More likely to flip?

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Wisconsin. I believe Biden will win Wisconsin and Trump will win Arizona.

Based on what rationale?

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Wisconsin. I believe Biden will win Wisconsin and Trump will win Arizona.

Based on what rationale?

I do think Trump will do better among hispanics than he did in 2016 by a few points.

Ok so multiple things here:

1) A new NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll today shows Biden with a 62-26% lead over Trump nationally with Latino voters. Trump got 28% in 2016.

2) Polls generally underestimate Democratic support among Latino voters (for various reasons).

3) Trump has (seemingly) improved among Cuban voters in Florida. Florida Cubans may be important in Florida but Biden doesn't need FL to win the election. Also, Cubans are an insignificant percentage of the Latino vote nationally.

4) Most Latino voters in America are of Mexican descent. The overwhelming majority of Latino voters in Arizona are of Mexican descent. Biden has been doing just as well, if not even better, among Mexican-American voters as Hillary did.

5) Most polls in the past 4 months have shown Biden with a lead in Arizona. Usually around 2-5%.

6) Martha McSally is generally hated among most Latino voters in AZ and Mark Kelly is doing great and will help Biden in AZ.