Election Night Timelines Project

[KaiserDave]

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

[KaiserDave]

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

[KaiserDave]

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

Kasich would turn out the base due to hatred the base had of Hillary and also people forget but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html

1. It cannot be denied that Trump had a powerful and unique appeal, he brought in non voters and many enthusiastic converts

2. So?

[KaiserDave]

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

Kasich would turn out the base due to hatred the base had of Hillary and also people forget but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html

1. It cannot be denied that Trump had a powerful and unique appeal, he brought in non voters and many enthusiastic converts

2. So?

Trump did worse raw percentage-wise in PA and WI than Bush did in 2004 and the recession did impact as that turns people against the incumbent party

1. That’s just because of third party voters. Any gains by Kasich would make with them would be offset two fold by the loss of trumps industrial base

2. That really didn’t have an impact on the 2016 election.

[KaiserDave]

Even without the collapse of Lehman, after eight years of Bush I don't see how Rudy can win. But we will see