Let's face it. It's probably never going to happen BUT
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  Let's face it. It's probably never going to happen BUT
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Author Topic: Let's face it. It's probably never going to happen BUT  (Read 1412 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: September 17, 2020, 04:06:01 PM »
« edited: September 17, 2020, 04:25:40 PM by Chocolate Thunder »

- What is a likely near future scenario that could unfold where one of the parties disbands and what would the system and culture out of it look like?

My take it is that one of the parties will start to unravel if they begin to consistently underperform. An example of this would be if the Democrats never recovered in 2006 or something along those lines. Yes there were times where a party was deeper and longer in the wilderness, but when you look at the context of having one of your own ending a popular presidency and leaving the opposition with the country cruising and then there's war, weak economy, ect cetera, ect cetera, and then still your party doesn't win. At that point, there just doesn't appear to really be a way forward. My guess is that we may have come close to this before in the past. Who was Strom Thurmond, Ross Perot, Robert LaFollette?

- Could we have a "Democracy" with a one party system? 
Could you just have a system where everybody just votes in the ruling party's primary? Couldn't having a one party system just be the same as having no parties?
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 09:58:07 PM »

It seems to me the likeliest way this could happen is if a party has primary voters really out of touch with the center of the country. It's not likely, but it's possible with increased polarization and nationalization of politics.

It would be more likely to occur with Republicans, as appealing to white conservative Christian parents is enough to win some congressional races, but could keep a party out of national contention.

But it probably wouldn't be a complete eradication. It would be more like Democrats after the Civil War, when Grover Cleveland was the only president to win elections for the party in generations, or the Republicans after the great depression, when blowouts for Democrats sandwiched the Eisenhower administration.

For a party to get eradicated, you would need some major realignment, like the fight over slavery becoming much more significant than the divide between whigs and democratic-republicans. Given the rapid rate of technological change, this might occur. Maybe universal basic income causes it. Or some kind of fight about robot rights.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 10:23:45 PM »

The easiest way for this to happen is for one party to become so ideologically extreme that it alienates all but its most ardent members, while the other party becomes an absolute unit of a big tent. Eventually the extreme party becomes a minor party in a Singapore-ish basically-one-party system.

Most likely this would result in a split of the megabigtent party into two or more parties, as it would no longer have a common enemy to keep it united.


I suppose the most plausible way for this to happen in modern America would be a Republican base that refuses to let go of Trumpism and a Democratic Party that abandons any specific ideology in favor of becoming the "anything but Trumpism" party, resulting in the Democratic big tent expanding to the maximum (somewhere around 67% of the country, based on polls on specific issues showing that about 1/3 are true "deplorables") and eventually splitting, presumably into moderate and progressive parties.


Could we have a "Democracy" with a one party system? 

A one-party system is as democratic as the party wants it to be. So, yes, but it would be fragile.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2020, 08:27:05 AM »
« Edited: September 18, 2020, 08:30:25 AM by Skill and Chance »

The most likely way it would happen going forward would be a 1932 level defeat for Trump this year leading to a breakup of the GOP.  Given the state of the country right now, this is probably the best opportunity for something like this to happen in a long time, but it's still highly unlikely.

The closest call in recent history would have been a Bush Sr. win in 1992.  The 1996 economy makes it just about impossible for the incumbent party to lose and the 1st term incumbent boost should have been enough for a narrow win in 2000.  A Dem finally wins in 2004- just in time to get blamed for the housing crisis.  Then the party collapses in the 2010's.  The new opposition coalition would be either libertarians and former Dem doves or Evangelicals and former Dem populists/socialists depending on whether Roe v. Wade finally got overturned at some point during 1992-2012.  There would eventually be a social conservative backlash against the GOP if SCOTUS didn't overturn it.
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2020, 06:08:20 AM »

What if it happened at the state level to a state? Imagine California having the Democrats be a Conservative party while the left is something else?
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2020, 03:16:04 PM »

Democrats didnt disband despite losing all but the post-Watergate election between 1968 and 1988 (and mostly in landslides). They also had no real chance of victory with a solid south and west against them.

Republicans didnt disband despite winning only one (+reelection) between 1932 and 1964. And that one was somebody  both parties recruited for the nomination.

So, I'd agree with what precedes the BUT in the foreseeable future.
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Person Man
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2020, 05:07:09 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2020, 05:11:23 PM by Chocolate Thunder »

Democrats didnt disband despite losing all but the post-Watergate election between 1968 and 1988 (and mostly in landslides). They also had no real chance of victory with a solid south and west against them.

Republicans didnt disband despite winning only one (+reelection) between 1932 and 1964. And that one was somebody  both parties recruited for the nomination.

So, I'd agree with what precedes the BUT in the foreseeable future.


Yeah but Democrats lost a war and held Congress except for 6 years where they didn’t hold the senate. And the Republican drought...that was really bad. Where do we have a time when a party is locked out without an obvious reason?

Going 12 years without winning something when the last guy you put up there wasn’t considered a failure would be unique.

1896-1912 was interesting because both parties started that period with very conservative reputations and by the end of it, both had more liberal reputations.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2020, 09:45:04 PM »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 01:55:10 AM »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.

Define "Social Democrat" and "Christian Democrat" please.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2020, 08:37:24 AM »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.

Define "Social Democrat" and "Christian Democrat" please.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_democracy

I bet you're sitting there like "oh boy oh boy oh boy is he talking about my obscure ideology"
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2020, 08:45:14 AM »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.

Define "Social Democrat" and "Christian Democrat" please.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_democracy

I bet you're sitting there like "oh boy oh boy oh boy is he talking about my obscure ideology"

?

I'll rephrase it better: what would be the main and most profound differences between the two factions?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2020, 08:53:45 AM »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.

Define "Social Democrat" and "Christian Democrat" please.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_democracy

I bet you're sitting there like "oh boy oh boy oh boy is he talking about my obscure ideology"

?

I'll rephrase it better: what would be the main and most profound differences between the two factions?

?

Not much. A Christian Democrat is usually "socially moderate" and takes a more decentralized approach to welfare programs, typically prioritizing the state, local, or neighborhood church level. Assuming the country is in such bad shape that a party has collapsed there's probably some consensus around bigger government to solve those problems. Most of you have probably heard of Social Democracy but Christian Democracy is an idea that hasn't really come to the Anglosphere yet.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2020, 09:49:11 AM »

?

Not much. A Christian Democrat is usually "socially moderate" and takes a more decentralized approach to welfare programs, typically prioritizing the state, local, or neighborhood church level. Assuming the country is in such bad shape that a party has collapsed there's probably some consensus around bigger government to solve those problems. Most of you have probably heard of Social Democracy but Christian Democracy is an idea that hasn't really come to the Anglosphere yet.

I come from the Italosphere, so I am pretty used to the idea of Christian Democracy. At the same time I know that it is not really part of the Anglosphere. Indeed what animated my questions is that I don't really see much space for Christian Democracy in the American Democratic Party.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2020, 10:13:29 AM »

?

Not much. A Christian Democrat is usually "socially moderate" and takes a more decentralized approach to welfare programs, typically prioritizing the state, local, or neighborhood church level. Assuming the country is in such bad shape that a party has collapsed there's probably some consensus around bigger government to solve those problems. Most of you have probably heard of Social Democracy but Christian Democracy is an idea that hasn't really come to the Anglosphere yet.

I come from the Italosphere, so I am pretty used to the idea of Christian Democracy. At the same time I know that it is not really part of the Anglosphere. Indeed what animated my questions is that I don't really see much space for Christian Democracy in the American Democratic Party.

I can see it as a far future evolution of the populist and progressive ideas being thrown around right now with input from Latin American immigrants. Localism was an element in historical American politics that disappeared because of industrialization, but those sentiments are starting to stir again in the post-industrial age. Americans have already become more insular.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2020, 10:26:24 AM »

?

Not much. A Christian Democrat is usually "socially moderate" and takes a more decentralized approach to welfare programs, typically prioritizing the state, local, or neighborhood church level. Assuming the country is in such bad shape that a party has collapsed there's probably some consensus around bigger government to solve those problems. Most of you have probably heard of Social Democracy but Christian Democracy is an idea that hasn't really come to the Anglosphere yet.

I come from the Italosphere, so I am pretty used to the idea of Christian Democracy. At the same time I know that it is not really part of the Anglosphere. Indeed what animated my questions is that I don't really see much space for Christian Democracy in the American Democratic Party.

I can see it as a far future evolution of the populist and progressive ideas being thrown around right now with input from Latin American immigrants. Localism was an element in historical American politics that disappeared because of industrialization, but those sentiments are starting to stir again in the post-industrial age. Americans have already become more insular.

OK That makes more sense to me. So the "Christian Democrat" faction would be primarily composed of Latin Americans?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2020, 10:57:22 AM »
« Edited: September 21, 2020, 11:28:32 AM by Anarcho-Statism »

?

Not much. A Christian Democrat is usually "socially moderate" and takes a more decentralized approach to welfare programs, typically prioritizing the state, local, or neighborhood church level. Assuming the country is in such bad shape that a party has collapsed there's probably some consensus around bigger government to solve those problems. Most of you have probably heard of Social Democracy but Christian Democracy is an idea that hasn't really come to the Anglosphere yet.

I come from the Italosphere, so I am pretty used to the idea of Christian Democracy. At the same time I know that it is not really part of the Anglosphere. Indeed what animated my questions is that I don't really see much space for Christian Democracy in the American Democratic Party.

I can see it as a far future evolution of the populist and progressive ideas being thrown around right now with input from Latin American immigrants. Localism was an element in historical American politics that disappeared because of industrialization, but those sentiments are starting to stir again in the post-industrial age. Americans have already become more insular.

OK That makes more sense to me. So the "Christian Democrat" faction would be primarily composed of Latin Americans?

I think so, but in general I'd expect Social Democrats to do better in the cities and Christian Democrats in rural areas. Like a more balanced version of the First Party System. Mexican-American communities along the Rio Grande and the Deep South Black Belt might vote for the more conservative option than those who left for the cities, where economic and political centralization is in their interest and neighborly charity doesn't cut it.

This being America, "socialism" is a bad word unlike in Europe (although neither seem to understand what it actually is, *ahem* the workers owning the means of production), so expect socialized anything to come under a different name embracing the rugged individualist tradition. I don't think these parties would actually be called Social Democrats or Christian Democrats, but that would be the idea. Welfarists of varying degrees. God forbid we actually cure the problem instead of just treating it.
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2020, 11:51:53 AM »

?

Not much. A Christian Democrat is usually "socially moderate" and takes a more decentralized approach to welfare programs, typically prioritizing the state, local, or neighborhood church level. Assuming the country is in such bad shape that a party has collapsed there's probably some consensus around bigger government to solve those problems. Most of you have probably heard of Social Democracy but Christian Democracy is an idea that hasn't really come to the Anglosphere yet.

I come from the Italosphere, so I am pretty used to the idea of Christian Democracy. At the same time I know that it is not really part of the Anglosphere. Indeed what animated my questions is that I don't really see much space for Christian Democracy in the American Democratic Party.

I can see it as a far future evolution of the populist and progressive ideas being thrown around right now with input from Latin American immigrants. Localism was an element in historical American politics that disappeared because of industrialization, but those sentiments are starting to stir again in the post-industrial age. Americans have already become more insular.

OK That makes more sense to me. So the "Christian Democrat" faction would be primarily composed of Latin Americans?

I think so, but in general I'd expect Social Democrats to do better in the cities and Christian Democrats in rural areas. Like a more balanced version of the First Party System. Mexican-American communities along the Rio Grande and the Deep South Black Belt might vote for the more conservative option than those who left for the cities, where economic and political centralization is in their interest and neighborly charity doesn't cut it.

This being America, "socialism" is a bad word unlike in Europe (although neither seem to understand what it actually is, *ahem* the workers owning the means of production), so expect socialized anything to come under a different name embracing the rugged individualist tradition. I don't think these parties would actually be called Social Democrats or Christian Democrats, but that would be the idea. Welfarists of varying degrees. God forbid we actually cure the problem instead of just treating it.

"Populist Party" vs. "Progressive Party"

or maybe one of them is called the "People's Party".

Another spin of a country with a similar situation could be the "People's Party" LoC Establishment) vs. big tent center-right alliance "The American Alliance".
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2020, 12:12:00 PM »

"Populist Party" vs. "Progressive Party"

or maybe one of them is called the "People's Party".

Another spin of a country with a similar situation could be the "People's Party" LoC Establishment) vs. big tent center-right alliance "The American Alliance".


Sounds like an interesting timeline in the making!
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2020, 05:41:47 PM »

IMO it's more likely than people think considering the nationalisation and presidentialisation of US politics. Just have an independent candidate win the presidency, whose party then cannibalises the Dems or Reps. This is basically what happened to the French Socialist Party after Macron won.

Imagine if Perot had won in 1992 and is super popular because of the 90s economy, enough voters defect to the Reform Party, permanently marginalising the Democratic Party which after having won one presidential election since 1968 collapses.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2020, 12:11:59 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2020, 07:34:53 PM by Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln) »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.

Eh, even under huge racial polarization, the GOP would control much more than that. Here is how a hypothetical election would look like if suddenly race was the only thing that mattered, and Republicans only won states that are both at least 66% or more non-hispanic white and that voted for Trump in 2016:



Dem: 365
GOP: 173

While a crushing defeat, this map is roughly on par with what the GOP got in 2008, so it's not "permanent majority" territory either. Plus this map is kind of a "best case scenario" for Dems. An slightly more realistic map under intense racial polarization is this (adding tossups this time for places I am not 100% sure about):



Dem: 292
GOP: 199
Tossup: 54

So while Dems would have the advantage, it would not be permanent majority territory, not even close; though polarization also means that elections would be very inelastic.

Fun fact, under this scenario, there would be 22 states voting GOP, so they'd only need 4/9 tossup states to get the Senate.
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2020, 08:21:25 AM »

The most likely of impossible scenarios, IMO, would be racial polarization dooming an unbudging GOP to control only a small part of the Midwest. Eventually, we would get Social Democrat and Christian Democrat factions.

Eh, even under huge racial polarization, the GOP would control much more than that. Here is how a hypothetical election would look like if suddenly race was the only thing that mattered, and Republicans only won states that are both at least 66% or more non-hispanic white and that voted for Trump in 2016:



Dem: 365
GOP: 173

While a crushing defeat, this map is roughly on par with what the GOP got in 2008, so it's not "permanent majority" territory either. Plus this map is kind of a "best case scenario" for Dems. An slightly more realistic map under intense racial polarization is this (adding tossups this time for places I am not 100% sure about):



Dem: 292
GOP: 199
Tossup: 54

So while Dems would have the advantage, it would not be permanent majority territory, not even close; though polarization also means that elections would be very inelastic.

Fun fact, under this scenario, there would be 22 states voting GOP, so they'd only need 4/9 tossup states to get the Senate.

I could see it where it does come completely balanced after DC and PR are given representation.
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