting.

Dude, no need to get angry.

GOP's getting an edge in the registration game is not something I'm making up out of thin air, it's been reported multiple times in the recent days, and, again, I said I don't think it would result in any of said states swinging, given Biden's margins there.

Early vote is something that's been favoring Democrats in most of the recent elections, even lost ones (2004).

I don't want to get personal, unlike you, but I can't help to be under the impression that some here are being a bit blinded with what is arguably a very favorable, long-term run. Frankly one of the reasons I was reluctant to return to this forum is that apparently being even slightly critical of Biden now reacts in knee-jerk reactions from some people.

I wasn't getting personal? But you are doing exactly what you are claiming others are doing. You're taking data and spinning it into your own narrative.

The registration stuff is as simple as this - we have no idea how many of these are new registrants or ancestral Ds (who have voted R) just actually becoming Rs and all the such. Because I can show you the analysis that showed *new registrants* data where Ds have an advantage.

I'm not trying to "spin" anything, my friend. I could be overcautious, but I think we simply ought to keep some critical perspective.

You may have a point regarding the registration issue, but there were also numerous polls, even in the recent month, showing Trump's advantage in terms of "enthusiasm" for a candidate. I don't adhere to the "primary model" that treats it as a decisive indicator, given the scale of Trump's negative electorate, but I still think Biden personally doesn't generate much enthusiasm and his main strength is Democratic demographic advantage and the fact Trump is just doing such an appalling job, while Trump's biggest strength was always the ability to motivate and energize his supporters "for" him.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

This is incredibly disingenuous, but it's not surprising. People really couldn't admit Biden was actually just *good* at this when he won the primary, and even after everything and nearly every decision made *correctly*, people are still saying "oh he's just getting lucky bc Trump is so bad." I actually feel bad for Joe, that everyone sells him so short. There is no guarantee any other nominee would be doing as well as he is right now - actually, they likely wouldn't be.

Biden has been criticized for his "basement" and "low key" campaign, and yet, HE is the one whose favorable have actually gone UP as the election has gone on. That just doesn't happen. Ever. If people here actually went out into the real world and spoke to real people, most people would probably agree that Joe keeping the lowest key campaign (DURING A PANDEMIC) is a good thing.

Oh, and if you're just gonna say all he's saying is "I'm not Trump" then you're clearly not paying attention. Some of these takes are so lazy.

Of course most people would agree that running a low key campaign (mostly refraining from holding many campaign events in person, and if they're held, keeping them to minimum, so the safety standards are observed) during a pandemic is a responsible and good thing to do. My whole point is that Biden does also give many a perception he's not putting enough efforts, even in "socially distancing campaigning". I never bought into Republican bulls**t talking points about "Biden hiding in his basement" or "Democrats not wanting Biden to face real people because he's declining", but there's some perception problem. Clearly it's not enough to save Trump at this stage, but I'm concerned about Biden coming into office with this hanging over him. And I still think he hasn't been doing enough in "virtual" setting.

Biden is still facing an enthusiasm gap (shown with the GOP actually winning the registration game in key states during last weeks), which fortunately at this stage (barring something massive actually turning everything upside down) is unlikely to put Trump over the top, but under "normal" circumstances, I'd be really worried.

But again, you're using the numbers to push whatever narrative you personally want. There IS no enthusiasm gap, as seen as in the early vote #s. We've gone thru this a million times. And you're also misconstruing the reg numbers too, which have a lot more context to them than what you're presenting.

Dude, no need to get angry.

GOP's getting an edge in the registration game is not something I'm making up out of thin air, it's been reported multiple times in the recent days, and, again, I said I don't think it would result in any of said states swinging, given Biden's margins there.

Early vote is something that's been favoring Democrats in most of the recent elections, even lost ones (2004).

I don't want to get personal, unlike you, but I can't help to be under the impression that some here are being a bit blinded with what is arguably a very favorable, long-term run. Frankly one of the reasons I was reluctant to return to this forum is that apparently being even slightly critical of Biden now reacts in knee-jerk reactions from some people.

I wasn't getting personal? But you are doing exactly what you are claiming others are doing. You're taking data and spinning it into your own narrative.

The registration stuff is as simple as this - we have no idea how many of these are new registrants or ancestral Ds (who have voted R) just actually becoming Rs and all the such. Because I can show you the analysis that showed *new registrants* data where Ds have an advantage.

I'm not trying to "spin" anything, my friend. I could be overcautious, but I think we simply ought to keep some critical perspective.

You may have a point regarding the registration issue, but there were also numerous polls, even in the recent month, showing Trump's advantage in terms of "enthusiasm" for a candidate. I don't adhere to the "primary model" that treats it as a decisive indicator, given the scale of Trump's negative electorate, but I still think Biden personally doesn't generate much enthusiasm and his main strength is Democratic demographic advantage and the fact Trump is just doing such an appalling job, while Trump's biggest strength was always the ability to motivate and energize his supporters "for" him.

And as we've talked about a million times, there is going to be a major gap between asking "are you enthusiastic FOR joe biden" or "are you enthusiastic to vote and/or vote out Donald Trump" in general.