More likely to flip?
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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  More likely to flip?
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Poll
Question: More likely to flip?
#1
Arizona
 
#2
Wisconsin
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: More likely to flip?  (Read 458 times)
AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 20, 2020, 04:37:07 PM »

I believe that I've asked this before, but let's check again. In my opinion, Arizona may show to be more favorable to Democrats than initially thought.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2020, 04:40:51 PM »

AZ is a very possible flip to Biden, but it is not more likely than WI, the state Obama carried by large margins twice and the state Democrats swept in 2018. WI is probably the second easiest flip for Biden (after MI), as all Biden needs to do is raise turnout in Milwaukee while cutting down Trump's 2016 margins in suburban and rural areas. It's extremely doable, and with the investments Dems have put in WI this cycle, I'd be shocked if WI doesn't flip.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2020, 06:15:45 PM »

AZ is Likely D, WI is Lean D, so AZ.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2020, 06:21:11 PM »

Both are likely D, Biden's been polling a bit better in WI so WI.
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2020, 06:27:31 PM »

AZ is close to solid. Trump could still pull off a win in Wisconsin though time is running out.
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2020, 07:55:05 PM »

Think I've said AZ before so I'll stick with that
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2020, 08:04:37 PM »

Arizona.Disagree with Wasserman though.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2020, 08:05:19 PM »

I'd say Wisconsin as it was closer in 2016
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2020, 08:06:43 PM »

Arizona.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2020, 08:09:55 PM »

Wisconsin. I believe Biden will win Wisconsin and Trump will win Arizona.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 08:10:49 PM »

Wisconsin. I believe Biden will win Wisconsin and Trump will win Arizona.
Based on what rationale? Huh
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2020, 08:22:47 PM »

Though we got burned on the polls in 2016, I do still think Wisconsin is likely D and Biden seems to be in an even better position there than in Arizona, which I think is also almost certain to flip at this point.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2020, 08:25:33 PM »

Wisconsin. I believe Biden will win Wisconsin and Trump will win Arizona.
Based on what rationale? Huh
I do think Trump will do better among hispanics than he did in 2016 by a few points.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2020, 08:37:39 PM »

Wisconsin. I believe Biden will win Wisconsin and Trump will win Arizona.
Based on what rationale? Huh
I do think Trump will do better among hispanics than he did in 2016 by a few points.
Ok so multiple things here:

1) A new NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll today shows Biden with a 62-26% lead over Trump nationally with Latino voters. Trump got 28% in 2016.

2) Polls generally underestimate Democratic support among Latino voters (for various reasons).

3) Trump has (seemingly) improved among Cuban voters in Florida. Florida Cubans may be important in Florida but Biden doesn't need FL to win the election. Also, Cubans are an insignificant percentage of the Latino vote nationally.

4) Most Latino voters in America are of Mexican descent. The overwhelming majority of Latino voters in Arizona are of Mexican descent. Biden has been doing just as well, if not even better, among Mexican-American voters as Hillary did.

5) Most polls in the past 4 months have shown Biden with a lead in Arizona. Usually around 2-5%.

6) Martha McSally is generally hated among most Latino voters in AZ and Mark Kelly is doing great and will help Biden in AZ.
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