Districts based on McCain '08 voters

[bagelman]

A map of the 2008 electoral college in this world, with states colored on how many EV's they gain or lose relative to our world's 2008.

When I've been bored, especially during this quarantine, I've been making maps based on states apportioned based on number of voters for a specific candidate. In other worlds, states where each CD has an equal number of votes for a particular candidate, ignoring their total population. The result is an alternate US where the population is differently distributed, more evenly at the cost of large cities and DC becoming a glorified federal campus. I've pretty much made all of them: DRA is strangely addicting for me.

This has generally been Obama '08, McCain '08 (this thread), Hillary '16, or Trump '16. This map series will show each state's congressional districts in this world, the population they have in our world, and how McCain and Obama did in them in our world.

In this world, McCain won the election, but in order to do so he had to emphasis his moderate credentials and even openly criticize Bush whose approvals continued to tank despite no Great Recession. Also, no Palin, she remains the obscure and unpopular wingnut Alaska governor. Obama came off as inexperienced and insincere, like a young college professor. It's likely he'll continue to rise as an important Democratic senator, but a second presidential run for him won't happen until 2020 or so. Hillary is the obvious early favorite for 2012, but that's 4 years away and the nomination of a third term of the Clinton duo is by no means guaranteed.

[bagelman]

Alabama, 9 districts



AL-1: Black VRA district. Obama +40.8 (70-29), white-black 32-63.

AL-2: Southwest Alabama and White Gulf Coast. McCain +38.7 (69-30, white-black 73-20.

AL-3: Florida border. McCain +43.2 (71-28), white-black 72-22.

AL-4: Southeast and East Alabama. McCain +26.6 (63-36), white-black 68-28.

AL-5: Central Alabama. McCain +48.8 (74-25), white-hispanic-black 77-5-14. Includes some suburbia.

AL-6: Northeast of Birmingham. McCain +54.2 (77-22), white-black 84-11. Would probably vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D).

AL-7: Northeast Alabama. McCain +42.1 (71-28), white-hispanic-black 83-6-8.

AL-8: Northwest of Birmingham. McCain +56.9 (78-21), white-black 89-7.

AL-9: Tennessee Valley. McCain +19, white-hispanic-black 70-6-22. Conservative, but not by the standards of Alabama.

Overall 8 Republicans and 1 Democrat.

[bagelman]

Arkansas, 5 districts



AR-1: East Arkansas. McCain +9.3, white-black 68-28.

AR-2: Little Rock. McCain +4.3, white-hispanic-black 67-5-26.

AR-3: North Arkansas. McCain +35.9 (66-30), 91% white.

AR-4: Southwest Arkansas. McCain +28.9 (63-34), white-hispanic-black 75-5-17.

AR-5: Northwest Arkansas. McCain +27.1 (62-35), white-hispanic 76-14.

5 Republicans, although district 2 may be winnable for Democrats if 2010 goes their way.

[bagelman]

Arizona, 9 districts



AZ-1: Tucson. Obama +11.2, white-hispanic-black 53-37-5.

AZ-2: South and Southeast Arizona including outer Tucson. McCain +13, white-hispanic-black-native 56-33-5-6.

AZ-3: West Arizona. McCain +25.4, white-hispanic 66-29.

AZ-4: Northeast Arizona. McCain +9.6, white-hispanic-native 59-13-26.

AZ-5: East Sun Valley. McCain +33.3 (63-36), white-hispanic 69-21.

AZ-6: West Sun Valley. McCain +15.5, white-hispanic-black 58-31-7.

AZ-7: North-Central Sun Valley. McCain +21.7 (60-39), white-hispanic-asian 77-14-5.

AZ-8: Central Sun Valley. Obama +1.1, white-hispanic-black 49-40-6.

AZ-9: South Sun Valley. Obama +7.9, white-hispanic-black-asian 46-38-9-6.

3 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

[bagelman]

California, 36 districts



CA-01: NorCal. McCain +1, white-hispanic-native 75-14-7.

CA-02: Lakes Tahoe to Clear. McCain +0.8, white-hispanic-asian 71-18-6.

CA-03: Yosemite and Death Valley. McCain +12, white-hispanic 67-25.

CA-04: SF and North Bay. Obama +63, white-hispanic-black-asian 54-18-5-22.

CA-05: Roseville+. McCain +9.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 71-14-5-9.

CA-06: Sacramento. Obama +29, white-hispanic-black-asian 42-23-15-20.

CA-07: Northeast Bay, Wine, and eastern small towns. Obama +23.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 47-28-10-15.

CA-08: Contra Costa. Obama +39.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 48-24-11-17.

CA-09: Berkeley to north San Jose and out to Livermore. Obama +58.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 32-22-13-33.

CA-10: San Jose. Obama +43.2, white-hispanic-asian 36-29-33.

CA-11: Stockton-Modesto. Obama +10.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 39-41-7-13.

CA-12: Silicon Valley and rich liberals. Obama +47.4, white-hispanic-asian 47-28-21.

CA-13: Merced-Fresno hugger. Obama +6.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 32-51-6-11.

CA-14: Coast out to Central Valley. Obama +7.6, white-hispanic-asian 35-56-6.



CA-15: Kern. McCain +18.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 39-49-7-5.

CA-16: Santa Barbara. Obama +19.2, white-hispanic-asian 57-36-6.

CA-17: Oxnard and Thousand Rich People. Obama +11.8, white-hispanic-asian 50-38-9.

CA-18: San Gabriel. Obama +2.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 53-28-5-15.

CA-19: Northwest LA. Obama +40.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 38-46-5-12.

CA-20: LA West Coast. Obama +39.8, white-hispanic-asian 68-12-16.

CA-21: Central LA. Obama +68.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 11-63-17-10. 3.4 million lived here once.

CA-22: LA South Coast. Obama +29, white-hispanic-black-asian 28-46-9-18.

CA-23: Northeast LA. Obama +31.2, white-hispanic-asian 17-52-30.

CA-24: Anaheim. Obama +6.6, white-hispanic-asian 22-48-27.

CA-25: North Orange. McCain +13, white-hispanic-asian 48-31-18.

CA-26: Ontario+. Obama +18.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 25-54-9-14.

CA-27: Central Orange Coast. Obama +0.8, white-hispanic-asian 48-33-17.

CA-28: Riverside and San Bernardino proper. Obama +16.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 29-53-12-7.

CA-29: Corona-Hemet-Palm Desert. McCain +2.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 47-39-7-7.

CA-30: Wealthy South Orange. McCain +1.8, white-hispanic-asian 63-16-19.

CA-31: Camp Pendleton's neighbors. McCain +13.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 58-29-5-8.

CA-32: North SD County. Near tie between McCain and Obama, white-hispanic-asian 57-31-9.

CA-33: North San Diego. Obama +21.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 60-15-5-21.

CA-34: Outer San Diego. McCain +10.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 66-21-6-7.

CA-35: Lancaster/Victorville out to Mojave. McCain +6, white-hispanic-black 42-40-13.

CA-36: Mexican Border and Salton Sea. Obama +27.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 22-60-8-11.

11 Republicans and 25 Democrats are the current delegation from California. Plenty of these represent purple districts that could be won by the other side.

[bagelman]

Colorado, 8 districts



CO-1: Denver. Obama +42.7 (71-28), white-hispanic-black-asian 50-35-11-5.

CO-2: East Colorado. McCain +20.6, white-hispanic 69-26.

CO-3: Boulder/Fort Collins. Obama +25.3 (62-37), white-hispanic 82-12.

CO-4: Northwest and West Suburbia. Obama +8.7, white-hispanic-asian 79-14-5.

CO-5: Southern Denver. McCain +3, white-hispanic-black-asian 79-9-5-7.

CO-6: Ski resorts, exurbs, and Pueblo. Obama +5.2, white-hispanic 75-21.

CO-7: Colorado Springs. McCain +16.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 71-16-8-5.

CO-8: West Colorado. McCain +14.1, white-hispanic 78-17.

An even 4-4 split.

[bagelman]

Connecticut, 5 districts



CT-1: Southwest. Obama +23.5 (61-38), white-hispanic-black-asian 62-19-34-6.

CT-2: Central West. Obama +1.4, white-hispanic 86-6. Likely R.

CT-3: New Haven-Hartford. Obama +40.7 (70-29), white-hispanic-black 56-21-20.

CT-4: Northwest and Hartford suburbs. Obama +17, white-hispanic-black 83-7-6.

CT-5: East. Obama +18.8, white-hispanic-black 84-7-5.

With CT-2 blue, it's 5 Democrats from CT.

[Chips]

What did the map look like in this alternate timeline?

[bagelman]

Florida, 29 districts



FL-01: Pensacola. McCain +25.4 (62-37), white-hispanic-black 70-6-19.

FL-02: Western Panhandle. McCain +50.8 (75-24), white-black 84-8. The scary conservative part of the state.

FL-03: Eastern Panhandle. Obama +4.2, white-hispanic-black 62-6-29.

FL-04: North Central. McCain +35.1 (67-32), white-hispanic-black 79-6-13.

FL-05: Outer Jacksonville. McCain +18.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 66-7-22-5.

FL-06: Inner Jacksonville. McCain +1.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 56-8-32-5.

FL-07: Palm Coast to Gainesville. McCain +2.5, white-hispanic-black 73-8-15.

FL-08: Ocala to Homosassa. McCain +12.9, white-hispanic-black 77-10-11.

FL-09: Daytona Deltona. Obama +5.7, white-hispanic-black 72-12-13.

FL-10: Land of Lakes and golf carts. McCain +13.5, white-hispanic-black 71-14-12.

FL-11: North and East Orlando. McCain +0.5, white-hispanic-black-asian 67-19-10-5.

FL-12: West Orlando to Kissimmee. Obama +27.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 38-35-23-6.

FL-13: Titusville to Melbourne. McCain +12.5, white-hispanic-black 79-7-10.

FL-14: Sebastian to Port St. Lucie. McCain +0.7, white-hispanic-black 70-13-15.

FL-15: North of Tampa Bay. McCain +2.9, white-hispanic-black 81-11-5.

FL-16: Clearwater. Obama +1.9, white-hispanic-black 81-9-6.

FL-17: North Outer Tampa Bay. McCain +7.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 67-19-9-5.

FL-18: Tampa Bay Core. Obama +25.5, white-hispanic-black 51-22-25.

FL-19: Lakeland. McCain +10.5, white-hispanic-black 68-15-15.

FL-20: Bradenton out to the Kissimmee. McCain +10.7, white-hispanic-black 68-20-10.

FL-21: Sarasota to Charlotte. McCain +1.1, white-hispanic-black 85-7-6.

FL-22: Fort Myers. McCain +9.8, white-hispanic-black 71-18-10.

FL-23: Naples and Okeechobee. McCain +17.4, white-hispanic-black 63-25-11.

FL-24: Palm Beach. Obama +22.8, white-hispanic-black 55-22-20.

FL-25: Deerfield and neighbors. Obama +25.1, white-hispanic-black 64-15-17.

FL-26: Lauderdale. Obama +35.1, white-hispanic-black 45-34-28.

FL-27: Miami. Obama +43.5, white-hispanic-black 19-48-34.

FL-28: New Cuba. McCain +22.9, white-hispanic 10-88.

FL-29: South Florida. Obama +11.1, white-hispanic-black 24-61-14

19 Republicans and 10 Democrats

[bagelman]

What did the map look like in this alternate timeline?

Hmm, here's the minimum McCain needs to win with the new EV map. One thing I could do is try an average out all the margins in each of these new CDs to determine the state result, problem is Obama won by so much in our timeline that he would likely win anyway. I think I tried that with Ohio and the result was, bizarrely, a better Obama margin than OTL, almost certainly because of some kind of mistake I made.

[bagelman]

Georgia, 15 districts



GA-01: Fulton County. Obama +42 (71-29), white-hispanic-black-asian 38-8-49-6.

GA-02: Northwest Georgia. McCain +45.4 (72-27), white-hispanic-black 82-11-6.

GA-03: Northeast Georgia. McCain +53.8 (76-23), white-hispanic-black 79-13-6.

GA-04: Northern Exurbia. McCain +53.8 (76-23), white-hispanic-black-asian 81-9-5-5.

GA-05: WNW Exurbia. McCain +19.9, white-hispanic-black 63-8-27.

GA-06: Marietta. McCain +11.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 58-13-23-6. If trends follow OTL, will become competitive.

GA-07: WSW Exurbia. McCain +33 (66-33), white-hispanic-black 70-5-22.

GA-08: South and East suburbia. Obama +40.6 (70-29), white-hispanic-black 33-10-53.

GA-09: Gwinnett. McCain +10.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 43-22-24-13. If trends follow OTL, will become competitive or D-leaning.

GA-10: East and Southeast Exurbia. McCain +20.1, white-hispanic-black 61-6-31. Approaches Macon.

GA-11: East Georgia. McCain +13.3, white-hispanic-black 64-5-28.

GA-12: Augusta to Savannah. Obama +6.9, white-hispanic-black 52-5-41.

GA-13: Southeast Georgia. McCain +31.4 (65-34), white-hispanic-black 66-6-26.

GA-14: Outer Southwest Georgia. McCain +38.6 (69-30), white-hispanic-black 68-6-24.

GA-15: Southwest Georgia Macon/Columbus. Obama +16.3, white-hispanic-black 43-5-51.

4 Democrats and 11 Republicans.

[bagelman]

Iowa, 5 districts



IA-1: East and Northeast. Obama +18.6, white-black 90-5.

IA-2: Southeast. Obama +14.1, white-hispanic 89-5.

IA-3: North Central. Obama +11.9, 91% white. If trends follow OTL, will become the second most conservative district.

IA-4: South Central including Dest Moines. Obama +9.2, white-hispanic-black 84-7-5. If trends follow OTL, will become more liberal than even the 1st.

IA-5: West. McCain +11.3, white-hispanic 89-7.

4 Democrats and 1 Republican.

[bagelman]

Idaho, 3 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8a95b226-dac9-4b60-bcc1-215aaca222cc



ID-1: Most of state's land. McCain +23.5 (61-37), white-hispanic 90-6.

ID-2: Boise and western suburbs. McCain +13.9, white-hispanic 85-10.

ID-3: Mormon Southeast. McCain +42.1 (70-28), white-hispanic 85-11. Includes Twin and Idaho Falls.

Idaho has 3 Republicans. ID-2 will probably hold even in a good Democratic year, but it could flip in a great one. 

Illinois, 15 districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/493d0da5-4410-4d1e-8abb-727b3d6df9d5



IL-01: Chicago. Obama +74.9 (87-12), white-hispanic-black 23-32-43.

IL-02: Northern Chicago. Obama +46.3 (73-26), white-hispanic-black-asian 64-15-8-13.

IL-03: Lake County and northern Cook. Obama +20.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 67-20-7-8.

IL-04: Shaumburg area. Obama +17.2, white-hispanic-asian 65-18-14.

IL-05: Naperville area. Obama +8.9, white-hispanic-black-asian 74-10-6-10.

IL-06: Algonquin Aurora strip. Obama +10, white-hispanic-black 67-24-5.

IL-07: Chicago southwest suburbs. Obama +7.8, white-hispanic-black 80-11-6.

IL-08: Joliet. Obama +12.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 69-16-10-5.

IL-09: Northwest Illinois including Rockford. Obama +8.3, white-hispanic-black 79-11-9.

IL-10: Quad Cities/Peoria/farms and small towns. Obama +14.7, white-hispanic-black 82-7-9.

IL-11: Bloomington/Kanakee/farms. McCain +6.7, white-black 86-7.

IL-12: Central Mississippi/Springfield. Obama +0 (8 votes!), white-black 90-7.

IL-13: Decatur/Champaign/farms. Obama +2.2, white-black 83-10.

IL-14: Metro East/Mid Southern Strip. Obama +8.4, white-black 80-16.

IL-15: South. McCain +6.1, white-black 88-8.

Illinois has 13 Democrats and 2 Republicans, with IL-12 being decided by 8 votes.

Indiana, 10 districts



https://davesredistricting.org/join/0a1a8007-b2f0-4196-802c-feb0364f9df0

IN-01: Northwest. Obama +23.4 (61-38), white-hispanic-black 68-13-18.

IN-02: North/South Bend. McCain +2.4, white-hispanic-black 80-9-8.

IN-03: Northeast/Ft. Wayne. McCain +10.3, white-hispanic-black 84-5-8.

IN-04: North Central. McCain +17.4, white-hispanic 89-5.

IN-05: East. McCain +3.6, white-black 91-5.

IN-06: West including Lafayette, Terre Haute, Bloomington. Obama +6.9, 89% white.

IN-07: Inner Indianapolis. Obama +27.5 (63-36), white-hispanic-black 58-9-30.

IN-08: Outer Indianapolis. McCain +20.6, 89% white.

IN-09: Southeast. McCain +14.2, 92% white.

IN-10: South and Southwest. McCain +6.7, 92% white.

Indiana currently has 3 Democrats and 7 Republicans. However the GOP incumbents in districts 2 and 5 will be vulnerable in 2010.

[bagelman]

Kansas, 5 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bc05827a-bd3e-416d-a1d8-ed6a832be4ca

KS-1: Johnson County. McCain +10.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 89-7-5-5.

KS-2: Southeast and from Emporia to Abilene. McCain +13, white-hispanic 86-6.

KS-3: Northeast including Topeka and KCK. McCain +0.1 (+273 votes), white-hispanic-black 73-12-12. Fool's gold, especially if trends follow OTL.

KS-4: Wichita and environs. McCain +16.5, white-hispanic-black 74-12-9.

KS-5: West Kansas. McCain +42.1 (70-28), white-hispanic 78-17.

Kentucky, 8 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4a6a8a5d-66cf-44cf-93bf-65dceabc87c1

KY-1: East. McCain +18.7, 96% white.

KY-2: south of Cincinnati, Covington to Georgetown. McCain +24.3 (61-37), 91% white.

KY-3: Central Kentucky, Lexington and small towns south. McCain +10.8, white-hispanic-black 81-5-11. Probably the most competitive seat, but still Likely R.

KY-4: South and Southeast Kentucky. McCain +49.8 (74-24), 95% white.

KY-5: Outside Louisville. McCain +22.9 (61-38), white-black 90-5.

KY-6: Louisville. Obama +16.2, white-hispanic-black 68-5-24. The 1 in 7-1.

KY-7: Central West Kentucky, including Liztown, Bowling Green, and Owensboro. McCain +21.4 (60-39), white-black 87-7.

KY-8: West Kentucky. McCain +19.8, white-black 87-9.

Maryland and DC, 7 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/21d0b6fd-a0aa-485b-8be9-b19b70e5d643

MD-1: West Panhandle. McCain +10, white-hispanic-black 82-5-9.

MD-2: Gaithersburg/Columbia/Woodlawn. Obama +29.5, white-hispanic-black-asian 52-10-23-15.

MD-3: Baltimore. Obama +42.1 (70-28), white-black 46-46. Blacks outnumber whites by less than 700 people.

MD-4: Northeast Maryland (not including the actual Northeast corner). McCain +16.1, white-black 77-15.

MD-5: East Maryland. McCain +10.7, white-black 76-18.

MD-6: Annapolis-Glen Burnie. McCain +3.3, white-hispanic-black 74-6-16.

MD-7: Beltway. Obama +64 (82-18), white-hispanic-black-asian 30-15-48-8. Includes Washington DC.

Note: In a McCain victory scenario, several Obama districts listed on this thread would likely go to McCain. You can imagine the true partisan values applied to the house results.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Based and Bagel-pilled!

[bagelman]

Michigan: https://davesredistricting.org/join/4ef47685-6655-4981-bee2-35bc03c86653

Michigan is a blue state that voted for the losing Democratic candidate. Republicans will target 5, 11, 14, and 15 in the future and already have 6, 9, and 12. The rest are pretty Democratic, especially 1 and 2. Democrats have 12/15 seats.

Maine, 2 districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f9ac169-a202-41ea-96e3-6998f81b2f5a Both fairly blue.

Missouri, 11 districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/84648813-8bbd-461c-a667-8dec1d1121f0

Missouri is seen as a "pink" state that's getting redder slowly. With Republicans flipping the 3rd, they hold a commanding 9-2 lead.

Minnesota, 11 districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/53587775-7da1-4484-91c1-85bb8a085126

Minnesota voted for Obama, but Republicans have had some luck in the west, flipping 4 and 9 while holding 5 and 7. Democrats only have a 5-4 advantage in a clean east-west divide.

Mississippi, 5 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5877949d-9b5f-477d-9c35-9ca4076722db

MS-1: North Mississippi. McCain +38.9 (69-30), white-black 75-20.

MS-2: East Mississippi. McCain +18.8, white-black 60-36.

MS-3: Central and South Mississippi. McCain +44.4 (72-27), white-black 71-25. No Dixiecrats here, just rock ribbed R's.

MS-4: Gulf Coast. McCain +36.2 (68-31), white-black 71-22.

MS-5: West Mississippi/VRA seat. Obama +30, white-black 34-63.

Red state 4-1 R. 

Montana, 2 districts: https://davesredistricting.org/join/b40f670b-9456-4d63-b2da-3dc61af14f28

Small purple state, 1 of each.

[bagelman]

North Carolina, 15 districts https://davesredistricting.org/join/afbc08c7-f27c-4eab-b256-fd5c6658e231

Republicans are frustrated in the 15th, but hold the 5th and their other seats easily enough in this OTL Obama/ATL McCain swing state. Republicans have a 8-7 advantage

Nebraska, 3 districts https://davesredistricting.org/join/57351828-2965-4473-9e59-4b47f8520c86

NE-1 (Omaha) is an important and narrow pickup for the GOP vs. OTL NE-2.

New Hampshire, 2 districts, https://davesredistricting.org/join/27b2b4fa-5fef-45ce-a5c5-7f43355e08a0

NH-1 is a purple seat that might vote McCain ATL but remain narrowly Democratic. NH-2, the larger district, is of course stronger Democrat.

New Jersey, 12 districts, https://davesredistricting.org/join/63a61d38-18eb-47e6-8258-47adde41ee7f

8D 4R. Republicans are close but not enough in 8, 6, and 5 in that order.

New Mexico, 3 districts, https://davesredistricting.org/join/4c6758e5-2cc8-4195-83ce-da7095f0141b

2D 1R is fair enough for this blueish state.

Nevada, 3 districts, https://davesredistricting.org/join/dbbe95d1-df76-49cd-80d1-95f0e8e8bd4d

NV-1: North Nevada, including Reno and Carson City. Obama +1.3, white-hispanic-asian 69-21-5.

NV-2: Central Nevada and Outer Las Vegas. Obama +2.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 62-18-9-10.

NV-3: Las Vegas. Obama +27.7 (63-35), white-hispanic-black-asian 41-35-13-10.

LOL at 3D sweep in Nevada.

New York, 20 districts https://davesredistricting.org/join/15ffadce-d994-4b97-8dfb-d4f68831dd4b

NY-01: Eastern Long Island. Obama +6, white-hispanic-black 77-13-6.

NY-02: West Suffolk. Obama +3.7, white-hispanic-black 68-19-9.

NY-03: East Nassau. Obama +3.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 73-13-7-7.

NY-04: South Long Island. Obama +17.1, white-hispanic-black-asian 56-19-21-5.

NY-05: Northwest Nassau and North Queens. In relation to the rest of New York, changes the least. NYC greatly loses population in relation to Long Island and Upstate. Obama +19.5, white-hispanic-black-asian 47-15-8-31.

NY-06: West Long Island. Obama +69.1 (84-15), white-hispanic-black-asian 27-22-42-11.

NY-07: Staten Island. McCain +6.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 61-15-8-16.

NY-08: Manhattan. Obama +71.2 (86-14), white-hispanic-black-asian 33-39-20-13.

NY-09: Midstate. Obama +46.5 (73-26), white-hispanic-black-asian 37-32-28-7. Includes much of the Bronx.

NY-10: Lower Hudson Valley. Obama +5.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 71-14-10-5.

NY-11: Hudson and Delaware. Obama +8.7, white-hispanic-black 72-15-11.

NY-12: Hudson and Albany. Obama +21.8 (60-38), white-hispanic-black 79-5-11.

NY-13: Upper Hudson and Champlain. Obama +8.1, 92% white.

NY-14: Delaware-Rome-Ontario. McCain +8.1, 92% white.

NY-15: Syracuse. Obama +13.5, white-black 82-10.

NY-16: Penn-Fingers-Ontario. Obama +9.8, white-black 89-5. Includes the college town of Ithaca.

NY-17: South Rochester and smaller towns. Obama +12.1, white-hispanic-black 79-5-13.

NY-18: North Buffalo-Niagara-North Rochester. Obama +22.7 (61-38), white-hispanic-black 70-7-21.

NY-19: South and Outer Buffalo. Obama +3.2, white-black 90-5.

NY-20: Erie Fingers. McCain +8.7, 92% white.

Obama was highly successful among blue state moderates in his loss, and thus 17D-3R in New York. Also note the OTL populations of NY-6 and NY-8, with the latter actually exceeding 3 million.

[bagelman]

Ohio, 19 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0b5fd78e-02b3-45e6-af6d-0475e85dc585

OH-01: Cincinnati. Obama +14.2, white-black 63-32.

OH-02: Cincinnati eastern suburbs and exurbs. McCain +26.5 (63-36), 92% white.

OH-03: Weirdly conservative part of Ohio that I don't understand. McCain +24.7, white-black 85-8.

OH-04: South Central Ohio. McCain +22.2 (60-38), white-black 91-5. From eastern suburban Dayton to Chillicoth to the river.

OH-05: Dayton and west. Obama +3.7, white-black 74-21. Lean R.

OH-06: South Ohio River. McCain +8.5, 93% white. Many small cities, Athens amoung them, and the southeast edges of the Columbus metro.

OH-07: Most of Columbus (Central and East). Obama +28.9 (64-35), white-hispanic-black 63-5-29.

OH-08: West Columbus area and slighty beyond. McCain +8.7, white-black-asian 86-6-6.

OH-09: West Central Ohio. McCain +24.6 (61-37), white-black 92-5. Largest city is Springfield in the southeast.

OH-10: Northwest Central Ohio. McCain +21.2, white-black 91-5. Mix of small cities and farms.

OH-11: MidOhio. McCain +17.9, white-black 92-5. A mix of Columbus suburbia along with Newark and Mansfield-Ashland in the north.

OH-12: Southeast Ohio. McCain +4.5, 95% white. Too bad this district has Millersburg and not Athens.

OH-13: Northwest Ohio. Obama +18.5, white-hispanic-black 78-6-14. Toledo easily overpowers the western farmland.

OH-14: Central Erie. Obama +10.5, white-hispanic-black 85-7-7.

OH-15:  Stark and Wayne. Obama +0.2 (828 votes), white-black 90-7. Lean R.

OH-16: True Northeast. Obama +16.7, white-black 87-10.

OH-17: Summit and Medina. Obama +12.5, white-black 82-14.

OH-18: East of Cleveland and Kent. Obama +20.3, white-black 75-20.

OH-19: Cleveland. Obama +39.9 (69-30), white-hispanic-black 62-6-30.

Overall: Obama +6.6. I don't understand, this is more Democratic than OTL.

Anyway, ignoring whatever happened with my math, this would be the tipping point state for McCain. Republicans pick up 6 and 12, but Democrats manage to hold 15, which along with 5 may have gone for McCain in the scenario where he wins. 10D-9R.

[bagelman]

Oklahoma, 7 districts https://davesredistricting.org/join/2a779c1d-e3c6-4687-9d7f-da2beed44922

All are Safe R, probably including OK-5 which could become more competitive in the future but not yet.

OK-1: Northeast. McCain +33.8 (67-33), white-native 67-25.

OK-2: Tusla. McCain +21.2 (61-39), white-hispanic-black-native 63-12-14-9.

OK-3: Southeast. McCain +35.4 (68-32), white-hispanic-black-native 70-5-5-21.

OK-4: North Central. McCain +41 (71-30), white-native 79-11.

OK-5: Oklahoma City. McCain +12.2, white-hispanic-black-native 67-16-19-6.

OK-6: South OKC suburbia. McCain +34.8 (67-33), white-hispanic-native 78-6-10.

OK-7: West. McCain +47.4 (74-26), white-hispanic-black-native 72-12-8-8.

Oregon, 5 districts

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1743f7c1-570a-449d-8260-8f97360bf3bf

OR-1: Portland. Obama +45.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 73-12-5-9.

OR-2: Suburban Portland. Obama +1.2, white-hispanic 78-15. Also includes suburbs of Salem.

OR-3: Northwest, Salem, Eugene. Obama +33, white-hispanic-asian 79-12-5.

OR-4: Southwest. Obama +0.2 (612 votes), white-hispanic 87-7.

OR-5: East. McCain +19.2, white-hispanic 82-12.

This is 3D-1R with 1 undecided and undergoing recount.

Pennsylvania, 19 districts, https://davesredistricting.org/join/e3677d03-87e8-499b-b437-cc455d5d6997

PA-01: Philly. Obama +65.4 (82-17), white-hispanic-black-asian 37-11-46-7.

PA-02: Bucks. Obama +8.9, 87% white

PA-03: ChestCo. Obama +14.3, white-black-asian 86-6-5.

PA-04: MontCo. Obama +16.2, white-black-asian 79-9-7.

PA-05: East Lancaster and Downingtown. Obama +4, white-hispanic-black 81-9-7.

PA-06: Lehigh Valley. Obama +12.7, white-hispanic-black 78-14-6.

PA-07: Reading. McCain +0.7, white-hispanic-black 82-13-5.

PA-08: Scranton and Northeast. Obama +12.1, white-hispanic-black 87-6-6.

PA-09: Susquehanna. McCain +9.1, 91% white.

PA-10: Harrisburg and half of Lancaster. McCain +3.5, white-hispanic-black 80-6-11.

PA-11: York and Gettysburg. McCain +15.1, white-hispanic-black 87-6-6.

PA-12: Susquehanna opposite Harrisburg and the Hills. McCain +23.9, 91% white.

PA-13: North Central PA. McCain +9.2, 94% white. Includes State College.

PA-14: Southwest PA and small cities eastward. McCain +13.4, 95% white.

PA-15: Westmoreland out to Indiana. McCain +13, 94% white.

PA-16: Ohio and Washington. McCain +8.2, 93% white.

PA-17: Pittsburgh. Obama +31.2 (65-34), white-black 74-21.

PA-18: Ohio out to Allegheny. McCain +15.3, 94% white.

PA-19: Northwest. Obama +3.3, white-black 91-6.

10D-9R

[bagelman]

South Carolina

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dc774331-82b1-4fde-a4c8-1f582cc165c5



There are 3 Democrats and 5 Republicans in South Carolina. Some black activists feel that this map isn't good enough as SC-5, highest black share, is only 41%. However redrawing the map would probably draw out one of the coastal Democrats and make SC-3 safer for the GOP. It would also make the map look less attractive. I can do so if someone requests or someone can do so themselves.

[bagelman]

South Dakota

https://davesredistricting.org/join/29b141a9-56d1-4d85-8d2d-3d50fb7c22ca



The eastern of the two districts almost voted Democrat during a Republican victory. This is good for Democrats in SD, but not great.

[bagelman]

Tennessee



There are 2 Democrats and 9 Republicans. TN-11 is majority black. TN-8 is the only semi-competitive district and is a quarter black.

[bagelman]

Texas

Texas is a state. There are people in Texas. Ask them what state they are from, and most will say Texas, however many are out of state travelers or liars.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/673dd056-99e7-486d-a8cf-50f6ac7bb500







Notes:

The 6th and 27th are plurality hispanic but still fairly red. The 8th is minority majority but still Safe R.

The 7th is almost majority hispanic for downtown Houston.

The 10th, 21st, and 25th remain GOP for now but are clearly competitive down the road.

The 11th is almost equal between Hispanic, White, and Black for downtown Dallas. The 12th is purple but currently Democrat, 17 is quite similar if a little more secure.

Finally the 31st and 32nd districts are both 80-85% hispanic and both safe D.

Overall 7 Democrats and 25 Republicans for now.

[bagelman]

Utah has one Democrat and 3 Republicans.

[bagelman]

Virginia

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a26dac07-92fe-4aab-965d-aa208b9c6f01



Virginia has 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans. Only one Democrat is from a competitive seat (the 9th), while the GOP won the 3 other competitive seats (4 5 12). The 8th is the only minority majority seat at 49.9% NH white.