NYTimes/Siena - Kelly+8 in AZ, Gideon+5 in ME, Golden+19 in ME-02, Cunningham+5 in NC

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

AZ
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Someone else 0%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 7%

ME
663 likely voters (with ranked choice - possibly transferring the votes of third party candidates for this topline?)
MoE: 5.1%

Max "Lind" 0%
Lisa Savage 0%
Someone else 0%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 6%

ME02
440 likely voters  (with ranked choice - possibly transferring the votes of third party candidates for this topline?)

Someone else 0%
Not voting for Congress 0%
Don't know/refused 6%

NC
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Someone else 1%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 16%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Generic Senate polls: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's elections for U.S. Senate?"

AZ
Democratic Control 50%
Republican Control 44%
Don't know/refused 6%

ME
Democratic Control 53%
Republican Control 41%
Don't know/refused 6%

NC
Republican Control 48%
Democratic Control 44%
Don't know/refused 8%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The original Maine rundown was Gideon 44, Colins 40 before RV, so Gideon actually gains a pt when RCV is done

Thanks for posting this. Here's the full details of the pre-RCV poll in ME-SEN (can't find the figures for other Maine races):

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1306901222843187200

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Generic Senate polls: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's elections for U.S. Senate?"

NC
Republican Control 48%
Democratic Control 44%
Don't know/refused 8%

Very intriguing, but it’s still just one poll.

IMO it's simultaneously a ray of hope for Tillis within the undecided figures (something we've seen in other polls) and a minor indictment of his electoral capability (the Republicans have at least a few more popular row officers who could have ran in his place).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Regional breakdown in ME:

First Congressional district:

Cumberland: Gideon +37 (64-27) -- Biden +45
Rest: Collins +3 (48-45) -- Biden +16

Second Congressional district:

Acadia/Bangor: Gideon +10 (53-43) -- Biden +19
North: Collins +20 (58-38) -- Trump +11
Southwest: Collins +5 (49-44) -- Biden +7

Obviously not a good poll for Collins, but this is yet another major underperformance by Gideon (Biden’s ahead by 17 in this poll, Gideon only by 5; plus she already underperformed him by 9 points in the Quinnipiac poll, which was Biden +21 and Gideon +12). It likely won’t matter if the top of the ticket really ends up being the Biden blowout these polls are suggesting, but it will matter if polls are understating Republican strength in ME and the race in the state tightens a little as fundamentals and trends win out. I have a hard time buying that Biden is going to replicate Obama's margin here or do even better than that (more likely it’ll be a margin in the high single digits or so).

What should be especially concerning to Collins' campaign is that in the earlier ME polls showing smaller leads for Biden (admittedly only a few of these so far), the Collins overperformance wasn't (on average) as major - at least, in terms of margin. It's very plausible that either the blowout is real but happening amongst voters who still support Collins or that the kind of moderate Republican willing to vote Biden but still support Collins is being oversampled. It's considerably less likely that the polls showing huge leads for Biden are wrong AND that the polls showing smaller leads for Biden and less crossover support for Collins are also wrong.