ME-Suffolk: Gideon +5/+7
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  ME-Suffolk: Gideon +5/+7
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Author Topic: ME-Suffolk: Gideon +5/+7  (Read 1481 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 21, 2020, 09:56:50 AM »

Gideon 46%
Collins 41%
Savage 4%
Linn 2%

RCV
Gideon 49%
Collins 42%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7214149/MaineCrosstabs.pdf
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WD
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 09:57:21 AM »

How concerning.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 09:57:48 AM »

Crystal Ball made the right call moving this to Lean D.
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Gracile
gracile
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 10:02:31 AM »

More believable than some of the other ME polls we've been seeing (Biden being up 20 always seemed unrealistic). The good news for Gideon, too, is that she's not underperforming the top of the ticket by as much as in those polls. It wouldn't surprise me if we see more polls where Gideon runs closer to Biden given the SCOTUS news.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 10:06:23 AM »

So, the RBG death is having the same effect as Kavanaugh, its energizing Dems moreso than Rs, due to the fact we are still in a Covid environment.

While Trump doesn't call for a national mask and believes in fossil fuels instead of clean energy and will hurt his chances in FL
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2020, 10:18:23 AM »

For the Boston Globe: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/21/metro/collins-trails-gideon-maine-senate-race-according-new-suffolkglobe-poll/

500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

First ballot:
Other 1%
Refused 1%
Undecided 5%

With second choices for non-Collins/Gideon supporters (but not for people who selected 'undecided' or 'refused'):

Gideon 49%
Collins 42%
Savage 1%
Linn 1%
Refused 1% (not including "refused [to transfer]" - keep these voters with Savage and assume they leave the rest of the ballot blank)
Other 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 6%

The question only asked for second preferences, not third, fourth, etc. It led to a scenario where Linn/Savage backers picked other minor candidates and we never discerned their Collins/Gideon preferences despite them being able to rank more choices.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2020, 10:20:37 AM »

Ouch.

Favorabilities:
Sara Gideon 56/37 (+19)
Susan Collins 45/45 (=)

This has Collins winning Indies, which we really haven't seen before, but Gideon is also consolidating even more Dems than Collins is Rs.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2020, 10:24:07 AM »

Gideon is DOOMED, DOOMED I tell you
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 10:43:21 AM »

Susan Collins must be so disappointed. She might even be concerned.
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2020, 10:58:07 AM »


Dare I say... Finished?
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2020, 11:11:38 AM »


What do you think the finishing move should be?
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2020, 11:13:31 AM »

Outlier poll. Doesn't account for Collins' exceptional performance in the debate that was watched by the entire population of Maine
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2020, 11:34:31 AM »

Yet another poll which shows Collins down. Her position remains very vulnerable, and the ensuing fight over Ginsburg's successor has the potential to weaken it even further, as voters will be reminded (and already have been) of the critical role she played in getting Brett Kavanaugh confirmed. I have no doubt that Gideon is going to hammer on this over the next month.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2020, 12:57:19 PM »

I thought Gideon's really strong favorability from the NYT/Siena poll may have been an outlier b/c it seemed *really* strong for a newcomer, but this poll confirms it.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2020, 01:25:15 PM »

Gideon is winning moderates by 15 points.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2020, 07:48:09 AM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Suffolk University on 2020-09-20

Summary: D: 46%, R: 41%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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