I Seriously Do Not Get It

[swf541]

So can someone pls explain to me while any of this helps trump (with RBG's death?)

It doesnt change any of the fundamentals of the race, there is not a large pool of undecided voters for this to sway to one side of the other, the race has been static.

If your already voting for Trump obv this doesnt change anything, if you were already voting for Biden I'd imagine you'd already be resigned to the fact that he would be the one to picking a supreme court vacancy under his term, who does this actually swing?

The Trump base is already energized and dems are already energized in opposition to Trump.

[swf541]

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Yes bcs twitter is a perfect microcasm of the American electorate just look at presidential nominee Sanders.....

The distraction for the coronavirus is relevant, but to some extent that story cant be entirely brushed off as more people are going to die from it, you can't gloss over 200k dead Americans, nor will voters forget people they know dying.....

I really dont see how this is a winning issue for Trump, he's going to what? Pick a fairly at least right wing judge to replace them which isn't going to win over any moderates, and will motivate some on the left to vote imo.

[swf541]

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

If anything, isn't it the exact opposite?  If Ginsburg has not died, the winner of this election would have definitely appointed her replacement.  But now, Trump might be able to do it whether Biden wins or not.

This is my take on it and if the court was your issue you were already voting for Trump.

[swf541]

First and foremost, RBG's death takes focus off of coronavirus, which has been an absolute disaster for this administration.

Also, there are already comments all over twitter and IG on otherwise left leaning pages about how compassionate Trump sounded when informed of her death a few hours ago. Can't hurt him. Plus, he now has the chance to win over undecided women or non white voters with the right replacement.

Twitter is not real life. Most of those are either bots, Trump supporting concern trolls, not Americans (Russians), or were never voting Biden anyway.

Is this why you have been so convinced Trump will win Minnesota and everything all this time? Yikes.

I've only had a twitter for three months.

That isnt a point

[swf541]

Some people think everything will help Trump. It will not help him, especially if a justice is forced through with no hearings or vetting.

Yea this makes sense to me.  Im just always baffled by the "X ISSUE WILL HELP TRUMP" bits people always fall into, and this one just feels the most bizzare.

Its not like a right wing justice died and could be replaced by Biden.

[swf541]

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.

I completely agree with this, the democratic base and other left wing people I've talked with tonight are all freaking out horribly I don't see how that level of anger, fear and terror in the opposition towards the incumbent is going to help the incumbent regain lost ground.

[swf541]

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

This. It will further polarize the race. Even if it's indirect, it's going to inspire increased engagement from the right just how the Kavanaugh hearings did in 2018.

The more I've thought about the Kavanuagh situation I actually think that didnt move the polls as much in the end as people believe (lets not forget where dems were defending in 18 was much more red then the 2020 senate map for the most part) and that it was more of a pushback against the me too movement more so then actually being about the specific court nomination.

[swf541]

Yeah, I don't think it helps Trump, especially if they get a nominee through. It will energize Democrats, but Republicans will be satisfied and may not see that much of an urgency to turn out. Especially conservatives who don't like Trump as person, but would hold their nose and vote for him for that very reason.

It would actually help Republicans more to wait and declare the election a referendum on the court. Democrats will be energized no matter what, so I think they have more to gain (and lose) here.

Yea this would make a lot more sense for the GOP to do imo, but they dont seem to be going in that direction.