MO-Remington: Trump +8 (user search)
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  MO-Remington: Trump +8 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO-Remington: Trump +8  (Read 1526 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


« on: September 19, 2020, 09:17:03 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2020, 08:31:56 AM
Yikes. R pollster and Trump only up 8 in *Missouri*

This R pollster has a D+1.2 bias according to 538. Still, this is an extremely poor showing for Trump, as candidates rarely underperform their % in polls and Biden’s at 45% already. I expect Trump to win this state by 9-10% in the end.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2020, 09:28:45 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on September 19, 2020, 09:19:00 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on September 19, 2020, 09:17:03 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2020, 08:31:56 AM
Yikes. R pollster and Trump only up 8 in *Missouri*

This R pollster has a D+1.2 bias according to 538. Still, this is an extremely poor showing for Trump, as candidates rarely underperform their % in polls and Biden’s at 45% already. I expect Trump to win this state by 9-10% in the end.

I went back and checked the 2016 Missouri averages and Clinton consistently polled in the mid-to-high 30s, and Remington's poll right before the election was Trump +12 with Clinton at 39.

So... the poll overestimated Clinton’s %? Interesting, and Remington did so in 2018 as well (had McC at 47%). MO polling must be really bad then. Still, this doesn’t change my prediction. Polling at mid 40s is still very good for Biden. I just wonder why Trump is leading by double digits in Indiana while tanking in Missouri.
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