I Seriously Do Not Get It
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Author Topic: I Seriously Do Not Get It  (Read 5240 times)
swf541
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« on: September 19, 2020, 12:11:13 AM »

So can someone pls explain to me while any of this helps trump (with RBG's death?)

It doesnt change any of the fundamentals of the race, there is not a large pool of undecided voters for this to sway to one side of the other, the race has been static.

If your already voting for Trump obv this doesnt change anything, if you were already voting for Biden I'd imagine you'd already be resigned to the fact that he would be the one to picking a supreme court vacancy under his term, who does this actually swing?

The Trump base is already energized and dems are already energized in opposition to Trump.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2020, 12:13:22 AM »

So can someone pls explain to me while any of this helps trump (with RBG's death?)

Because the media wants a horse race.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2020, 12:14:04 AM »

It probably doesn’t help Trump’s election odds. Only way I could see it maybe helping a little is if they leave the seat open until after the election and use that to drive up turnout among the base. If they fill it now, that will just anger Democrats and drive up their turnout instead. Might be a wash anyway even if they leave it open.
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Horus
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2020, 12:14:21 AM »

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2020, 12:15:48 AM »

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.
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WD
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2020, 12:16:05 AM »

It doesn’t. Just more concern trolling and bed wetting from the usual suspects. After Kavanaugh’s confirmation Democrats picked up 40 House seats and overperformed Clinton by double digits in several Red States. 2018 was a great year for Democrats (Nelson’s incompetence notwithstanding).
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2020, 12:16:51 AM »

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Twitter is not real life. Most of those are either bots, Trump supporting concern trolls, not Americans (Russians), or were never voting Biden anyway.

Is this why you have been so convinced Trump will win Minnesota and everything all this time? Yikes.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2020, 12:17:34 AM »

It will likely make for a less hostile Supreme Court when he tries to steal the election/illegally hold on to power.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2020, 12:17:47 AM »

I'm waiting for some actual polling before I declare that it helped Trump, but the biggest dynamic I think could be at play is any of the "traditional" Republicans who were willing to go over to Biden, but now might decide to "come home" for the sake of a SCOTUS seat. I really doubt that will be enough people to actually swing the election, but it might be a decent chunk of at least Biden's crossover Republican support.
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swf541
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2020, 12:17:51 AM »

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Yes bcs twitter is a perfect microcasm of the American electorate just look at presidential nominee Sanders.....

The distraction for the coronavirus is relevant, but to some extent that story cant be entirely brushed off as more people are going to die from it, you can't gloss over 200k dead Americans, nor will voters forget people they know dying.....

I really dont see how this is a winning issue for Trump, he's going to what? Pick a fairly at least right wing judge to replace them which isn't going to win over any moderates, and will motivate some on the left to vote imo.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2020, 12:18:24 AM »

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

If anything, isn't it the exact opposite?  If Ginsburg has not died, the winner of this election would have definitely appointed her replacement.  But now, Trump might be able to do it whether Biden wins or not.
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2020, 12:18:48 AM »

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Twitter is not real life. Most of those are either bots, Trump supporting concern trolls, not Americans (Russians), or were never voting Biden anyway.

Is this why you have been so convinced Trump will win Minnesota and everything all this time? Yikes.

I've only had a twitter for three months.
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swf541
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2020, 12:19:23 AM »

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

If anything, isn't it the exact opposite?  If Ginsburg has not died, the winner of this election would have definitely appointed her replacement.  But now, Trump might be able to do it whether Biden wins or not.

This is my take on it and if the court was your issue you were already voting for Trump.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2020, 12:19:28 AM »

Some people think everything will help Trump. It will not help him, especially if a justice is forced through with no hearings or vetting.
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swf541
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2020, 12:19:43 AM »

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Twitter is not real life. Most of those are either bots, Trump supporting concern trolls, not Americans (Russians), or were never voting Biden anyway.

Is this why you have been so convinced Trump will win Minnesota and everything all this time? Yikes.

I've only had a twitter for three months.

That isnt a point
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2020, 12:19:47 AM »

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.
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swf541
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2020, 12:20:36 AM »

Some people think everything will help Trump. It will not help him, especially if a justice is forced through with no hearings or vetting.

Yea this makes sense to me.  Im just always baffled by the "X ISSUE WILL HELP TRUMP" bits people always fall into, and this one just feels the most bizzare.

Its not like a right wing justice died and could be replaced by Biden.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2020, 12:20:45 AM »

Amnesty and Obamacare, if Trump is reelected will be more conservative. AA are friends with blue collar counterpart, Latinos, but like Arabs, they jobs away from AA. As far as Obamacare, it was a socialist idea from the Unions. Unions didn't advocate a Federal Jobs guarentee that Obama didnt want to get rid of patronage hiring

That's why Obama, like Climton kept losing seats in Congress, white collar jobs was reserved for privileged. Bill Clinton advised Obama not to do it, even under 60 votes
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2020, 12:21:30 AM »

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

This. It will further polarize the race. Even if it's indirect, it's going to inspire increased engagement from the right just how the Kavanaugh hearings did in 2018.
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swf541
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2020, 12:22:13 AM »

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.

I completely agree with this, the democratic base and other left wing people I've talked with tonight are all freaking out horribly I don't see how that level of anger, fear and terror in the opposition towards the incumbent is going to help the incumbent regain lost ground.
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Sheliak5
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2020, 12:24:43 AM »

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Twitter is not real life. Most of those are either bots, Trump supporting concern trolls, not Americans (Russians), or were never voting Biden anyway.

Is this why you have been so convinced Trump will win Minnesota and everything all this time? Yikes.

I've only had a twitter for three months.

That isnt a point

He was implying that I have my views about Minnesota because of twitter, but I've thought for years that MN and the upper midwest in general will have a more GOP youth vote. This is because of the increasing education gap, the children of blue dog and Reagan democrats in places like the iron range and Superior Wisconsin are gonna be GOP unless they went to college.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2020, 12:25:40 AM »

It will help Trump to where it will crystallize certain things.  It will, for example, cause certain social conservatives who think Trump unappealing on a personal level to focus on what is at stake.  It will certainly bring all of the reluctant Trumpers in religious circles to remain in the fold and vote for Trump.  

It will certainly help energize Biden's base.  I don't know how many votes that will add, but the SCOTUS appointment is no longer a hypothetical, and that will mean a great deal to liberals of all stripes who view the SCOTUS as critical.

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swf541
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« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2020, 12:28:07 AM »

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

This. It will further polarize the race. Even if it's indirect, it's going to inspire increased engagement from the right just how the Kavanaugh hearings did in 2018.

The more I've thought about the Kavanuagh situation I actually think that didnt move the polls as much in the end as people believe (lets not forget where dems were defending in 18 was much more red then the 2020 senate map for the most part) and that it was more of a pushback against the me too movement more so then actually being about the specific court nomination.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2020, 12:28:43 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2020, 12:31:48 AM by Fmr. Gov. NickG »

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

This. It will further polarize the race. Even if it's indirect, it's going to inspire increased engagement from the right just how the Kavanaugh hearings did in 2018.

If you're arguing "it will be just like 2018", maybe we are in agreement.
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VBM
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2020, 12:29:24 AM »

I'm waiting for some actual polling before I declare that it helped Trump, but the biggest dynamic I think could be at play is any of the "traditional" Republicans who were willing to go over to Biden, but now might decide to "come home" for the sake of a SCOTUS seat. I really doubt that will be enough people to actually swing the election, but it might be a decent chunk of at least Biden's crossover Republican support.
Almost everyone knew that RBG was would not make it past 2024, so whoever won the election would be filling her seat, if she didn’t die before the 2020 election. Anyone changing their vote because of this is somehow too low-info to realize that RBG would die soon, but somehow high-info enough to care about the Supreme Court
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