I Seriously Do Not Get It

[anthonyjg]

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.

I completely agree with this, the democratic base and other left wing people I've talked with tonight are all freaking out horribly I don't see how that level of anger, fear and terror in the opposition towards the incumbent is going to help the incumbent regain lost ground.

Yes, exactly. It's anecdotal, but I have gone from a jaded Hawkins supporter in early March to donating money to Gideon, Greenfield, and Kelly a few hours ago. I know demographically I'm also not really a voter Biden needs, but again, the early data out of ActBlue shows just ridiculous levels of mobilization.
On its face, I get the worry, but this is fundamentally different from Kavanaugh (which also still resulted in a Democratic House). Kavanaugh and his hearings were perceived as an attack on the white male identity culture that Trump crushes it with. RBG and whoever McConnell will try to ram in there is an attack on any self-identified Democrat anywhere.

[DrScholl]

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

It's hard to believe that anyone who was that worried about the court from a Republican perspective would be voting for Biden in the first place or even consider staying home. Trump's turnout is maxed out already.

[Adam Griffin]

Republicans who might have stayed home or voted for Biden now have an opportunity to have a 6-3 Supreme Court for 40 years.

This. It will further polarize the race. Even if it's indirect, it's going to inspire increased engagement from the right just how the Kavanaugh hearings did in 2018.

If your arguing "it will be just like 2018", maybe we are in agreement.

I'm mainly arguing that if Biden's current lead is in any way, shape or form based on him enjoying above-average conservative-leaning support and/or Trump is suffering from unequal enthusiasm, then the race will tighten. And obviously since such situations play out in the Senate, it'll have an impact there, too.

[Non Swing Voter]

It helps because it takes the attention off coronavirus, period. 

It does not help by driving up anti-abortion activists.  They already vote.  They are in a minority in states that are over 270 electoral votes.  2018 was right after Kavanaugh and it did not help the GOP in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, or Pennsylvania.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Agreed. And honestly I look at it in the opposite direction, I think this borderline clinched it for Biden. Anger and fear are much, much more powerful motivators than any excitement evangelicals may have at filling RBG’s seat, just look at Democratic fundraising numbers tonight.

I completely agree with this, the democratic base and other left wing people I've talked with tonight are all freaking out horribly I don't see how that level of anger, fear and terror in the opposition towards the incumbent is going to help the incumbent regain lost ground.

If Trump weren't Trump, nominating Merrick Garland to the seat and publicly saying McConnell was wrong might actually help his numbers.

[Woody]

Energize the base.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kavanaugh hearings helped Republicans in Senate races.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So can someone pls explain to me while any of this helps trump (with RBG's death?)

Because the media green avatars & doomers want a horse race.

[Pericles]

Energize the base.

Trump has been doing that constantly, it doesn't make sense for this to change things in a big way.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And don't give me "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" because that's not what I'm asking

[Hammy]

Kavanaugh hearings helped Republicans in Senate races.

This is one of the worst takes in this thread. What helped the GOP was that Dems won where they wouldn't normally in 2012.

[anthonyjg]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" doesn't answer my question

In a sense, yes, electorally I think waiting makes the most sense. But when there is an opportunity to take the courts for a generation, maybe McConnell and company will be willing to take a few big hits.

[Ferguson97]

Kavanaugh hearings helped Republicans in Senate races.

This is one of the worst takes in this thread. What helped the GOP was that Dems won where they wouldn't normally in 2012.

Yeah, 2018 was just a uniquely bad map for the Democrats.

[DaleCooper]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" doesn't answer my question

In a sense, yes, electorally I think waiting makes the most sense. But when there is an opportunity to take the courts for a generation, maybe McConnell and company will be willing to take a few big hits.

It's probable, but I do think that a lot of these Senators realize that the more they make a mockery of the law, the more they drive the Democratic Party to extremes. They must recognize that there is a very real possibility that if they hijack a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, then even the most moderate of Democrats will be on board for dramatically reworking SCOTUS.

[R.P. McM]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" doesn't answer my question

In a sense, yes, electorally I think waiting makes the most sense. But when there is an opportunity to take the courts for a generation, maybe McConnell and company will be willing to take a few big hits.

A dying generation that's absolutely **** the bed on the way out. No need to respect their odious opinions. The Court needs to be packed, and it will be!

[Bootes Void]

There always people who always argue everything helps Trump

[anthonyjg]

Also, wouldn't it be in the GOPs best interest to hold off the vacancy until after the election (at the earliest)?

If Republicans hold off until January, increased turnout among both parties could cancel out over who picks RBGs replacement.

If Republicans confirm a nominee by next month, maxed out turnout among angry Democrats and the GOP lose the biggest carrot they could dangle for on-the-fence Moderates (If Moderates care about nominating conservative judges). And what would Republicans turn out for at that point?

And "they'll squeeze a nominee through regardless" doesn't answer my question

In a sense, yes, electorally I think waiting makes the most sense. But when there is an opportunity to take the courts for a generation, maybe McConnell and company will be willing to take a few big hits.

It's probable, but I do think that a lot of these Senators realize that the more they make a mockery of the law, the more they drive the Democratic Party to extremes. They must recognize that there is a very real possibility that if they hijack a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, then even the most moderate of Democrats will be on board for dramatically reworking SCOTUS.

Yes, that along with statehood for Puerto Rico and DC. I do hope you are right, and with such a narrow margin in the Senate just a couple who fear that could do the trick, but I am skeptical.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm waiting for some actual polling before I declare that it helped Trump, but the biggest dynamic I think could be at play is any of the "traditional" Republicans who were willing to go over to Biden, but now might decide to "come home" for the sake of a SCOTUS seat. I really doubt that will be enough people to actually swing the election, but it might be a decent chunk of at least Biden's crossover Republican support.

I would add that a lot of these crossover Republicans are pretty pro-choice and broadly supportive of functional democracy so I really don't see why the court would be an issue that pushes them towards Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ginnsberg should have retired when 2014 happened, progressives told her to retire. It wont matter that much anyways as we see with the Markey renomination, campaign finance reform only goes so far with McCain and Feingold reform. Planned Parenthood was affirmed 6-3, adoptions are getting more frequent as abortions are becoming more rare, as birth rates from 1973 have gone down due to income inequality from 3.5 for average family to 1.5

As for Obamacare, as 50 M jobs left, if you are on unemployment or SSA, you qualify for Medicare or Medicaid

Just like insisting that workers get 600 and get 2400 and pat for car notes, when you are on unemployment or Social Security cars become a luxury, not a necessity.  300 plus food stamps and 1200 a mnth is the poverty line for food stamps. You arent supposed to have a car

Biden is likely to win, but with a shrunken majority a 51/50  Senate and a 291-247 map is the most likely scenario.  Setting up the possibly of GA runoffs determing majority of Senate

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If you subscribe to the theory that there are more ideologically conservative NeverTrumpers than Bernie-or-Busters then this gives them a very good reason to hold their nose and stay Republican.

Personally, I'd guess that the number of NeverTrumpers is greatly exaggerated and most of them are either concentrated in uncompetitive states or would be basically okay with Biden nominating the likes of Merrick Garland. This might improve Trump's PV margins slightly but I seriously doubt it'll actually flip any states either way.

[Beet]

Hard to tell.

The whole Kavanaugh thing blew up in the Democrats' faces because they tried to lob baseless accusations against a basically honorable man using nothing but a decades old memory with zero evidence whatsoever, smearing him and ruining his life in front of his wife and whole family. Kavanaugh represented every White man ever unfairly smeared and attacked by the Left solely for being a White man. What's more, their manner of doing it was to take the most sacred single value of our society for centuries-- the due process of law, innocence until proven guilty, which protects every single human being-- and trample it before their feet. Of course that wasn't going to end well. Anyone could have seen that.

This time, I think the Democrats can mitigate some of that damage if they don't repeat those mistakes. Instead, they could focus on the policy implications of a right wing Court-- such as ACA being struck down, and so on. Things that people might not like and might impact them directly. That might help them relative to 2018.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, I don't think it helps Trump, especially if they get a nominee through. It will energize Democrats, but Republicans will be satisfied and may not see that much of an urgency to turn out. Especially conservatives who don't like Trump as person, but would hold their nose and vote for him for that very reason.

It would actually help Republicans more to wait and declare the election a referendum on the court. Democrats will be energized no matter what, so I think they have more to gain (and lose) here.

[swf541]

Yeah, I don't think it helps Trump, especially if they get a nominee through. It will energize Democrats, but Republicans will be satisfied and may not see that much of an urgency to turn out. Especially conservatives who don't like Trump as person, but would hold their nose and vote for him for that very reason.

It would actually help Republicans more to wait and declare the election a referendum on the court. Democrats will be energized no matter what, so I think they have more to gain (and lose) here.

Yea this would make a lot more sense for the GOP to do imo, but they dont seem to be going in that direction.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Honestly, I do have the impression that some people have simply entered a mode in which any form of unexpected or surprising development (unrelated to COVID?) is automatically going to derail Biden's lead in the polls.

[Inmate Trump]

It probably doesn’t help Trump’s election odds. Only way I could see it maybe helping a little is if they leave the seat open until after the election and use that to drive up turnout among the base. If they fill it now, that will just anger Democrats and drive up their turnout instead. Might be a wash anyway even if they leave it open.

This is exactly what they’ll do.  It’s a gamble, but it’s one with a high chance of reward.

If they fill the seat NOW they lose it as an election issue.  Or it backfires on them and riles up Biden voters.  There’s no third option.

If they wait until after the election, it riles up Trump’s base and they will turn out.  Liberals will turn out too, but there’ll still be a portion of them who’ll be angry about Bernie losing or whatever and not vote for Biden.