MO-Remington: Trump +8
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  MO-Remington: Trump +8
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Author Topic: MO-Remington: Trump +8  (Read 1403 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: September 19, 2020, 08:27:16 AM »

Remington Research/Missouri Scout, Sep. 16-17, 1046 LV

Trump 53
Biden 45
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2020, 08:31:56 AM »

Yikes. R pollster and Trump only up 8 in *Missouri*
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2020, 08:37:31 AM »

Bidenís at 45.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2020, 08:45:37 AM »

This is what I would expect for MO this year.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2020, 09:13:27 AM »

If Missouri does end up being this close then are WI, MI, or PA even competitive? For Biden to reach 45% (or within the margin of error) in this state, then he'd have to be eating into Trump's margin with white voters by well over 10%.
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VAR
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2020, 09:17:03 AM »

Yikes. R pollster and Trump only up 8 in *Missouri*

This R pollster has a D+1.2 bias according to 538. Still, this is an extremely poor showing for Trump, as candidates rarely underperform their % in polls and Bidenís at 45% already. I expect Trump to win this state by 9-10% in the end.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2020, 09:19:00 AM »

Yikes. R pollster and Trump only up 8 in *Missouri*

This R pollster has a D+1.2 bias according to 538. Still, this is an extremely poor showing for Trump, as candidates rarely underperform their % in polls and Bidenís at 45% already. I expect Trump to win this state by 9-10% in the end.

I went back and checked the 2016 Missouri averages and Clinton consistently polled in the mid-to-high 30s, and Remington's poll right before the election was Trump +12 with Clinton at 39.
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2020, 09:28:45 AM »

Yikes. R pollster and Trump only up 8 in *Missouri*

This R pollster has a D+1.2 bias according to 538. Still, this is an extremely poor showing for Trump, as candidates rarely underperform their % in polls and Bidenís at 45% already. I expect Trump to win this state by 9-10% in the end.

I went back and checked the 2016 Missouri averages and Clinton consistently polled in the mid-to-high 30s, and Remington's poll right before the election was Trump +12 with Clinton at 39.

So... the poll overestimated Clintonís %? Interesting, and Remington did so in 2018 as well (had McC at 47%). MO polling must be really bad then. Still, this doesnít change my prediction. Polling at mid 40s is still very good for Biden. I just wonder why Trump is leading by double digits in Indiana while tanking in Missouri.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2020, 09:29:30 AM »

Weak.
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Georgia Democrat in 2023
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2020, 09:32:07 AM »

I believe that the move to Biden is more from seniors that voted Obama 2008 (and subsequently moved Republican in 2012 and 2016).  They are dissatisfied with the Trump performance on COVID-19 and more receptive to Biden.    

It won't be enough in MO, but it's an indicator on how the Rust Belt and Midwest will respond--good swings to the Democrats in November.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2020, 09:42:02 AM »

MoE 3%
Changes with June 10-11 poll

Trump 53% (+2)
Biden 45% (+2)
Undecided 2% (-4)
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2020, 10:01:32 AM »

Exactly as Iíve been predicting for months now Smiley
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2020, 10:16:36 AM »

If this is true, then Biden appears as if he will lose Missouri by about the same margin (or perhaps 1-2% more) that Claire McCaskill lost by in 2018. And such a swing in Missouri, which went to Trump by 19% last time, portends poorly for Trump's chances in the much more competitive states of the Upper Midwest.
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kireev
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2020, 11:24:14 AM »

Biden is leading among independents by 11 points. Trump won them by 33 points in 2016 according the CNN exit poll. So it's a 44 point swing Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2020, 11:44:38 AM »

I believe that the move to Biden is more from seniors that voted Obama 2008 (and subsequently moved Republican in 2012 and 2016).  They are dissatisfied with the Trump performance on COVID-19 and more receptive to Biden.    

It won't be enough in MO, but it's an indicator on how the Rust Belt and Midwest will respond--good swings to the Democrats in November.

Missouri went R because of the Religious Right, and southern Missouri is still Mountain South. Its one significant minority, blacks, is not growing. St. Louis is basically "Detroit on the Mississippi". If St,. Louis suburbs are going D then they do so by taking in former residents of St. Louis.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2020, 01:34:41 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2020, 09:13:20 PM by pbrower2a »

Closer to 2012 than to 2008, but still... bad news for Trump in the context of states that he won by large margins in 2016 becoming close without an overall reduction of interstate polarization. (The latter would be very good news for America because such would indicate that regional differences in voting be abating).  

Splits of Missouri by region of the USA split commercial and broadcasting markets in Missouri.

By DMA (probably shared TV markets):

Columbia-Jefferson City Trump 53, Biden 45 (Middle America/Mountain South)
Cape Girardeau-Poplar Bluff Trump 65  Biden 30 (Mountain South/Deep South)
Kansas City-St. Joseph  Trump 53 Biden 44 (Middle America)
Springfield-Joplin Trump  66 Biden 34 (Mountain South)
St. Louis-Hannibal Trump 45 Biden 53 (Rust Belt/Middle America/Mountain South)

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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2020, 01:58:07 PM »

By the way, Chris Koster outperformed Clinton's percentage by 7.6 and outperformed her margin by 13.9.

If this poll is accurate, then if Galloway can get even half of that, she's pretty close to winning. She actually won a majority in 2018 (50.4%), so it's very possible. Populist Galloway brings back rural voters!

I don't believe the Parson +13 or +15 polls. There's no way he's outperforming Trump. Not a chance.


Really is a shame that Greitens resigned. He would have lost for sure.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2020, 04:34:07 PM »

By the way, Chris Koster outperformed Clinton's percentage by 7.6 and outperformed her margin by 13.9.

If this poll is accurate, then if Galloway can get even half of that, she's pretty close to winning. She actually won a majority in 2018 (50.4%), so it's very possible. Populist Galloway brings back rural voters!

I don't believe the Parson +13 or +15 polls. There's no way he's outperforming Trump. Not a chance.


Really is a shame that Greitens resigned. He would have lost for sure.

Also, as you posted elsewhere with results like this, there is a good chance that the 3rd largest City in Missouri (Springfield) flips in 2020 for US-PRES.

Obviously DEMs aren't just gaining / swinging hard in the 'Burbs of Metro KC & St. Louis, but must also be gaining / swinging votes within other Pop Centers, as well as gains even in the "rurals".
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