Skill and Chance
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« on: September 18, 2020, 08:27:05 AM » |
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« edited: September 18, 2020, 08:30:25 AM by Skill and Chance »
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The most likely way it would happen going forward would be a 1932 level defeat for Trump this year leading to a breakup of the GOP. Given the state of the country right now, this is probably the best opportunity for something like this to happen in a long time, but it's still highly unlikely.
The closest call in recent history would have been a Bush Sr. win in 1992. The 1996 economy makes it just about impossible for the incumbent party to lose and the 1st term incumbent boost should have been enough for a narrow win in 2000. A Dem finally wins in 2004- just in time to get blamed for the housing crisis. Then the party collapses in the 2010's. The new opposition coalition would be either libertarians and former Dem doves or Evangelicals and former Dem populists/socialists depending on whether Roe v. Wade finally got overturned at some point during 1992-2012. There would eventually be a social conservative backlash against the GOP if SCOTUS didn't overturn it.
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