Election Night Timelines Project

[President Johnson]

Great going so far. While I'd support Hillary, Kasich would be a decent president after all.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, November 8, 1988




Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, good evening and welcome to election night 1988. After more than a year of campaigning, the big day has finally arrived. The presidential election to chose a successor for President Ronald Reagan, who is about to finish his second term in office. Additionally, there are elections to the House and Senate, governors and many races at the state and local level.

Tonight, the showdown between the two major candidates has arrived. Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is running on the Republican side to succeed fellow Republican Ronald Reagan. Senator Dole, who ran unsuccessfully in 1980 and was also President Gerald Ford's running mate in 1976, landed a stunning upset in the Iowa Caucus earlier this year. He continued his streak of victories and forced Vice President George Bush out of the race by April. Bush was the initial frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but has been plagued by a number scandals surrounding his involvement of the Iran Contra scandal. While President Reagan has not experienced lasting damage to his approval rating, Vice President Bush has struggled to connect with voters. After exiting the race, there were some last minute negotiations between the Dole and Bush camps at the convention on whether Bush should stay on the ticket, but these talks failed. Ultimately, Senator Dole has selected Governor James Thompson of Illinois as his vice presidential candidate. However, Mr. Thompson was not his first choice. Initially, he planned to run with Governor George Deukmejian of California. But the governor declined, saying he was not willing to step down and hand his reigns of power to his Democratic lieutenant governor Leo McCarthy. Senator Al D'Amato was also in the mix, but declined.

Moving into the fall, Senator Dole has stressed to continue President Reagan's policies, but also made it clear he was not running for a third Reagan term. He has rolled out an ambitious infrastructure plan and aid to farmers during the Mid-Western farm crisis. While he promised not to to raise taxes, he has indicated to oppose major cuts in social services. As president, Mr. Dole also plans to move more aggressively towards disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union.

On the Democratic side, Tennessee senator Al Gore surprised pundits by defeating a number of challengers. At 40 years, he's the yongtest major party presidential nominee and would become the youngest president in American history. His success in the nominating process was stunning. First, Senator Gary Hart of Colorado was forced out of the contest by a sex scandal, then Senator Biden due to plagiarism issues. Governor Michael Dukakis appeared to be in a strong position, but had a number of bad debate performances, causing his numbers to slip. By the end of March, Gore had won all Southern primaries and in the Midwest, including Iowa, leaving him as the presumptive nominee. After securing the nomination, Senator Gore looked at several vice presidential options, and ultimately picked outgoing Florida senator Lawton Chiles. Mr. Chiles has been in the senate since 1971, making him a strong balance to Gore, who has just been there for four years. By picking a fellow Southerner, it became evident how much the Gore campaign is focused on taking back at least some states they have lost since 1976, the last victory for a Democrat. In addition, Mr. Chiles' selection has moved Florida into a swing state this election cycle.

Senator Gore's campaign has mainly been concentrated about innovation of new technologies and economic development. He has stressed to undo some of Ronald Reagan's economic policies, but rejected calls to return to Big Government. On foreign policy, his agenda remains relatively vague, though he emphasized the need to strengthen allies and further normalize relations with the USSR. Gore forcefully rejected Republican attacks he intended to cut the defense budget. During the vice presidential debate, Senator Chiles had a strong moment by countering Governor Thompson's attacks on that issue.

In addition to my colleagues at NBC News, we have two major surrogates of each ticket in the studio tonight. It's my honor to welcome President Gerald Ford to the studio, who has campaigned and advised the Dole campaign. Yesterday, he joined President Reagan and Senator Dole for the final rally in Philadelphia. On the Democratic side, we have Senator Joseph R. Biden of Delaware, who himself ran for the nomination last year and his since supported the Gore campaign. Welcome to both of you!

President Ford: My pleasure.

Senator Biden: Thank you. My pleasure as well.

Tom Brokaw: Thanks, Gentlemen. Ahead of our election coverage, I want to take a look at our final polling map. Right now, it appears as Senator Dole has an advantage, but pundits really expect a long night. This could go down the wire.

Dark colors stand for a lead of more than 15%, light colors for a lead in the polls between 3% and 5%. Everything under three percent is in green.

Dole/Thompson (R): 238 EV.
Gore/Chiles (D): 156 EV.
Tossup: 144 EV.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART I



Image Sources: Wikimedia Commons (PD): Link 1, Link 2


7.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: Welcome again to all of you at home, across the nation and around the world. This is NBC News Election 1988. I'm Tom Brokaw, your moderator for this election night. It is seven p.m. here in New York City and we have the first poll closings at this hour. Right now, based on exit polls done by our network, we can project the first state: The state of Indiana will go to Bob Dole. No surprise here. This state hasn't voted for a Democrat at the presidential level since 1964, when President Lyndon Johnson won reelection in a landslide. We're not expecting a landslide for either party today. Should Senator Dole win the White House, he will not receive the same electoral mandate as President Reagan did in either of his two elections.

More poll closings are in Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina and Vermont. We have not enough data to project any of them yet, although we expect South Carolina in the Dole column. All three others were hotly contested in recent months. The Dole campaign is optimistic about keeping Kentucky, while they are nervous about Florida. They assumed to have this in the bag until Al Gore chose Lawton Chiles as his vice presidential running mate. Chiles has been a popular figure in his state for almost two decades and we expect him to make a major impact. As for Vermont, the Democrats hope to make inroads in New England and flip some states in this part of the country. Our exit polls predict a close Dole victory, but we haven't seen enough evidence to make a firm prediction. Only time will tell. Stay with us for more.

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 12 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 0 EV.
Too close/early to call: 53 EV.


7.30 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: It's 7.30 and we have more poll closings in the states of Georgia, that came in late due to logistical problems in some polling places, West Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. Before we discuss them, we are now able to give another call from the seven o'clock states: South Carolina! While Democratic-leaning at the state level, Senator Bob Dole has prevailed over his rival and goes on to win the state. Eight more votes for Senator Dole! South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond has been on the campaign trail backing Dole in most recent days, drawing large crowds. Dole has actually exceeded expectation as far as we can project. This is a good sign for him with regard to the South. If Mr. Dole can hang on to most states here, he should be in a good position to be elected president.

Now, from our new poll closings, NBC News has called the state of West Virginia for the Democrats. No surprise here, that state has voted reliably Democratic in the past. Ronald Reagan carried the state four years ago, but in 1980, Jimmy Carter held on. Now West Virginia returns to its Democratic identity and gives Senator Dole his first electoral votes for tonight. With regard to the other states, we are unable to make a prediction this early. We keep you up to date. Stay with us, as we take short break for more coverage of the 1988 election.

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 20 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 6 EV.
Too close/early to call: 93 EV.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART II




8.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: Welcome back to our coverage of Election Night 1988! I am delighted to announce the next states that have polls closed now: Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Missouri, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland. As well as the District of Columbia, Rhode Island and Illinois. Many of them are hotly contested.

We can project a number of them right now: Oklahoma and Alabama were won by Senator Dole. Important states for him, but they go as expected. Senator Gore has also won electoral votes as we speak: The carried the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Maryland. Important states for the Gore/Chiles ticket, but they were must-wins in order to take back the White House after eight years. And as I just hear, Senator Gore has carried his homestate of Tennessee. The fact that we can make this projection so early may indicate that he is doing well among certain constituencies in the South. That's absolutely necessary if he wants to be elected the 41st President of the United States. In the other states, we are unable to make a projection.

Furthermore, I just received word that Kentucky has reported a result: The Commonwealth of Kentucky has awarded its electoral votes to Bob Dole. Major win for him, as he is projected to win this state in high single digits. Democrats hoped to win Kentucky back, but it hasn't worked out. Still early though. Take a look at our map: Senator Gore has taken the lead, but a long road to 270.

Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 47 EV.
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 46 EV.
Too close/early to call: 186 EV.


8.30 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: Polls are closed in Arkansas now, but there is no projection so far. This is a state that traditionally votes Democratic at the state level, but Ronald Reagan has done well here. Bob Dole contested the state, hoping to maintain these electoral votes in the Republican column. But Al Gore is not Walter Mondale. He is from a neighboring state. We have to see whether Arkansas will return to its Democratic identity or whether it sticks with the Republicans here.

We have now a smaller, but important projection: The state of Delaware has gone for Senator Gore. A small state with just three electoral votes, but hotly contested. In a close race, that could make a difference. Our guest here tonight, Senator Joseph Biden, is from the state and heavily campaigned for Al Gore. Senator, now that you have won Delaware for Al Gore, which position do you take in his cabinet, should he win?

Senator Biden: [laughs] Tom, I have to tell you, I'm glad the people of Delaware made the right decision. These are my neighbors. Hard working folks who are busting their neck. All they want is a shot. That's all they want. Now I'm glad our efforts have materalized and Al Gore is three electoral votes close to the presidency. Anything else is pure speculation. Number one, we have to get there. Number two, these are decisions a new president has to make. I hope our new president is going to be Al Gore, whom I've always called a dear friend. And I really mean it. This man and Lawton Chiles are not in for themselves. They're in this for us.

Tom Brokaw: Indeed, we're not near 270 now. We take a short break and will be right back!

Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 50 EV.
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 46 EV.
Too close/early to call: 189 EV.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART III




9.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: I am delighted to welcome you all back to our coverage of election night. Before we are going to our poll closings, NBC News is now confident to make a number of calls: One is the state of North Carolina, where we now project Senator Bob Dole to be the winner. There go 13 electoral votes into the Republican column. We also project that Governor James Martin is reelected to his post. Important call for the Dole camp.

Two more state calls from New England: The state of New Hampshire has been carried by Senator Dole as well. For electoral votes. Typically New Hampshire is the most conservative state in the New England region. It usually backs Republican candidates for president. 1964 was the only exception here, when President Lyndon Johnson took the state. Another call from New England is for the Gore/Chiles ticket: Connecticut and its eight electoral votes go to the Democrats. This is a major win for Al Gore, as the state usually leans Republican. Even in 1976, Jimmy Carter failed to win Connecticut. The result appears to be lose, but with 98% of the vote in, Al Gore has roughly 50.8% of the vote, while Bob Dole received 48.6%.

And now to our nine o'clock poll closings: These poll closings consist a lot of states in the Midwest and Great Plains. As expected, the map is now filling in a lot of blue for Bob Dole. However, with the exception of Texas, few of these states are electoral votes rich. States NBC News is calling for Bob Dole: Texas with its 29 electoral votes. Huge win for the Dole/Thompson camp. His homestate of Kansas, no surprise here. We also call Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming and Arizona. States we are unable to call yet include Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin and Louisiana.

Now that Republicans have raked up some votes, we also call two states for the Democrats: Minnesota and the state of New York. The latter a heavy weight in the Electoral College. 36 electoral votes for Al Gore. It looks like he was done extremely well in New York City, except for Staten Island as well was in Upstate and Long Island.

And as I just hear, the state of Virginia has been called for Bob Dole. That's twelve more votes for Senator Dole.

Take a look at our map, the Dole/Thompson ticket is back in the lead:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 132 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 104 EV.
Too close/early to call: 206 EV.


9.21 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: We interrupt the break for a major call: We can officially decalare Bob Dole the winner in the state of New Jersey. Crucial victory for him. Democrats hoped to make some inroads here, but New Jersey stays with the Republicans. And we have one more call for the Dole camp: Local networks from Maine have decalred Bob Dole the winner here. Bob Dole expands his electoral vote count to 152. We are right back in a moment.


9.46 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: We have now two projections: First, the state of Mississippi. Senator Dole was prevailed in this crucial southern state and earned these electoral votes. Al Gore hoped to win here by turning a black voters. It turns out they have succeeded in this goal, but it was just not enough to flip the state. But there are good news for Democrats as well: Al Gore has carried the state of Pennsylvania! With 95% of the vote in, Al Gore has a four point lead, 51% to 46.9%. Big win for Al Gore. 25 Electoral votes. However, Bob Dole is still leading the overall count:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 159 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 129 EV.
Too close/early to call: 154 EV.


10.00 p.m.

Tom Brokaw: It's ten o'clock here in our studio in New York City, and you are watching election night 1988. We have two poll closings from the Mountain West: Montana and Utah. NBC News is confident to call both for Bob Dole. While Utah is hardly a surprise, a number of Democratic operatives have urged the Gore campaign to go for Montana, as they felt the state was winnable. However, campaign officials have dismissed the idea and preferred to campaign in the South, Midwest and go heavy for California.

There is another state we can call at poll closing now. That may come as a surprise: The state of Iowa goes right into the Gore column. Typically contested terrain, but with half of the vote in, it looks like Al Gore is winning by over ten points. Pundits attribute this to the Reagan Administration's handling of the farm crisis, that was subject to widespread criticism. Bob Dole tried to distance himself from the administration during the final weeks of the campaign, but it looks as if that wasn't successful. At least not with Iowa farmers, who chose to vote for Al Gore in large numbers.

As you noticed, several states with earlier poll closings weren't called yet. Let me give you some updates from three states with more than 85% counted how things stand. As you can see, this race is an absolute nailbiter:

Ohio (89% in)
GORE (D).... 1,935,644 (49.5%)
DOLE (R).... 1,921,832 (49.1%)


Missouri (85% in)
GORE (D).... 870,049 (48.9%)
DOLE (R).... 867,731 (48.8%)


Vermont (92% in)
DOLE (R).... 111,709 (49.9%)
GORE (D).... 109,918 (49.1%)


Before heading into the break, let's also take a look at the overall picture: Bob Dole still ahead, but still not near the 270 he needs. Al Gore is within striking distance and many more calls remain open.

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 168 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 137 EV.
Too close/early to call: 154 EV.

[President Johnson]

What are the results from Florida and Illinois so far

Will be posted tomorrow Some states will be extremely, extremely close. I'm working at a full election result in Excel with basically changing the real percentages state by state.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART IV




10.28 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a key race projection from the State of Michigan: NBC News is joining the New York Times and our colleagues over at ABC, who minutes ago called Al Gore the winner in Michigan. With 99.8% of the vote in, Al Gore and Lawton Chiles have edged out a narrow win in this extremely critical Midwestern State. This could be the first major call of night. As counting comes to an end, Al Gore has an advantage of about 1.2%. He won 50.1% of the vote, while Bob Dole received around 48.9%. Someone who knows Michigan all too well is our studio guest, former President Gerald Ford. Mr. President, what is your take?

President Ford: Well, Tom, it's certainly a big call for Senator Gore tonight and I congratulate him on winning Michigan. This has always been a state that backed candidates of both parties. The result you show on your screen reflects how close this entire election is. Senator Dole campaigned hard in the state and I did everything I could in both Michigan and my now-homestate California. But a win is a win, and Mr. Gore has added 20 important votes to his tally. That being said, there are still enough opportunities for both candidates to reach 270. I believe that Bob Dole will prevail in the end. But Senator Gore has already run a strong race. Much stronger than the previous candidates. I believe he has a future, even if Bob Dole will become our new president.

Tom Brokaw: Thank you, Sir. We will be back in five minutes.



10.39 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: We are back in our studio, and we have three more calls to make: As goes Michigan, so goes Wisconsin. We can now confirm that Al Gore has taken the state of Wisconsin. Important win for the Democratic nominee. But there is some silver lining for the Dole campaign: Bob Dole is now the official winner in Colorado. It took a while to count all the votes here, but a fairly easy win for him in this Mountain state.

And finally, we have a call to make from Vermont, the last New England state that hasn't been called: Bob Dole narrowly carried Vermont, we can now confirm. The difference here was less than a half percentage point, or around 880 votes. Usually this is going to trigger a recount. Should the Electoral College get extremely tight, we may he heading for more than one recount and potential legal battles. Let's take a look at the updated map, as more and more color gets filled in:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 179 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 168 EV.
Too close/early to call: 112 EV.


10.50 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++


Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have another call to make. This time from a Southern state: NBC News is now projecting that Al Gore is the winner in Arkansas. Major flip for the Democrats, as the Gore campaign made a heavy pitch for this state. It's fair to say this victory can be attributed in large part to efforts of Governor Bill Clinton, who vigorously campaigned for Al Gore. Governor Clinton is a rising star in the party and gave the Keynote Speech at the DNC. He was considered a potential candidate himself, but declined to run later last year. However, Governor Clinton is part of Al Gore's transition team. Should he win the presidency, we might very well see Mr. Clinton in a major role such as Attorney General or Treasury Secretary.

Let me also give you an update on the battlegrounds. Just look how tight these numbers are. This race is an absolute nailbiter. We are prepared for a long night. If you plan to watch this to the end, I might suggest you have another cup of coffee.


Florida (88% in)
DOLE (R).... 1,874,088 (49.5%)
GORE (D).... 1,862,729 (49.2%)


Illinois (96% in)
GORE (D).... 2,162,544 (49.4%)
DOLE (R).... 2,162,129 (49.4%)


New Mexico (93% in)
DOLE (R).... 236,096 (48.7%)
GORE (D).... 233,187 (48.1%)


Ohio (95% in)
DOLE (R).... 2,075,319 (49.7%)
GORE (D).... 2,041,091 (48.9%)


Missouri (93% in)
GORE (D).... 961,671 (49.4%)
DOLE (R).... 957,777 (49.2%)




11.00 p.m.


Tom Brokaw: Polls are closed at the West Coast and in Nevada and Idaho. We have two immediate calls from these states: Bob Dole was won the state of Idaho. No surprise here, he has done remarkably well in Mountain states, which is why you a lot of blue on the map. In the state of Washington, though, we can declare Al Gore the winner. It is not overall surprising that he won, but how fast we can project that. Our reports out West said there was high turnout in Seattle, which heavily went to Gore.

We are not able to call Oregon and Nevada. We're also unable to call California, the biggest prize of the night. Its 47 electoral votes were heavily targeted by both campaigns and we expect a close race. We expect Senator Dole to do well in the Central Valley and parts of SoCal, while Al Gore has strong support in the Bay Area and around Los Angeles.

I just wanted to show you our new map, but I received word we have another projection from the South: Georgia has been called in Bob Dole's favor! Big win for the Republican ticket. Al Gore and Lawton Chiles, both Southerners, hoped to win back some of these Carter 1976 and 1980 voters and take Georgia. It turns out they did improve from Walter Mondale's disastrous showing four years ago, but not enough to overcome Atlanta suburbs that went heavily for Bob Dole.

Take a look at our refreshed map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 195 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 184 EV.
Too close/early to call: 152 EV.

Stay tuned, we will be back in a few moments.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART V




11.17 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: Welcome back at this late hour to our Election Night Coverage. For those of you just tuning in, we don't have a newly elected president at this moment, and it looks like we won't have one within the next hour or so. Maybe not even tomorrow morning. It is still a very tight race between Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, the Republican nominee, and Senator Al Gore of Tennessee, the Democratic nominee.

The long awaited result from Louisiana is now in, and it comes as a surprise: Al Gore has defeated Bob Dole in the state of Louisiana. We project that he takes the state and its ten electoral votes by about three points. This is another key flip in the South for the Gore campaign. As the night proceeds, all eyes are on big prizes left uncalled: California, Ohio, Illinois and Florida. The latter two are especially important to both campaigns, as they are the homestates of the two vice presidential candidates.

The two candidates have now almost equal the number of electoral votes. Take a look:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 195 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 194 EV.
Too close/early to call: 142 EV.


11.27 p.m. +++ Democrats retain House of Representatives +++


Wikimedia Commons (PD)


Tom Brokaw: While the presidential contest remains a dead heat, we have a major call: The Democrats will retain the majority in the House of Representatives for another two years. It looks like this is pretty much an even election with little change from the 1986 midterm elections. Democrats have surpassed the 218 votes necessary. We believe Democrats have at least 245 seats, Republicans at least 160. All thee rest remains to be called, but it's enough for a majority at this hour. President Ford, you served in the House for over two decades. What's your take?

President Ford: Tom, it is certainly a setback for Republicans. We urgently need to address the question how we are unable to win a majority for decades now, despite winning several presidential elections by healthy margins. I admit, Republicans fell short under my leadership as well, but we need to address this. That said, I have faith that Bob Dole, if elected, will establish a strong working relationship with the Democrats and get votes for items he thinks are necessary. On the other hand, a President Gore would be in a tough position either, as he would have to moderate between various factions within the Democratic conference.

Tom Brokaw: You are certainly right, Mr. President. Over on the senate side, we don't have a call yet, but it looks like Democrats will keep this chamber as well. We go into a short break.


11.41 p.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++


Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a very important call to make: With 99% of the vote counted in Ohio, we are now confident to declare Bob Dole the winner in Ohio. An extremely crucial victory for the Dole campaign. Republicans never won the White House without Ohio. On the contrary, only Thomas Dewey in 1944 and Richard Nixon in 1960 carried Ohio and still lost the White House. Now I want to turn to our reporter in Kansas at Dole Headquarters. How is the mood there?

Reporter I: Tom, people were cheering when the call came! They are excited, as you can hear in the background. This is a state they absolutely banked on. Especially now that we are seeing Al Gore doing better than predicted by the polls and pundits. Republicans have definitely grown more nervous, especially with regard to California. Can they win over enough voters that Ronald Reagan appealed to in the Golden State? That's the big question tonight. But I can tell you, Ohio has definitely given them a sign of relief. They hope the close the deal with California and Illinois as Florida appears to be a total wildcard.

Tom Brokaw: Interesting impressions, thank you. Let's go over the Nashville, Tennessee, where thousands of people have gathered in front of Gore headquarters. What's going on there?

Reporter II: Tom, the mood here is very positive and joyful. So you right here all the Gore/Chiles banners. Many Democrats were still in sort of shock and disappointment over the last election cycles, but with no Ronald Reagan on the ballot, the Republicans seem beatable with this energetic candidate they nominated. When Ohio was called moments ago, there was some breath taking, but all eyes are now on California, Missouri and Florida. I spoke with campaign operatives just minutes ago and they told me to be very confident about California, as Al Gore is appealing not just to liberals from San Francisco and Los Angeles, but also Silicon Valley. Remember, innovation and technology have been a centerpiece of this campaign. They're also optimistic that Lawton Chiles, the popular senator from the Sunshine State, can deliver his homestate to the Gore column. With that being said, back to New York City.

Tom Brokaw: Thank you, both once again. And I just received word about another call from the West Coast: Al Gore is the winner in the state of Oregon. Seven additional votes for him. And this is our map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 218 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 201 EV.
Too close/early to call: 112 EV.


Before we go on, I want to give you an update on the remaining states we have to watch very carefully:

California (86% in)
GORE (D).... 4,259,940 (50.1%)
DOLE (R).... 4,140,899 (48.7%)


Florida (95% in)
DOLE (R).... 2,027,250 (49.6%)
GORE (D).... 2,006,814 (49.1%)


Illinois (98% in)
DOLE (R).... 2,225,034 (49.8%)
GORE (D).... 2,211,626 (49.5%)


New Mexico (96% in)
DOLE (R).... 243,712 (48.7%)
GORE (D).... 242,712 (48.5%)


Missouri (96% in)
GORE (D).... 1,004,749 (50.0%)
DOLE (R).... 992,691 (49.4%)




12. a.m.; November 9

Tom Browkaw: It is midnight here in New York City right now, and out West, we have the last polls closed. That means, we technically elected a president, it just takes additional time to count all the votes and determine, who the American people chose. But, for this moment, we can project Bob Dole the winner of Alaska and its three electoral votes. When it comes to Hawaii, we project Al Gore to be the winner here. The Dole campaign actually hoped to win this state by appealing to Asian American voters, praising the Compensation bill President Reagan signed this year. But, it didn't win Bob Dole Hawaii.


12.15 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, I have two calls to make, but one of them is significant. NBC News goes ahead and declares Bob Dole the winner of Florida. With nearly all votes counted, it appears as if Bob Dole has narrowly carried the Sunshine State. This is a huge prize for him. A state they always felt comfortable, but the selection of Lawton Chiles as Democratic candidate for vice president turned things upside down. Right now, it appears as if Senator Chiles narrowly fell short to get these 21 electoral votes for Al Gore. That undoubtedly means the path to a Gore presidency has gotten narrower. They heavily rely on California. But if they win California and Missouri, where Al Gore is ahead, it would only get then to 263. Al Gore needs Illinois on top of that, where he is currently down by a slight margin, after being ahead earlier.

And one more call for Senator Dole: The state of Nevada. Not a big prize, but as he is getting closer to 270, still an important one. Check our updated map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 246 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 205 EV.
Too close/early to call: 87 EV.


We will be back in a few minutes. Stay tuned for more!

[President Johnson]

Wow Gore has almost no margin of error at this point , and it seems like even if wins he probably will fail to carry the popular vote.

Lol If Gore wins I just realized this is a repeat of 1960 where despite a popular Republican President, the Democrats barely win with a young high energy candidate who has a experienced southerner as VP while Republicans lose as their candidate is unable to energize their base anywhere near the incumbent did. Illionis is also a deciding state just like 1960 and the Texas of 1960 is California this time

Not spoiling anything, but if election night looked like this, Gore would may just rely on recounts. Illinois has 98% of the vote and he is trailing. Illinois alone puts Dole at 270, while he's also ahead in New Mexico.

[President Johnson]

Wow Gore has almost no margin of error at this point , and it seems like even if wins he probably will fail to carry the popular vote.

Lol If Gore wins I just realized this is a repeat of 1960 where despite a popular Republican President, the Democrats barely win with a young high energy candidate who has a experienced southerner as VP while Republicans lose as their candidate is unable to energize their base anywhere near the incumbent did. Illionis is also a deciding state just like 1960 and the Texas of 1960 is California this time

Not spoiling anything, but if election night looked like this, Gore would may just rely on recounts. Illinois has 98% of the vote and he is trailing. Illinois alone puts Dole at 270, while he's also ahead in New Mexico.

I wonder what the NY Times Live Forecast would look like if it existed then . The question would be of course where the remaining votes in Illionis are coming for, if there are more outstanding in the Chicago Suburbs then its all over for Gore , if more outstanding in the city of Chicago itself Gore Id say would have 30% chance of winning it.


So the forecast probably would be 80% Dole , 20% Gore(Since Dole could pull out a win in California too)

Not sure about California. At least today, Democratic margins increase as the night proceeds. I remember back in 2018, it took a while before Newsom got over 60%. Also looked like Orange County was going Republican, before Newsom took the lead.

One way or the other, I think California was winnable for Democrats in 1988. Poppy just won by around four, and Dukakis was a terrible candidate. Especially his perceived weakness on law and order hurt him badly in California.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART VI




12.27 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert: Florida call taken back! +++




Tom Brokaw: Ladies and Gentlemen, we interrupt the break for an unprecedented call: NBC News, along with ABC, is taking back the call from the state of Florida. This came as another junk of votes was added from the Miami Area that went largely for Al Gore. Our reporters just moments ago reached the office of the governor and secretary of state, which both confirmed a few thousand ballots remain to be counted. The map once again has changed:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 225 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 205 EV.
Too close/early to call: 108 EV.

I repeat for those just tuning in, the call of Florida for Bob Dole has been taken back by multiple news sources at this hour. As a result, the Sunshine state moves back into the undecided column. I have never experienced something like this, and we would like to apologize for the premature call. We will later have to find out, what exactly prompted the call. What I can tell you, is that Bob Dole increased his small lead over the last two junks of votes being added. Now, with more coming in, his lead de facto disappeared.

Can we get the numbers on the screen? I was told yes. So here they are. I mean, if anything can be called a dead heat, this is one.

Florida (99%)
DOLE (R).... 2,104,113 (49.4%)
GORE (D).... 2,104,074 (49.4%)


So, this election night is far from over. It might very well happen that there won't be a winner for days, perhaps weeks. Depending on how the remaining states vote. What is for sure, that there is going to be big relief at Gore Headquarters.

We are now once again going to Kansas, where our reporter is at the Republican election night party. How is the mood right now?

Reporter I: Tom, I have to tell you, when this call was taken back, there was silence going through the hall. Kind of shock, almost as if the election was lost. The mood has certainly changed among supporters here. I spoke to a high ranking Republican just moments ago, and he told me that this was a devastating blow to the Dole campaign. What's interesting is that he hinted not to count on California. So, Tom, right now, they are not talking about California. The Dole campaign it seems is still banking on Florida to come back. They feel good about Illinois and New Mexico, which would put them over 270. But it's remarkable they played down the possibility of winning California. It is possible they have some internals showing the state has moved away from them. All eyes are on Florida now. Back to New York.

Tom Brokaw: Indeed remarkable. Could we see the numbers in California again?

California (92% in)
GORE (D).... 4,611,722 (50.7%)
DOLE (R).... 4,393,416 (48.3%)


Yeah, it looks like our reporter from Kansas was head on. Al Gore has increased his lead in the Golden State. Losing the state would be a huge blow for the Republican ticket. This is President Reagan's homestate. As recent as two days ago, he made some campaign stumps for Senator Dole. And we saw that these crowds were much larger and enthusiastic when the president was there. It might be that some Californians, who like Ronald Reagan, just wanted to give a political newcomer a chance. The numbers are they are right now in California is probably the biggest surprise of this night. And if California goes for Gore, the Dole campaign will have to analyze what went wrong even if they end up winning 270 electoral votes. But right now, no call has been made.


12.40 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++

Tom Brokaw: There is some silver lining for the Dole campaign after Florida was taken out of his column. The state of New Mexico has been called for the Republican ticket. A very narrow win. But a win is a win, and Mr. Dole collects these five electoral votes.

And one more call is just coming in: The state of Missouri will award its 11 electoral votes to Al Gore. Important victory for Al Gore. Typically a swing state for several decades now, that voted for Democrats and Republicans back and forth. This time around, Missouri voters have decided to go for the Democrats by a close margin.

This is our map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 230 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 216 EV.
Too close/early to call: 92 EV.

Wow! Three states are left on the map. Three states that will now determine the outcome of this election. Bob Dole, standing at 230, needs either California or both of the voters to be elected the 41st President of the United States. Al Gore definitely has to win California, where he is ahead in the vote count, plus one of Florida and Illinois. He's trailing by a hair in latter, while Florida is a complete dead heat. Stay tuned for more!

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART VII




01.01 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++




Tom Brokaw: Welcome back to our coverage, Ladies and Gentlemen. I would like to say Good Evening, but we have already passed an hour past midnight, so I should say Good Morning. At this late, or early hour, we still have no president-elect, with three major states outstanding for a call. Up to this minute. Here comes the call for the state of Illinois: We can now confirm, that Illinois is going for Bob Dole. That means, he adds crucial 24 Electoral votes to his tally. James Thompson, the vice presidential candidate and sitting governor of that state, has delivered his homestate to the Republican column by a razor thin margin. In the end, it was only little more than 20,000 votes, out of four and a half million, that separated the two candidates. Big, big relief for Republicans, after Florida was taken back to undecided.

Take a look at the final result:

Illinois (100% in)
✓ DOLE (R).... 2,275,457 (49.9%)
GORE (D).... 2,253,573 (49.4%)


This is our map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 254 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 216 EV.
Too close/early to call: 68 EV.


Tom Brokaw: I want to bring in the two studio guests we have from both parties, President Ford and Senator Biden of Delaware. Mr. President, how do you see this election turning out?

President Ford: Tom, this is really another 1960 election, which I remember quite well. In a lot of ways. I mean, we're here at the end of a two-term Republican president who did well in his bids for the White House, while there is a very close contest to succeed him. I'm not here to make a prediction, but from what I have seen, Florida is very likely to decide this election and pick the president. I believe that California will go to Senator Gore, at least from the numbers I have seen so far. We will have to analyze this later, but it might be Republicans were overconfident in the Golden State. Ronald Reagan made it look easy to win, but it's actually a competitive states. Remember that even Richard Nixon just barely took it in 1960 and 1968. And in 1976, when I ran, I was just able to get over the finishline. This time, it looks like it's going the other way. The Dole campaign needs Florida now. I think it looks good, but we have to see.

Tom Brokaw: Thank you for your insights, Sir. Senator Biden, what's your take?

Senator Biden: First off, let me say how excited I am for the incredible race my dear friend Al Gore has run. This is a guy who came to the senate four years ago, did the heck of a job and his now close to the presidency. That's number one. Number two, I believe Senator Gore is in an excellent position to win California. I agree with the president on that. And in Florida, we see what happens. But this wouldn't have been possible with Lawton Chiles. Lawton is a very smart guy and Florida loves him.

Tom Brokaw: Gentlemen, I have to interrupt. Seems like we're getting a major call.

01.16 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++



Tom Brokaw: It looks like President Ford was right: We have a call for California. And according to that prediction, Senator Al Gore has won the biggest prize of the night. 47 Electoral votes for Al Gore and Lawton Chiles. For the first time since 1964, the Golden State went for a Democrat at the presidential level. I guess this must be sort of painful for President Reagan to watch. But that's what happened. Al Gore won California. I hear from our reporters, that the joy at Gore Headquarters in Nashville is immense. At the same time, this is a tremendous setback for the Dole campaign. They could have closed the deal now, or would have if Florida kept in his column. But now, this goes down to Florida.

I hear we have the numbers here. About two percent of the vote remains to be counted, but Al Gore's lead is so large that there is literally no chance for Bob Dole, even if he wins almost everything left.

California (98% in)
✓ GORE (D)....5,019,070 (51.8%)
DOLE (R).... 4,612,118 (47.6%)


That is truly a surprise. Not just that Al Gore won this state, but by this margin. It turns out his message for renewal and innovation really hit a nerve in the Golden States with its growing population and expanding tech industry. Bob Dole did not have such a message and lacked appeal for his cause. He relied on President Reagan's popularity and hoped that would be enough to carry him over the finishline while his attacks on Mr. Gore with regard to crime fell flat. It looks like Californians, while still having high regard for Ronald Reagan, want to try something new. And that's how it ended up this night.

Once more, I show you the map. Al Gore is now in the lead with 263 to 254 electoral votes:

Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 263 EV.
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 254 EV.
Too close/early to call: 21 EV.


Tom Brokaw: Florida, Florida, Florida! That's where all eyes are now on. By looking at how close this race is, it's virtually impossible to say when exactly we will have a winner. It's likely going to a recount. We're also looking at potential recounts in Vermont and New Mexico. But Florida is all that matters.

Here are the numbers:

Florida (99.5% in)
GORE (D)....2,119,007 (49.5%)
DOLE (R).... 2,118,925 (49.5%)


We will back in just a moment. Stay with us.

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Special


9.42 a.m. +++ BREAKING NEWS +++

Tom Brokaw: Good Morning America, after a very short night and little sleep we are back with some new developments on the election. As of now, we still have no declared winner in the state of Florida. In other words, there is no president-elect at this point.

Supporters all over the nation have waited for reactions from their candidates. It is known that Al Gore and Bob Dole had a brief telephone conversation later in the night. Sources tell us that they agreed neither would declare victory nor confess defeat. Seems that at least the candidates for now have agreed to let the process play out. However, we do have a statement from Senator Dole. Let's go over to Wichita, where he appears before the press.


₍₁₎

Senator Bob Dole: Good morning everyone! First I want to thank my whole team and my family in particular. And second, and most important of all, the millions out there putting their trust in me. Let me also congratulate my worthy opponent, Senator Al Gore. As much as we both wish this election would be over now, it is not done. This race is not over. There is going to be a recount in the state of Florida. This a matter to be handled by the state government and we will see what happens in the coming hours and days. I am prepared to support the outcome, no matter what. So please be patient for the end result. We are a democracy, and even though it may be slow at times, we ought not to undermine public confidence in the process. Thank you all very much.

Tom Brokaw: That was Bob Dole, Ladies and Gentlemen. And I just received word from our colleagues over in Washington DC that President Ronald Reagan is giving a statement. Listen in:


₍₂₎

President Ronald Reagan: Good morning. If there was the slightest doubt about the question whether each individual vote counts, last night should put these doubt to rest. Once and for all. Just minutes ago, I had telephone conversations with the candidates of both major parties. They both assured me, the would let the state government do its work and be ready to cooperate with my administration. Indeed, I offered them my full cooperation in the transition that will take place, so that the incoming president, whoever it is, is best prepared for the challenges ahead. I will not take any questions, but keep you in touch. Thank you all very much.


+++ Al Gore wins popular vote +++

Tom Brokaw: Before we look at Florida once more, we now have a clear picture about the national race. And with almost all ballots counted, we can say that Al Gore has won the popular vote nationwide.

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE
Albert Arnold Gore/Lawton Mainor Chiles (D)....45,447,201 (49.8%)
Robert Joseph Dole/James Robert Thompson (R).... 44,541,674 (48.8%)



And now Florida:

Florida (>99.9% in)
GORE (D)....2,122,004 (49.4%)
DOLE (R).... 2,121,972 (49.4%)


We are scheduled to hear from local officials very soon. Stay with us.


------

Image sources: Wikimedia Commons (PD)

(1) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1996_1st_Presidential_Debate_E.png
(2) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Photograph_of_President_Reagan_speaking_at_a_Rally_for_Representative_Broyhill_in_Greensboro,_North_Carolina_-_NARA_-_198574.jpg

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

November 10: Recount in Florida


BREAKING NEWS: Florida Governor Bob Martinez has authorized a recount for the statewide vote. A result is expected to be completed within a few days.

November 15

+++ BREAKING: AL GORE ELECTED PRESIDENT as Recount concludes +++
 

BOB DOLE CONCEDES


Wikimedia Commons (PD)

Bob Dole: Good afternoon my fellow countrymen: Just moments ago, I called Al Gore and congratulated him on his election to be the next president of the United States. I spoke to him and wished him all the best. The same, of course, applies to Tipper Gore, the incoming First Lady, as well as Vice President-elect Lawton Chiles and Mrs. Chiles. I also want to extend my thanks to our supports. After a long hard fought contest, the American people have spoken and elected a man their leader, whom I have known as passionate colleague in the senate. Tonight, in this moment of renewal, I urge all of you to pray for our next president and his success.

It was a great honor to be your nominee in this election. I did my best, as all of you did. You never let me down. Now it is time to come together as one nation, under god, to be that shining city upon a hill. Thank you all very, very much, and may god bless the United States of America.


AL GORE ADDRESSES NATION


Wikimedia Commons (PD)

Al Gore: My fellow Americans: I am deeply humbled and overwhelmed by the support you have shown me. Before I begin, let me use this opportunity to thank my dear colleague Bob Dole for his gracious words. This is a man who has served his country with honor and patriotism and I welcome his offer to work together. Let me also thank President Reagan for his call just minutes ago. I have accepted his invitation for a meeting in the White House tomorrow.

Today, a new chapter in the history of our country begins. America has chosen a new beginning and generational change. Now that the election and political process is over, we ought to come together as one nation, seeking to determine our own destiny. I look forward to working for you, the people, who have entrusted me with the highest of responsibilities. Let me once again thank you and may god bless our nation. Thank you.


Full results

[President Johnson]

So the Solid South breaking helps the Dems win as either FL or AR/LA gives Dole the presidency . Surprised Dole won Texas by 10 points given that HW only won it by 13 despite TX being his homestate and him winning nationally by 8 points .

Well, Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket, won his senate race and Poppy still went on to win by such a margin. Therefore, I think the margin is somewhat plausible here. Actually doubt Poppy benefited from a homestate advantage that much in 1988, unless Reagan in California, since Texas twice rejected him in senate bids.

[President Johnson]

My prediction:

✓ Former Governor Mark R. Warner (D-VA)/Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR): 289 EV. (50.11%)
Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY)/Senator John S. McCain (R-AZ): 249 EV. (48.39%)

[President Johnson]

Great work so far.

Will you make a result list by state at the end?

[President Johnson]

Great work so far.

Will you make a result list by state at the end?

I plan to list the states which are within 10 points. A full list depends on the time I have

Good.

If you need a template from my result above, let me know. I have a full Excel where you only have to fill in the percentages and insert the total number of votes cast by C&P from Wikipedia.

[President Johnson]

West Virginia for Warner, that's amazing.

[President Johnson]

Great job so far! I'm curious to see the state results.

[President Johnson]

Wow, that looks interesting, Chips. I think Obama would win here, but by a close margin. Is Dubya still governor of Texas, here?

It's kinda funny, in my novel, Al Gore wins in 2000 and McCain 2004 and 2008, before a fictional Democratic North Carolina senator runs in 2012 that ends in a 269-269 tie. She ultimately wins the House by one state delegation, but as it later turns out, through bribery, causing POTUS #45 to resign, allowing the protagonist of the story, who was vice president, to become president in 2014. That's the one in the Excel I sent OSR.

[President Johnson]

I definitely like the Warner cabinet here, especially Joe Biden, Terry McAuliffe and Mike Bloomberg. A true moderte hero administration.

[President Johnson]

After talking to OSR, I'm pleased to do next one.

MSNBC Live Coverage - DECISION 2016

Terry McAuliffe/Melinda Gates (D) vs. Marco Rubio/James Mattis (R)

Image Sources: Wikimedia Commons (PD): Link 1, Link 2


Mika Brzezinski: Good evening to everyone in America, and hello to everyone around the world. I'm pleased to begin this coverage of election night 2016. With me are Joe, Willie, Reverend Al Sharpton and Richard Haas. A long and hard fought campaign is coming to an end. It's finally the decision of voters. Isn't it, Joe?

Joe Scarborough: Indeed it is, Mika. Welcome from me as well. Finally, it is November 8, 2016, and voters will finally determine the 45th president of the United States, who will succeed Barack Obama next January. The election will be decided by the Governor of Virginia, Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic nominee, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee. Both had a competitive primary. On Democratic side, McAuliffe jumped in relatively late, declaring his candidacy on September 1, 2015, following Vice President Joe Biden's decline to run. Biden was considered the frontrunner after Hillary Clinton removed herself from the process due to health concerns as well as the ongoing E-Mail investigation. Governor McAuliffe started off as the favorite and was backed by the Establishment, but received a strong challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders.

On the Republican side, there was a much wider field of over 15 candidates. Rubio ultimately beat back strong challenges from Senator Ted Cruz and political outsider Ben Carson. It was not until June Marco Rubio secured the nomination.

Willie Geist: You said it, Joe, this was a primary of the outsiders. Now McAuliffe took the nomination and Rubio is seen some sort of bridge between the GOP Establishment and the Tea Party, both candidates chose exceptional running mates: Rubio picked General James Mattis, who never held public office. And McAuliffe also selected a running mate with no experience in public office, businesswoman Melinda Gates, co-founder of the Gates Foundation and wife to Bill Gates. If elected, Bill Gates, multi-billionaire and Microsoft founder, would be the Second Gentleman of the United States. Mr. Gates held a relatively low key role during the campaign, though he spoke at the DNC and gave two televised interviews. He also invested about 100 million dollars in the campaign of his wife. While Melinda Gates focused on economic opportunities and made efforts to gain female voters for McAuliffe, Mattis launched attacks on the Obama Administration's foreign policy. Mattis repeatedly criticized President Obama's Middle East approach and demanded tougher actions on ISIS. Rubio for his part focused on repealing Obamacare and tax reform. McAuliffe pledged to defend Obamacare and promised to increase the minimum wage to 15$ an hour. Latter was a compromise with Sanders; McAuliffe pledged to support a hike to 12$ during the primaries.

Joe Scarbourough: Thank you, Willie. Let's bring in Steve Kornacki, our man at the board. Steve, how does final polling look like?

Steve Kornacki: Certain is only that nothing is certain, Joe, that much I can say. The biggest surprises we have are Nevada, where Rubio has managed to hold constant lead since late September. Meanwhile, McAuliffe has narrowly polled ahead in North Carolina, after polls where neck in neck ever since the conventions. However, both are within the margin of error, as are all light shaded states. Our final polling map looks as follows:




Joe Scarborough: We go into a short break before MSNC returns for coverage. Stay tuned my friends!

[President Johnson]

MSNBC Live Coverage - DECISION 2016

7.00 p.m.

Joe Scarborough: Welcome again to all of you at home, across the nation and around the world. This is Morning Joe, covering the 2016 election for MSNBC. Together we watch the race to succeed President Barack Obama unfold this night. Now, out clock is saying it's is seven p.m. here in our studio. That means first polls have closed in the first states. I turn over to Steve Kornacki. Steve, your turn.

State Kornacki: Thank you, Joe. Let's right right into it: Based on all data we have at this point, we can already call two states: The state of Indiana will go to Marco Rubio. No surprise here. This was expected all along. President Obama surpringly captured the state in 2008 by a very slim margin, but it returned to its Republican in 2012. This year, it's no different. 11 votes for Marco Rubio. And one more: Kentucky - no surprise either - goes for the Rubio/Mattis ticket as well.

Second, the state of Vermont. Home of Bernie Sanders, this state is a Democratic strongold, especially at the national level. We are now calling Vermont for Terry McAuliffe. The Virginia governor has earned his first three electoral votes this night. But of course, that's just the beginning.

More poll closings are in Florida and South Carolina. It's a surprise we can't call the latter at this moment. Does that spell trouble for Rubio? There no indication for that, but we were informed they had some issues with reporting all numbers. However, that should get fixed briefly.

Let's check the big board:



Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/General James Mattis (R-WA): 19 EV.
Governor Terrence McAuliffe (D-VA)/Businesswoman Melinda Gates (D-WA): 3 EV.
Too close/early to call: 38 EV.


7.30 p.m.

Mika Brezinski: Welcome back to Morning Joe's coverage of election night. Minutes ago, we received word that South Carolina is indeed going for Rubio/Mattis. Hardly a surprise. That brings their total up to 28 electoral votes. Still a very long way to go. There is one more state: West Virgina. Obviously, this is a rock solid Republican state at the national level. Steve?

Steve Kornacki: It indeed is, Mika. Terry McAuliffe got smoked here. Our data suggests Rubio takes the state by at least 35 points. But, it's a small state and nothing that changes anything here.

Let's take a look now:



Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/General James Mattis (R-WA): 33 EV.
Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)/Businesswoman Melinda Gates (D-WA): 3 EV.
Too close/early to call: 29 EV.

We take a break before 8 o'clock poll closings. That's a ton of states. Stay tuned!

[President Johnson]

MSNBC Live Coverage - DECISION 2016

8.00 p.m.

Joe Scarborough: Welcome back, Ladies and Gentlemen. We have now eight o'clock and several new poll closings. In some of them, we already have a winner. Take us through these, Steve.

Steve Kornacki: We have, Joe. Marco Rubio can add a number of states to his column. However, none of them changes much of race yet. Let's start with a bunch of southern states: Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Missouri can already be called. Polling suggested latter may be somewhat competitive, but that's not the case. The McAuliffe campaign wisely didn't contest it, either. That's getting Rubio up to 76 electoral votes. Still a lot to go.

However, Governor McAuliffe is no longer stuck with the three electoral votes from the state of Vermont. He can add several more to his tally. MSNBC confirms that Terry McAuliffe has carried the following states: Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont. He also project that he won at least three out of four votes from Maine. Remember this is one of the two states that allocate their electoral votes by congressional district and at-large. McAuliffe carried the state as whole and the first district. The second is more competitive and remains uncalled. Furthermore, McAuliffe won the District of Culumbia, which is hardly a surprise here.

By looking at our vote tally, McAuliffe has now taken a narrow lead. All other states you see in green here are too early to call:



Governor Terrence McAuliffe (D-VA)/Businesswoman Melinda Gates (D-WA): 78 EV.
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/General James Mattis (R-WA): 76 EV.
Too close/early to call: 116 EV.

Back to you, Joe.

Joe Scarborough: Thank you, Steve. Any surprises at the congressional level yet?

Steve Kornacki: Not yet, but we actually expect the Democrats to make up ground. Remember that they both have a favorable senate map and come from a very low number of seats in the House. We don't expect latter to flip, however, the senate could get very close.

Joe Scarborough: Morning Joe is back in a few mintutes. Stay here.


8.30 p.m.


Willie Geist: I just hear that we have one more poll closing: The state of Arkansas. We can confirm that Marco Rubio has won the state by a healthy margin. This was once a Democratic stronghold, but didn't vote Democratic since the days of Bill Clinton, a native of Arkansas. We expect Terry McAuliffe to stay under 40% here.

Joe Scarborough: Indeed, this is no surprise here. When can we expect the first swing state to be called?

Willie Geist: Depends on what you consider a swing state. I can guarantee you Marco Rubio will win at least one, if not a handful, Obama states from 2012. Obviously their campaign feels good about Florida, but they're also very optimistic at Iowa. Nevada, too, though Ohio and North Carolina seem tougher than they expected.

Mika Brzezinski: Especially North Carolina. These early voting numbers we have seen so far are encouraging for the McAuliffe campaign. They have heavily targeted African American voters. I mean, there was a reason President Obama spent two full days there in the past three weeks, as did Vice President Biden and South Carolina congressman Jim Clyburn from neighboring South Carolina. Whether that will be enough is another question.

Joe Scarborough: Yes, and I have warned on this show that Republicans shouldn't take this for granted just because Mitt Romney won the state back despite losing nationally. On the other hand, it seems like Republicans have done a good job in Nevada and even Pennsylvania. The fact that McAuliffe ended his campaign in Philadelphia and Joe Biden made a number of last minute stumps definitely tells you that they are nervous. McAuliffe is leading in the polls here, but no room for comfort.

Willie Geist: Before the nine o'clock poll closings come in, let's take a brief look at the updated map:



Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/General James Mattis (R-WA): 82 EV.
Governor Terrence McAuliffe (D-VA)/Businesswoman Melinda Gates (D-WA): 78 EV.
Too close/early to call: 116 EV.


Let's stay with us for more.