I Seriously Do Not Get It

[woodley park]

It probably doesn’t help Trump’s election odds. Only way I could see it maybe helping a little is if they leave the seat open until after the election and use that to drive up turnout among the base. If they fill it now, that will just anger Democrats and drive up their turnout instead. Might be a wash anyway even if they leave it open.

This is exactly what they’ll do.  It’s a gamble, but it’s one with a high chance of reward.

If they fill the seat NOW they lose it as an election issue.  Or it backfires on them and riles up Biden voters.  There’s no third option.

If they wait until after the election, it riles up Trump’s base and they will turn out.  Liberals will turn out too, but there’ll still be a portion of them who’ll be angry about Bernie losing or whatever and not vote for Biden.

I still think turnout amongst the base is already about maxed out though. Trump has been selling 2020 as another “Flight 93” election for the GOP, so if they were already amped up by an “existential” threat, what more do they really have to gain from this happening? This seat is also a bonus for them; they have a majority now regardless of this seat.

Meanwhile, facing a crushing minority in the Supreme Court that could last decades, 2020 now has become a do or die election for the Democratic Party — so I expect this to spur the base and Democrat leaning non voters and indies to action. No point in wasting your vote on Howie Hawkins now.

Plus, for all the talk of soft GOP’ers on the fence about Trump who may come home... I personally know many conservative-leaning suburban women (McCain, Romney Republicans) who are pro-choice and won’t take kindly to the idea of a deeply conservative Supreme Court revisiting social issues like abortion. While that is anecdotal, I don’t like assuming this suddenly gives Trump a slam dunk to win back his soft conservatives.

Also, for months the Senate GOP has done NOTHING to help people who are hurting physically and economically from the fallout of COVID-19, and suddenly they are going to try and rush through a Supreme Court nomination? What kind of message does that send to regular folks who are desperate for help but see Washington just focused on its usual power plays? Not a great look for GOP Senators and Trump..

[wbrocks67]

Some people think everything will help Trump. It will not help him, especially if a justice is forced through with no hearings or vetting.

This. It doesn't matter what the situation is, honestly. For some reason, every pundit or outlet or whoever thinks that every situation that happens somehow helps Trump. I don't understand why that that is *always* the CW but it is.

[KaiserDave]

It won’t help trump

People are just crazy

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some people think everything will help Trump. It will not help him, especially if a justice is forced through with no hearings or vetting.

This. It doesn't matter what the situation is, honestly. For some reason, every pundit or outlet or whoever thinks that every situation that happens somehow helps Trump. I don't understand why that that is *always* the CW but it is.

2016 was filled with predictions of ultimately incosequential Trump gaffes/statements meaning his doom. He was also seen as a massive underdog for election.

Because they had miscalculated as to what would be effective and associated this with their general underestimation of his chances, many pundits now assume that things which had a neutral or minor effect were helping him the whole time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Some people think everything will help Trump. It will not help him, especially if a justice is forced through with no hearings or vetting.

This. It doesn't matter what the situation is, honestly. For some reason, every pundit or outlet or whoever thinks that every situation that happens somehow helps Trump. I don't understand why that that is *always* the CW but it is.

Lol remember when Cook Political report tried to argue that high unemployment in NV, and the state being heavily impacted by COVID overall somehow hurts Biden so they moved it to lean D. They're desperate to create a horse-race, because it helps give them attention and therefore make money

[Arkansas Yankee]

At least I know it gives all of you heartburn that he has a chance to fill the seat.

[CellarDoor]

In my view this won't help Trump, for a multitude of reasons. The latest of which are reports that the Biden team is going to sidestep the abortion debate and make the Supreme Court vacancy about health care.  Don't forget there's a case scheduled to go before the court about preexisting conditions. Framing the vacancy around this issue will energize liberals and independents without alienating conservatives.  It will also remind everyone, including conservatives that the Trump administration is trying to take health care away from millions of people.  The administration's position is indefensible but the odds of them winning in court go up if Trump appoints a judge.

[Bomster]

In my view this won't help Trump, for a multitude of reasons. The latest of which are reports that the Biden team is going to sidestep the abortion debate and make the Supreme Court vacancy about health care.  Don't forget there's a case scheduled to go before the court about preexisting conditions. Framing the vacancy around this issue will energize liberals and independents without alienating conservatives.  It will also remind everyone, including conservatives that the Trump administration is trying to take health care away from millions of people.  The administration's position is indefensible but the odds of them winning in court go up if Trump appoints a judge.

Damn this would be really smart of Biden I hope he does this.

[Splash]

In my view this won't help Trump, for a multitude of reasons. The latest of which are reports that the Biden team is going to sidestep the abortion debate and make the Supreme Court vacancy about health care.  Don't forget there's a case scheduled to go before the court about preexisting conditions. Framing the vacancy around this issue will energize liberals and independents without alienating conservatives.  It will also remind everyone, including conservatives that the Trump administration is trying to take health care away from millions of people.  The administration's position is indefensible but the odds of them winning in court go up if Trump appoints a judge.

Damn this would be really smart of Biden I hope he does this.

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1307380890994122752

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755685120282625

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755685120282625

Seems about what I expected. I felt that most (between 55-70%) would favor the seat being filled by the election winner, as at least a somewhat large percentage of republicans recognize how hypocritical the opposite position is following what occurred following Scalia's death in 2016.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755685120282625

DusaSter! Election ivaahhh

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1307741484846907392?s=19

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar polls are measuring Likeky voters and other pollsters are still going with RV, making it seem that Trump is gonna lose 413 map and this was always the case. That's why MSN puts up the map on how many cases TX and FL has.

The fact remains is that Trump has a 47 percent approval rating not a 39 percent rating and a close election 291-247 and a 51/49 Senate is probable

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755685120282625

Huh. So not only does the American public support the next president picking the nominee, but more people will vote Biden bc of this.

Once again, the pundits who think everything helps Trump every single time, are proven wrong.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1307755685120282625

This is a turnaround from 2016......
Probably because
"ORANGE MAN BAD!"
Inb4 Blue avatar says this is an example of Trump Derangement Syndrome

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ginsberg was already having health issues and before 2016, even in an R Senate, liberals told her to retire. She didn't do what she was supposed to do; consequently, giving Anthony Kennedy the opening the opportunity to give Trump a 5th Conservative Judge. 

RBG and Roberts werent the swing vote, Kennedy hid his friendship with the Trumps' very well and did what they wanted, for a generation of a Supermajority Senate.

Biden also, sent to the floor Clarence Thomas nomination, in Dem majority panel on the Judiciary, Clarence Thomas didn't have the votes, but Alan Dixon, whom was defeated by Carol Mosley Braun was the culprit to getting Thomas the vacany

[NHI]

So can someone pls explain to me while any of this helps trump (with RBG's death?)

Because the media wants a horse race.

[Person Man]

Ginsberg was already having health issues and before 2016, even in an R Senate, liberals told her to retire. She didn't do what she was supposed to do; consequently, giving Anthony Kennedy the opening the opportunity to give Trump a 5th Conservative Judge. 

RBG and Roberts werent the swing vote, Kennedy hid his friendship with the Trumps' very well and did what they wanted, for a generation of a Supermajority Senate.

Biden also, sent to the floor Clarence Thomas nomination, in Dem majority panel on the Judiciary, Clarence Thomas didn't have the votes, but Alan Dixon, whom was defeated by Carol Mosley Braun was the culprit to getting Thomas the vacany

This just sounds weird and overly complicated. Why would Kennedy want to do this then to just be that conservative in the past? And he trusts Trump to pick his replacement because they sit in the same bong circle or something?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Ginsberg was already having health issues and before 2016, even in an R Senate, liberals told her to retire. She didn't do what she was supposed to do; consequently, giving Anthony Kennedy the opening the opportunity to give Trump a 5th Conservative Judge. 

RBG and Roberts werent the swing vote, Kennedy hid his friendship with the Trumps' very well and did what they wanted, for a generation of a Supermajority Senate.

Biden also, sent to the floor Clarence Thomas nomination, in Dem majority panel on the Judiciary, Clarence Thomas didn't have the votes, but Alan Dixon, whom was defeated by Carol Mosley Braun was the culprit to getting Thomas the vacany

This just sounds weird and overly complicated. Why would Kennedy want to do this then to just be that conservative in the past? And he trusts Trump to pick his replacement because they sit in the same bong circle or something?

I assume he's referring to this: Anthony Kennedy's Son Gave Donald Trump $1 Billion in Loans at Deutsche Bank

But they had a connection, one Mr. Trump was quick to note in the moments after his first address to Congress in February 2017. As he made his way out of the chamber, Mr. Trump paused to chat with the justice.

“Say hello to your boy,” Mr. Trump said. “Special guy.”

Mr. Trump was apparently referring to Justice Kennedy’s son, Justin. The younger Mr. Kennedy spent more than a decade at Deutsche Bank, eventually rising to become the bank’s global head of real estate capital markets, and he worked closely with Mr. Trump when he was a real estate developer, according to two people with knowledge of his role.

During Mr. Kennedy’s tenure, Deutsche Bank became Mr. Trump’s most important lender, dispensing well over $1 billion in loans to him for the renovation and construction of skyscrapers in New York and Chicago at a time other mainstream banks were wary of doing business with him because of his troubled business history.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The one problem for you Democrat’s and pollsters in determining who will actually vote.  Will everyone who says they will vote Biden actually vote for someone they know deep down never actually be a functioning President. Is hate all you have to really go on to motivate?

Further problems may develop based on who Trump appoints..

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The one problem for you Democrat’s and pollsters in determining who will actually vote.  Will everyone who says they will vote Biden actually vote for someone they know deep down never actually be a functioning President.

Even if what you think about Biden were true, why do you assume Democrats would do like the Republicans did in 2016 and support a malfunctioning President?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1308909088894521344

And yet I still have to read a half-dozen POLITICO articles a day describing how this is a windfall for republicans.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1308909088894521344

And yet I still have to read a half-dozen POLITICO articles a day describing how this is a windfall for republicans.

And that's a GOP internal. Trump and Senate Republicans are treading on dangerous waters.

[freepcrusher]

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

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