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October 21, 2020, 02:36:09 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  NYTimes/Siena - Kelly+8 in AZ, Gideon+5 in ME, Golden+19 in ME-02, Cunningham+5 in NC
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Author Topic: NYTimes/Siena - Kelly+8 in AZ, Gideon+5 in ME, Golden+19 in ME-02, Cunningham+5 in NC  (Read 497 times)
n1240
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« on: September 18, 2020, 04:26:16 AM »
« edited: September 18, 2020, 04:51:34 AM by n1240 »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-me-nc-0920-crosstabs/72d074246b272695/full.pdf

Arizona

Kelly 50
McSally 42

Maine

Gideon 49
Collins 44

ME-02 (House)

Golden 56
Crafts 37

NC

Cunningham 42%
Tillis 37%
Bray 2%
Hayes 1%
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2020, 04:32:42 AM »

Golden boy strikes again.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2020, 04:42:26 AM »

NC
Cunningham 42%
Tillis 37%
Bray 2%
Hayes 1%
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n1240
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2020, 04:51:41 AM »

NC
Cunningham 42%
Tillis 37%
Bray 2%
Hayes 1%


Not sure how I missed this, thanks!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2020, 05:21:38 AM »

ME-02: WOW! Golden is safe.

NC: So many undecideds, but I assume it will likely close track with the prez race. However, Cunningham has a +17 fav versus Tillis at only +1. So Cunningham likely has more upside here.

ME: Interesting that Collins favs are better here than normal (50/47), but problem for his is that Giden is more liked (55/41). Also, as many other polls have shown - Gideon is getting nearly ALL Democrats. Not much ticket splitting. That plus Gideon is winning Indies by 8, and as far as I can tell, Gideon has been winning indies is nearly every poll.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2020, 05:52:50 AM »

34% of Democrats disapprove of Susan Collinsí vote against the AHCA.
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kph14
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2020, 05:55:47 AM »

34% of Democrats disapprove of Susan Collinsí vote against the AHCA.
Those are the partisans that voted against her in 2014. Voters that disapprove the fact that Susan Collins exists
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2020, 06:03:29 AM »

Generic ballot

AZ: D 50-44
ME: D 53-41
NC: R 48-44
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2020, 06:26:45 AM »

Golden seems to be running pretty consistently ahead of Biden. You have to wonder if heís regretting not running for the six year Senate term instead. Heíd be crushing it.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2020, 06:43:21 AM »

34% of Democrats disapprove of Susan Collinsí vote against the AHCA.
Sounds like people getting their acronyms confused rather than anything else.
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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2020, 06:45:44 AM »

34% of Democrats disapprove of Susan Collinsí vote against the AHCA.
Sounds like people getting their acronyms confused rather than anything else.

No, this is how they worded the question:

Quote
Over the past two years, Susan Collins voted on many issues in the U.S. Senate. For each of the following, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the vote by Susan Collins. Her vote against the Republican bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2020, 07:37:48 AM »

AZ
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Someone else 0%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 7%

ME
663 likely voters (with ranked choice - possibly transferring the votes of third party candidates for this topline?)
MoE: 5.1%

Max "Lind" 0%
Lisa Savage 0%
Someone else 0%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 6%

ME02
440 likely voters  (with ranked choice - possibly transferring the votes of third party candidates for this topline?)

Someone else 0%
Not voting for Congress 0%
Don't know/refused 6%

NC
653 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Someone else 1%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/refused 16%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2020, 07:42:35 AM »

The original Maine rundown was Gideon 44, Colins 40 before RV, so Gideon actually gains a pt when RCV is done
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2020, 07:50:53 AM »

Generic Senate polls: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's elections for U.S. Senate?"

AZ
Democratic Control 50%
Republican Control 44%
Don't know/refused 6%

ME
Democratic Control 53%
Republican Control 41%
Don't know/refused 6%

NC
Republican Control 48%
Democratic Control 44%
Don't know/refused 8%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2020, 07:56:01 AM »

The original Maine rundown was Gideon 44, Colins 40 before RV, so Gideon actually gains a pt when RCV is done

Thanks for posting this. Here's the full details of the pre-RCV poll in ME-SEN (can't find the figures for other Maine races):

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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2020, 07:58:05 AM »

Generic Senate polls: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's elections for U.S. Senate?"

NC
Republican Control 48%
Democratic Control 44%
Don't know/refused 8%

Very intriguing, but itís still just one poll.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2020, 08:00:07 AM »

Generic Senate polls: "What is your preference for the outcome of this year's elections for U.S. Senate?"

NC
Republican Control 48%
Democratic Control 44%
Don't know/refused 8%

Very intriguing, but itís still just one poll.

IMO it's simultaneously a ray of hope for Tillis within the undecided figures (something we've seen in other polls) and a minor indictment of his electoral capability (the Republicans have at least a few more popular row officers who could have ran in his place).
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2020, 10:27:00 AM »

Damn. Biden is actually outrunning Kelly in this poll.

Donít look now, but Arizona is going the way of Virginia circa 2008.
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2020, 01:58:34 PM »

Regional breakdown in ME:

First Congressional district:

Cumberland: Gideon +37 (64-27) -- Biden +45
Rest: Collins +3 (48-45) -- Biden +16

Second Congressional district:

Acadia/Bangor: Gideon +10 (53-43) -- Biden +19
North: Collins +20 (58-38) -- Trump +11
Southwest: Collins +5 (49-44) -- Biden +7

Obviously not a good poll for Collins, but this is yet another major underperformance by Gideon (Bidenís ahead by 17 in this poll, Gideon only by 5; plus she already underperformed him by 9 points in the Quinnipiac poll, which was Biden +21 and Gideon +12). It likely wonít matter if the top of the ticket really ends up being the Biden blowout these polls are suggesting, but it will matter if polls are understating Republican strength in ME and the race in the state tightens a little as fundamentals and trends win out. I have a hard time buying that Biden is going to replicate Obama's margin here or do even better than that (more likely itíll be a margin in the high single digits or so).
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2020, 02:09:59 PM »

Regional breakdown in ME:

First Congressional district:

Cumberland: Gideon +37 (64-27) -- Biden +45
Rest: Collins +3 (48-45) -- Biden +16

Second Congressional district:

Acadia/Bangor: Gideon +10 (53-43) -- Biden +19
North: Collins +20 (58-38) -- Trump +11
Southwest: Collins +5 (49-44) -- Biden +7

Obviously not a good poll for Collins, but this is yet another major underperformance by Gideon (Bidenís ahead by 17 in this poll, Gideon only by 5; plus she already underperformed him by 9 points in the Quinnipiac poll, which was Biden +21 and Gideon +12). It likely wonít matter if the top of the ticket really ends up being the Biden blowout these polls are suggesting, but it will matter if polls are understating Republican strength in ME and the race in the state tightens a little as fundamentals and trends win out. I have a hard time buying that Biden is going to replicate Obama's margin here or do even better than that (more likely itíll be a margin in the high single digits or so).

What should be especially concerning to Collins' campaign is that in the earlier ME polls showing smaller leads for Biden (admittedly only a few of these so far), the Collins overperformance wasn't (on average) as major - at least, in terms of margin. It's very plausible that either the blowout is real but happening amongst voters who still support Collins or that the kind of moderate Republican willing to vote Biden but still support Collins is being oversampled. It's considerably less likely that the polls showing huge leads for Biden are wrong AND that the polls showing smaller leads for Biden and less crossover support for Collins are also wrong.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2020, 03:50:51 PM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Siena Research Institute on 2020-09-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2020, 03:51:30 PM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Siena Research Institute on 2020-09-15

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2020, 03:52:37 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Siena Research Institute on 2020-09-15

Summary: D: 42%, R: 37%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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