I Seriously Do Not Get It

[anthonyjg]

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.

[anthonyjg]

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.

I completely agree with this, the democratic base and other left wing people I've talked with tonight are all freaking out horribly I don't see how that level of anger, fear and terror in the opposition towards the incumbent is going to help the incumbent regain lost ground.

Yes, exactly. It's anecdotal, but I have gone from a jaded Hawkins supporter in early March to donating money to Gideon, Greenfield, and Kelly a few hours ago. I know demographically I'm also not really a voter Biden needs, but again, the early data out of ActBlue shows just ridiculous levels of mobilization.
On its face, I get the worry, but this is fundamentally different from Kavanaugh (which also still resulted in a Democratic House). Kavanaugh and his hearings were perceived as an attack on the white male identity culture that Trump crushes it with. RBG and whoever McConnell will try to ram in there is an attack on any self-identified Democrat anywhere.

[anthonyjg]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" doesn't answer my question

In a sense, yes, electorally I think waiting makes the most sense. But when there is an opportunity to take the courts for a generation, maybe McConnell and company will be willing to take a few big hits.

[anthonyjg]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" doesn't answer my question

In a sense, yes, electorally I think waiting makes the most sense. But when there is an opportunity to take the courts for a generation, maybe McConnell and company will be willing to take a few big hits.

It's probable, but I do think that a lot of these Senators realize that the more they make a mockery of the law, the more they drive the Democratic Party to extremes. They must recognize that there is a very real possibility that if they hijack a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, then even the most moderate of Democrats will be on board for dramatically reworking SCOTUS.

Yes, that along with statehood for Puerto Rico and DC. I do hope you are right, and with such a narrow margin in the Senate just a couple who fear that could do the trick, but I am skeptical.