IA - Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register: TIE

[indietraveler]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time. Not sure how many times some of us in the midwest have to repeat how uniquely toxic HRC is here and how that fact alone had an impact on results in 2016.

Ernst should be worried. With Greenfield pulling 10% of Trump supporters it's no longer unlikely that he carries Iowa and she loses.

[wbrocks67]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time. Not sure how many times some of us in the midwest have to repeat how uniquely toxic HRC is here and how that fact alone had an impact on results in 2016.

Ernst should be worried. With Greenfield pulling 10% of Trump supporters it's no longer unlikely that he carries Iowa and she loses.

As someone from IA, what are you seeing on the ground there? Do these results make sense?

[ProudModerate2]

Wow.
And didn't trump just recently stop advertising in Iowa?
He must have thought it was close-to-safe for him, but maybe not.

[DINGO Joe]

Wow.
And didn't trump just recently stop advertising in Iowa?
He must have thought it was close-to-safe for him, but maybe not.

He's broke.  The campaign has to hope he can squeak by without it because he has to spend his scarce resources elsewhere.

[pbrower2a]

The reason Iowa will be more elastic than a bunch of other states this fall is that... its extremely white.  Whites have swung to the left post-2016 much more significantly than non-whites.

Iowa also has no giant cities. Its largest city, Des Moines, is about the same size as Grand Rapids, Michigan. Iowa is starting to have a fast-growing Hispanic population, perhaps attracted by a good record for K-12 schooling. (Mexican-Americans are even more insistent upon quality education for their kids than are some white populations).

The state is more homogeneous than most others.

What is most important? If Iowa is in a tie, then Wisconsin, which is slightly more D than Iowa in most years, is a Biden win.  Iowa has been slow to drift D from 2016, but it may be reverting to its pattern of 2008 and 2012. This was an excellent state for Obama, and Biden has the best connection to Obama that anyone has.  It can "come home" to Democrats this year. The Senate race matters more.

Of the states that Trump won by 10% or less, Iowa has the fewest electoral votes... by four. Iowa is still big enough that with all Trump losses of 2016 (TL16)

TL16 + MI + PA + IA = 274.

Iowa is large enough to put Biden over the top even if he should lose New Hampshire.

[pbrower2a]

Wow.
And didn't trump just recently stop advertising in Iowa?
He must have thought it was close-to-safe for him, but maybe not.

He's broke.  The campaign has to hope he can squeak by without it because he has to spend his scarce resources elsewhere.

His campaign is broke, but even worse, Trump is morally bankrupt. In view of the Iowa Republican party going along with Trump on COVID-19 and the state getting ravaged as a result, the Iowa Republican Party is also morally bankrupt.

The Democrats can hammer Trump  on COVID-19 and (with Senator Ernst) putting Iowa agriculture at risk a couple years ago with a trade war. Iowa is the definitive agribusiness state.   

[Skye]

Oh s**t.
Keep in mind this is coming from the Gold Standard of Iowa polling.

If at all true, Trump should give up.

Spoiler...is not true.

It's over, Sergei. And it's none of your business anyway since you admitted that you don't even live in this country.

Please let's try not to tell people from other countries that it's "none of your business" when they post an opinion you don't agree with.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow.
And didn't trump just recently stop advertising in Iowa?
He must have thought it was close-to-safe for him, but maybe not.

He stopped advertising because he is hoarding what little cash is left for the states that will decide his reelection (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania). If he loses Iowa that means he has lost all swing states and then some.

[pbrower2a]

Wow.
And didn't trump just recently stop advertising in Iowa?
He must have thought it was close-to-safe for him, but maybe not.

He stopped advertising because he is hoarding what little cash is left for the states that will decide his reelection (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania). If he loses Iowa that means he has lost all swing states and then some.

The difference between 290 and 375 electoral votes for the eventual winner may not be a huge difference in the popular vote. Collapses happen in elections, although we will have to wait to see whether such applies this time.   

[DrScholl]

Oh s**t.
Keep in mind this is coming from the Gold Standard of Iowa polling.

If at all true, Trump should give up.

Spoiler...is not true.

It's over, Sergei. And it's none of your business anyway since you admitted that you don't even live in this country.

Please let's try not to tell people from other countries that it's "none of your business" when they post an opinion you don't agree with.

I responded that way because that poster is an obvious troll.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ernst is toast then, if IA is competetive, justlike Reynolds could be in trouble in 2022 against Scholten. OH, IA and collectively have picked the Prez since 1992

The 334 friewall is back.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If Iowa is even closed to tied, it means MN, NE-02, and WI are gone for Trump.

MN & WI are so 3 weeks ago. OH is tied with these numbers

[indietraveler]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time. Not sure how many times some of us in the midwest have to repeat how uniquely toxic HRC is here and how that fact alone had an impact on results in 2016.

Ernst should be worried. With Greenfield pulling 10% of Trump supporters it's no longer unlikely that he carries Iowa and she loses.

As someone from IA, what are you seeing on the ground there? Do these results make sense?

I think it's going to be close so the results seem fitting. I'm not sure if I have any unique takes that others wouldn't have in their home area. A few observations:

-Compared to 2016 people have dug into whatever side they're on and are more vocal about it. Here in 2016 you didn't see a lot of yard signs (for Trump or Clinton). It seemed like a lot of their own supporters were embarrassed by them. Now I see tons of Trump and Biden signs.

-The urban/rural divide exists here even though IA doesn't have any large urban areas. This does create a somewhat "shy" effect of rural Biden voters and urban Trump voters.

-A lot of 2016 3rd party/no show vote that naturally would have been democrat in 2016 seems to be coming home for Biden now. This has been reflected in polling too. Lets not forget that the Clinton/Sanders divide was amplified here at a state level that was somewhat unique to the national narrative. Everyone talks about the 2020 caucus disaster but 2016 wasn't great either. It was a close race here and I think the outcome and seeing some of the failures of the caucus process then left a bad taste in some democrats' mouths. It really fit with the narrative of Clinton "being part of the system."

-I see a lot of people getting involved or vocal when they are usually more private about politics. I don't think that's unique to here, but it is interesting to see.

[NOVA Green]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time. Not sure how many times some of us in the midwest have to repeat how uniquely toxic HRC is here and how that fact alone had an impact on results in 2016.

Ernst should be worried. With Greenfield pulling 10% of Trump supporters it's no longer unlikely that he carries Iowa and she loses.

This poll does not surprise me particularly, as someone who has lived in the Midwest (Ohio) and spent time throughout the region over the decades.

Trump only captured 51.2% of the vote in '16, which although higher than Romney / McCain numbers (46/44%), against a Midwest Democrat Obama, wasn't really much higher than Bush Jr '04 / '00 (49.9% / 48.2% respectively).

Hell, I remember watching the '88 GE Election at the local small County DEM HQ and cheering when Iowa was called almost right away for Dukakis...

Sure it does not appear that Biden is performing quite as well as Obama in parts of the Midwest in 2012 (Based upon current polling), but overall appears to be close to matching...

It might not be quite enough to flip OH & IA, but definitely worthy of a Biden investment, plus media markets "bleed-over" in this part of the Country....

[MT Treasurer]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time.

I never liked the IA-MO analogy (albeit for different reasons), but relative to the "nation as a whole", IA is about as (if not more) Republican this year as MO was in 2008. In any case, I maintain that IA isn’t as competitive as FL/GA/AZ, and if Trump loses it, Biden's EV total will be at around 400.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time.

I never liked the IA-MO analogy (albeit for different reasons), but relative to the "nation as a whole", IA is about as (if not more) Republican this year as MO was in 2008. In any case, I maintain that IA isn’t as competitive as FL/GA/AZ, and if Trump loses it, Biden's EV total will be at around 400.


LOL Dukakis, Bill Clinton, AL Gore and Obama won IA and Chet Culver and Tom Harkin were elected Dems before Kim Reynolds and Joni Ernst were elected in 2014.

Dems are competetive due to the fact Dems have 3/4 seats at the Congressional level and are winning all by 2 and 4