Which race from nowhere will be competitive come nov 7th.

[MissCatholic]

I hate to say it but i think its going to Washington.

I really like Maria Cantwell but i dont think washington does. so i think this could be a nailbiter like 2000. I am not impressed with the republican candidate but thats politics republicans usually elect jerks that win; talent, santorum, demint, chambliss etc.

Her approval rating is a joke as she has finally put the sock in ted stevens mouth. I hope she wins but i am a bit nervous on this one.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree Washington might look worrying, but I don't think Washington will come close to electing a Republican this year.  However, I agree that disatisfaction with the Democratic-controlled Legislature and the unpopularity of Governor Christine Gregoire could be a factor.  If Dino Rossi campaigns for McGavick the race could tighten, but I would be surprised if Cantwell was beaten or even won by a smaller margin than John Kerry's 52%-45% in 2004.

I think the race that will come from nowhere, to get back to the original question, could be Barbara Cubin in Wyoming, it would be very satisfying to see a Democrat win there.

[7,052,770]

Arizona senate

[nini2287]

All of these could-NE Sen, KS Gov, OK Gov, RI Gov, FL Sen or VA Sen

[Wiz in Wis]

VA senate or TN Gov

[Alcon]

First of all, I have to clear up a misconception, Adlai.  The Democrat-controlled legislature is not unpopular.  In fact, they had an amazingly productive session.  As with every state, few people pay attention to the legislature and approval is generally low no matter what.  There was some bad news regarding the deficit, but the Democrats will be able to run on their productive session.  Once they start advertising, they will start running ahead, especially in the remaining Seattle suburbs where Republicans control seats in Democratic districts.  Gregoire is not popular, but I would not call her ragingly unpopular either.

Washington polls evenly.  Always.  That is because the Democrats are strongly Democratic and the Republicans are usually strongly Republican.  The range at which Washington will vote ranges from about 65% Democratic (a popular incumbent in a minor state office versus a Republican who was unendorsed by his own party) to 55% Republican (a popular incumbent Republican versus a nobody).

Just look at 2004 polling - it was extremely even.  Given the option between two sane candidates, Washington will generally vote for the Democrat (especially if an incumbent) by a margin similar to their approval rating.

Just thought I'd explain it.

[Gabu]

The range at which Washington will vote ranges from about 65% Democratic (a popular incumbent in a minor state office versus a Republican who was unendorsed by his own party) to 55% Republican (a popular incumbent Republican versus a nobody).

Unless the Democrat's name is Henry Jackson, in which case it looks like this:

[Alcon]

The range at which Washington will vote ranges from about 65% Democratic (a popular incumbent in a minor state office versus a Republican who was unendorsed by his own party) to 55% Republican (a popular incumbent Republican versus a nobody).

Unless the Democrat's name is Henry Jackson, in which case it looks like this:

Yes, although he does suffer from being a tad dead.

[Gabu]

Yes, although he does suffer from being a tad dead.

HE WILL RISE AGAIN

[Alcon]

Yes, although he does suffer from being a tad dead.

HE WILL RISE AGAIN

Hey, anyone who can nearly break 90 percent in Benton County as a Democrat can probably rise from the dead.

[Adlai Stevenson]

OK well thanks for the analysis.  What do you predict Cantwell will win by then?

[Gabu]

OK well thanks for the analysis.  What do you predict Cantwell will win by then?

I'm not Alcon, but I predict Cantwell will win by the exact margin the polls have her up by right now.  Washington races are very, very boring.  They rarely change.

[Alcon]

OK well thanks for the analysis.  What do you predict Cantwell will win by then?

Eh, I'd wait until summer to make a prediction.  Early Washington polls tend to average out to the same things but jump around a bit.  That is, the average will be what the final margin is, but the polls themselves will vary.  Considering that we have one or two reliable companies polling right now, it's hard to tell what that average is.

I'd guess the margin to be similar to Kerry's.  There is a possibility the GOP can win, but only if McGavick turns out to be a really interesting guy.  It also depends on how many Democrats don't show up or vote for the Green, but in reality the heart and soul of the Washington Democratic Party is suburban votes - and it's unlikely that they will be upset at Cantwell for beign "too conservative."

[Soaring Eagle]

I hate to say it but i think its going to Washington.

I really like Maria Cantwell but i dont think washington does. so i think this could be a nailbiter like 2000. I am not impressed with the republican candidate but thats politics republicans usually elect jerks that win; talent, santorum, demint, chambliss etc.

Her approval rating is a joke as she has finally put the sock in ted stevens mouth. I hope she wins but i am a bit nervous on this one.

How exactly is Talent a jerk? The others you listed are obvious, but I didn't follow the MO Senate race in 2002 very closely.

Oh, and I expect AZ and VA to be closer than expected.

[TomC]

I think Soaring Eagle had it right with VA.

[adam]

The race for my district's (TX-21) congressional seat. it has gotten no press at all, and not one poll has been ran except for the one that showed about 65% of the districts voters were definately going to or considering voting against incumbent Lamar Smith.

[Smash255]

Could be wishful thinking on my part, but I think my district NY-03 is going to wind up being quite competitive.  Mejias who got in the race late is running a strong campaign and is doing a good job of tieing King to Bush (who is quite unpopular here).  their will be two blowouts on the top of the ticket.  And over the last month several pundits have moved this race out of the safe GOP category.

[12th Doctor]

The range at which Washington will vote ranges from about 65% Democratic (a popular incumbent in a minor state office versus a Republican who was unendorsed by his own party) to 55% Republican (a popular incumbent Republican versus a nobody).

Unless the Democrat's name is Henry Jackson, in which case it looks like this:

Yes, although he does suffer from being a tad dead.

That and the fact that he would be a Republican today.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Take a look at MN-1.

Gutknecht isn't a very strong incumbent. His support is accurately described as "a mile wide and an inch deep". People are willing to vote for him, but no one would miss him, not even the Republicans are crazy about him since he's largely a do-nothing. But as an entrenched incumbent usually able to raise more money in a marginal GOP district, no one ever gives him a serious challenge, and he keeps winning.

Tim Walz is the strongest challenger he has faced in a very long time. Walz has actually raised more money than him so far, and is running a serious and aggressive campaign. In addition Gutknecht is getting hit for the fact that he's breaking his term limits pledge, that he has been caught getting his staff to edit his wikipedia bio to make it more favorable and the simple state of the national GOP and the fact that Kennedy is about to receive a serious thrashing. If Klobuchar destroys him badly enough, her coattails could spread to this district. One to keep on the radar at least.

I've also met Walz personally, and he's a seriously awesome and approachable guy. Gutknecht comes across as a stuffy suit while Walz is down to earth. That is definitely a bonus.

[MarkWarner08]

Barbara Cubin, Jean Schmidt and Tom Reynolds could all be upset on election day. All three of those races have been largely under the political radarscreen.

[Keystone Phil]

Eh...I'll make a goofy pick - PA 12 - Murtha vs. Irey


Murtha's joke opponent from 2000 and 2002 was able to get to 30%. Irey will get to at least 38-40% and anything above that will make this a race worth watching. A Murtha win in the end but still competitive...possibly. 

[poughies]

Cubin in Wyoming will surprise, but then again maybe not........

[Deano963]

Barbara Cubin, Jean Schmidt and Tom Reynolds could all be upset on election day. All three of those races have been largely under the political radarscreen.

And Bill Sali as well...that man is an absolute embarrassment, even for a republican.

[socaldem]

CA-04

John Doolittle's been pummelled by his opponent air force Vet Charlie Brown.  I loved his "corrupt or ineffective" radio spot and he's also blasted Doolittle for allowing forced abortions.  Granted, the district is as conservative as they come in California, but it has some suburbs that would be open to the moderate message of Brown and some ski towns that are quite liberal.

Also Doolittle may have a little more to worry about if the Abrahamoff investigation continues to expand.

KS-02

Nancy Boyda's run a good campaign and though she lost by a lot last time, Jim Ryun's been having some ethical issues.  If she can continue to slam him on that and exploit the moderate/extreme GOP divide that has fractured the Kansas Republicans, she'll have a chance.  Plus with Kathleen Sebelius cruising to a strong win, she may be able to ride coattails that were lacking when she lost last time.

MN-01

I agree with the above poster.  Plus Gutknecht has flubbed on the BNS railroad issue.  Rochester also features a number of competitive legislative districts where Dems are primed to make gains.  I can see them picking up this district as well.  It now looks like, perhaps their best opportunity in MN, though Dems are still in the fight in the more GOP areas of MN-06 & MN-02 where the incumbents are weaker than the fairly lackluster, but not outrageous, Gutknecht.

TX-23

This race is most certainly going to a run-off.  If Dems retake the House by a significant margin, they may have a fundraising advantage in knocking off an extra GOP incumbent.  The run-off would only be a race, though, if a Dem other than Ciro Rodriguez makes it to the run-off.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd go w/these:

WA Sen:
McGavick can self-finance and he certainly seems to have overcome his DUI charge and made this a 5-8 point race again

VT Sen:
Call me crazy (which I'm sure someone will quote this and do), but Tarrant is a fundraising machine.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a race out of this.

PA-13?
The race w/Raj from the Apprentice, Allison Schwartz is not that popular and Raj is doing well at raising funds and has high name recognition from being on national TV