IA - Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register: TIE

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/22/iowa-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-tied-iowa-presidential-race-2020/5839311002/

September 14-17
658 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%
Changes with June 7-10 poll

Biden 47% (+4)
Trump 47% (+3)
Someone else 4% (-5)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

Wouldn't vote previously at 1%

[wbrocks67]

Very interesting. Polls this morning make Biden's team spending in IA + GA starting this week look very smart.

[Podgy the Bear]

Again, another state where Biden needs to pour his additional financial resources to tilt IA in his favor and to get Theresa Greenfield across.

The polls coming out today indicate and underscore Trump's serious weakness and bleeding from his 2016 support.

[Stuart98]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

[Skye]

Don't you love it when you're tied in a state you won by nine points in the previous election?

[wbrocks67]

Much like the GA poll today where Biden wins indies by 13%, Biden is also up among Indies by 12% here, 50-38%.

[Tender Branson]

Good, considering how terrible Biden did there in the caucus ...

Pete Buttigieg would be leading Trump by 15 points there right now.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

only 3% undecided left

[Woody]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html

[wbrocks67]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html

What's your point? Selzer was pretty damn close in 2016, just 2% off.

[tagimaucia]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html

I mean, the Selzer poll was off by 2 in 2016.  If Trump wins Iowa by two points, he's not going to win the electoral college.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is toast then, if IA is competetive, justlike Reynolds could be in trouble in 2022 against Scholten. OH, IA and collectively have picked the Prez since 1992

[Brittain33]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html

Looks like their next-to-last poll was 38-38 over a month before the Election. That captures the high undecideds who ultimately lined up behind Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

Good, considering how terrible Biden did there in the caucus ...

Pete Buttigieg would be leading Trump by 15 points there right now.

Primaries are different from general elections. Biden got 8% in the NH primary, but few people here think Trump can win New Hampshire in the general election.

More to the point, this is not a good poll for Trump, or Ernst, since she's been running 2-3 points behind Trump in most public polling.

[tagimaucia]

Under the hood, this poll is better for Trump than the June DMR one though, even though the topline margin is pretty much the same.  Better favorables for Trump and worse ones for Biden.  

Maybe a bit of a double-edged sword though, because it also seems that nearly all the decided voters who are unfavorable on both Trump and Biden must be breaking for Biden.  Based on this poll, Iowa voters are still viewing the election as much more of a referendum on Trump than a equally weighted choice between two candidates.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, was expecting a Trump lead here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

But I thought Trump triaged Iowa because it was Titanium R.

[Buzz]

I will make sure to bump this on 11/4. 

[tagimaucia]

I will make sure to bump this on 11/4. 

Buzz, do you not think Iowa will even be close?  I don't think anyone is disputing that Republicans have overperformed the polls there recently and if I had to bet even money on the state, I would put it on Trump.  Just curious what your angle is here.  Do you think he's going to win it by high single digits again or something?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Thank God, my state government's been making me lose faith in this state, glad to see some semblance of sanity left.

[Buzz]

I will make sure to bump this on 11/4. 

Buzz, do you not think Iowa will even be close?  I don't think anyone is disputing that Republicans have overperformed the polls there recently and if I had to bet even money on the state, I would put it on Trump.  Just curious what your angle is here.  Do you think he's going to win it by high single digits again or something?

I think he will win the state by 5-7 points.

[Sbane]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html

Lol yeah they pretty much nailed 2016. Even if it off by two here and Trump wins by two, that is about a 7 point swing away from him. What do you think that implies for Minnesota and Wisconsin. Those double digit leads in Minnesota suddenly make sense, don't they?

[tagimaucia]

I'd also like to point out that if you believe the 2016 Iowa exit poll, in which the 10% of voters who decided their presidential vote "in the last few days" went for Trump 56% to 34% (10% times an 22% margin = 2.2%), that would mean that Selzer's poll result of Trump +7% (in the field November 1-4) was... literally exactly right at the time.

[Niemeyerite]

If Iowa is still tied a month from now, this race is over. Awful poll for Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html

LoL thanks for reminding us how accurate these polls usually are.

[VAR]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)