Election Night Timelines Project

[Chips]

It is now 7:30PM on the east coast and we can project that West Virginia and South Carolina will go to Rubio. No big surprises. We are not ready to call Ohio or North Carolina. We are still not ready to say who has won a senate race in either state.

[Chips]

New update coming soon.

[Chips]

"It's 8PM and we can project the president will win Maryland, Massachusetts, Delaware and the District of Columbia. We can project Rubio will win Alabama and Oklahoma. All of this means that Rubio is now at 49 electoral votes and Clinton is at 30. For the senate, We can project that Lindsay Graham will win re-election in SC. Sessions will cruise to re-election in AL, Shelley Moore Capito will win re-election in WV, Jim Inhofe will win re-election in OK, Ed Markey will win re-election in MA and Chris Coons will win re-election in DE."

[Chips]

The race looks so far tighter than what polling has said. Go Rubio

Granted, I even said it could be a long night even if it's not a close race.

[Chips]

"It is 8:30PM and we can project that Arkansas will go to Rubio no real surprise. Also, we can project Rubio will win Mississippi, Tennessee and Georgia. The president will carry Illinois, Connecticut and Rhode Island. What this means is that Senator Rubio has 88 electoral votes while Clinton has 48. For the senate, GOP incumbents are projected to be re-elected in AR and MS. Hagerty has also been elected in TN. Incumbent Democrats have won in RI and NJ. Let's take a look at some battleground states now."

Virginia: Rubio is leading.
Pennsylvania: Clinton has a comfortable lead right now but only Philadelphia and it's suburbs are in right now. We can see that Clinton so far isn't getting numbers she needs and is currently losing in Bucks and Chester counties.
Ohio: Rubio is narrowly leading, Rubio is leading in Hamilton and Montgomery counties.
North Carolina: Rubio is comfortably ahead.
Florida: Rubio is leading by about seven points with 85% in.
New Hampshire: Clinton barely leads now.

"As we can see that doesn't look good for the President. If we take Trump's 216 from 2016 and add VA, NC and FL, That's 273 for Rubio so if Rubio only won states where he's leading right now and wins every state Trump won 4 years ago, he wins the election. Clinton HAS to have Virginia to win."

[Chips]

"It's 8:49PM and we have a major projection. Rubio has won his home state of Florida. Not a big surprise but it is a FLIP from 2016. We can also project Rubio will win Missouri while Clinton will win New Jersey."

"It's now 9PM on the east coast. We can project that Rubio will win Louisiana, 4/5 of Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming while the President will win New York. Rubio now has 148 electoral votes while Clinton has 104."

"We have a key projection for the Senate. Mitch McConnell has been re-elected as senator from Kentucky. The GOP is approaching a majority in the Senate and we can now project that the GOP has maintained control of the House. Apart from that, so far all incumbent parties have so far won their senate seats though several races remain too close to call."

[Chips]

I've been too busy to post timelines lately. I promise I will have the next part posted in a couple days or so.

[Chips]

"We have some projections. A key one is that Senator Rubio will win Ohio. This was a state that President Clinton narrowly failed to win last time and it appears to be going to Rubio by an even bigger margin. This could be a bad sign for Clinton elsewhere in the Industrial Midwest. Clinton is leading in Michigan but it is close, in Wisconsin Rubio has a lead and in Pennsylvania Clinton is leading but the margin is quickly shrinking. We can also project Kansas, Nebraska-2, Maine-2 and Texas have all gone to Rubio while the President will win Maine-1. Rubio has 212 electoral votes, Clinton has 105."

This is looking tough for the president, Isn't it?

"Indeed. She's on track to lose every state she lost in 2016 and has already lost Florida. That's 245 electoral votes for Rubio. North Carolina is close but Rubio is leading by a few points. If that goes, That's 260 for Rubio and then Rubio just needs one more big state or a couple of small states to win. Rubio is leading in Virginia. That would get him over. Rubio is leading in Colorado and New Hampshire. Winning both of those means Rubio wins the presidency. Rubio is leading in Wisconsin and isn't too far behind in Minnesota and Michigan. Pennsylvania is still showing a fairly large Clinton lead but it's shrinking and will likely be a very close race when all is said and done."

"We have another projection and that's that the GOP will retain control of the Senate. GOP has retained both Georgia races we can now project and that means that the GOP will retain control of the Senate."

[Chips]

Sorry for the delay, I have more free time popping up so I can post these more often.

[Chips]

"We can project the Florida senator has won Arizona, New Hampshire and North Carolina. the latter two being flips from 2016. That puts Rubio at 238 electoral votes, 32 away from winning. We can project that the President will win Maine's 2 at large electoral votes to put her at 107. There are strong indications that Rubio will win IA. If he wins IA along with MT, AK, UT and ID that's 264. Clinton would then have to sweep all the remaining swing states. She sits at a mere 3% chance of winning right now according to FiveThirtyEight."

"What happens if New Mexico goes for Rubio and the other states go for Clinton?"

"We'd have a 269-269 tie where Rubio would be elected anyway due to the GOP holding a LOT more delegations. That's probably moot as if Rubio is winning New Mexico he will almost certainly win Nevada and Colorado and either of those going Rubio means he wins no matter what New Mexico does."

"It's 10PM and we can project Iowa, Montana and Utah have gone for Rubio. Nevada is too early but Rubio has a lead. Rubio is inching close with 257 to Clinton's 107."

"What do you have to say here folks?"

"It's truly looking like this is the final few minutes for Clinton right now. Rubio is leading in most of the battlegrounds right now and will probably exceed 300 electoral votes by the time this night is over which would be the first time a GOP candidate for president has achieved this in 32 years. Pennsylvania just turned into a Rubio lead and we can confirm Rubio has won Bucks county by three points and Chester by one point. That's a bleak sign for Clinton in this key state. Nevada, Virginia and Colorado are also posting Rubio leads with New Mexico being even and Clinton leading in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan but all three are looking very close."

[Chips]

Good work, although I don't like where the election is going here.

Well, it is ironic that your last timeline had Rubio losing an election and it's ironic I'm using Rubio for this timeline but going to have him win.

[Chips]

MARCO RUBIO ELECTED PRESIDENT!!!

"It's 11PM on the east coast and we can project that California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Michigan have all gone to the President and that Idaho, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania have gone to Senator Rubio. Senator Rubio is the 46th president of the United States."

"After 3 consecutive election defeats, the GOP is back in full force. They have the presidency, the House and the Senate. They'll finally be able to pass legislation they want and hopefully Rubio will lead us in a better direction than Hillary who had called Rubio to concede about 20 minutes earlier. This really feels reminiscent of 1992 where an incumbent tried to run for a fourth consecutive term for their party but lost to a charismatic challenger."

"How are Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin looking now? Alaska will obviously go to Rubio of course."

"Nevada with 92% of the vote in is indicating a two point lead for Rubio. Rubio is confident that he will win here when all the votes are counted. In Clark County, 89% of the vote is in and Clinton is only leading by seven points here which is a bad sign for her here. Rubio is leading in Washoe County with 93% of it's vote now in. In New Mexico, 95% of the vote is in and Rubio is narrowly leading here by about 2,500 votes. It's likely this state will go to a recount but Rubio feels good about the state, he thinks the state will fall his way after the recount. Minnesota with 97% of the vote in, Clinton has a 1,000 vote lead but the rest of the vote we can say is in the rural counties, we think there could be as much as 6,000 rural votes left which could easily sway things Rubio's way. The state will go to a recount and the results of the state after the recount will be anyone's guess. Rubio feels as though there will be enough rural votes left to where he will be projected as the bare winner here. In Wisconsin, 98% of the vote is in and Clinton holds a 9,000 vote lead. The remaining vote seems to be mostly in Milwaukee. Clinton is confident that she will win here. If the states go as the way they're leaning now Rubio will have 317 electoral votes and Clinton 221 but Rubio thinks Minnesota will fall his way and if it does it's an even more impressive 327-211 win.

[Chips]

MARCO RUBIO ELECTED PRESIDENT!!!

"It's 11PM on the east coast and we can project that California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Michigan have all gone to the President and that Idaho, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania have gone to Senator Rubio. Senator Rubio is the 46th president of the United States."

"After 3 consecutive election defeats, the GOP is back in full force. They have the presidency, the House and the Senate. They'll finally be able to pass legislation they want and hopefully Rubio will lead us in a better direction than Hillary who had called Rubio to concede about 20 minutes earlier. This really feels reminiscent of 1992 where an incumbent tried to run for a fourth consecutive term for their party but lost to a charismatic challenger."

"How are Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin looking now? Alaska will obviously go to Rubio of course."

"Nevada with 92% of the vote in is indicating a two point lead for Rubio. Rubio is confident that he will win here when all the votes are counted. In Clark County, 89% of the vote is in and Clinton is only leading by seven points here which is a bad sign for her here. Rubio is leading in Washoe County with 93% of it's vote now in. In New Mexico, 95% of the vote is in and Rubio is narrowly leading here by about 2,500 votes. It's likely this state will go to a recount but Rubio feels good about the state, he thinks the state will fall his way after the recount. Minnesota with 97% of the vote in, Clinton has a 1,000 vote lead but the rest of the vote we can say is in the rural counties, we think there could be as much as 6,000 rural votes left which could easily sway things Rubio's way. The state will go to a recount and the results of the state after the recount will be anyone's guess. Rubio feels as though there will be enough rural votes left to where he will be projected as the bare winner here. In Wisconsin, 98% of the vote is in and Clinton holds a 9,000 vote lead. The remaining vote seems to be mostly in Milwaukee. Clinton is confident that she will win here. If the states go as the way they're leaning now Rubio will have 317 electoral votes and Clinton 221 but Rubio thinks Minnesota will fall his way and if it does it's an even more impressive 327-211 win.

How does MI votes to the left of PA and NH?

Marco Rubio wasn't the same fit for Michigan as Trump was. He does better in places like Oakland County but rural turnout is down enough for Clinton to win the state by 1%. In Pennsylvania, his rural margins and turnout would be down too but I think Rubio would do better enough in the Philadelphia suburbs and places like Dauphin and Centre counties to make up for it. Rubio has a 2 point win here when all is said and done. New Hampshire I definitely think Rubio would do better in Hillsborough county and basically everywhere in the state aside from some of the rurals in the North. Rubio again posts a 1.5-2% victory for Rubio. Rubio does much weaker than Trump in Maine's 2nd and is one of the few places to post a better result for Clinton than her first time around but Rubio still pulls it off. Virginia and Colorado same deal as NH. Rubio improves greatly in the DC suburbs and the Denver suburbs in places like Loudoun, VA, Larimer, CO, Adams, CO and Jefferson, CO. Both post roughly the same margin of victory as NH with VA being a slightly bigger margin than CO.

[Chips]

"It's 1 AM on the east coast and we can project Alaska and Nevada for Rubio and Wisconsin for the President. This puts the president-elect at 312 and the incumbent president at 211."

"How do New Mexico and Minnesota look?"

"Well, 97% of New Mexico's vote is in and Rubio leads by around 3,200 votes. We might be able to call the state real soon after all. in Minnesota, 99.7% is in and Rubio has taken an incredibly narrow 15 vote lead over Clinton. We're not going to be able to call this one soon."

"It's 3:49 AM now and we have a major projection. Rubio wins New Mexico. Becoming the first Republican nominee to win here since Bush's narrow win here in 2004. Rubio wins here narrowly as well. We thought this state would go for a recount but with 100% in Rubio is leading with a 0.58% margin. Minnesota will go to an automatic recount."

"Did you think going in, we were going to see Rubio at 317 electoral votes? No, I thought Rubio would win but without states like Colorado and New Mexico. I figured a 290-248 win for Rubio with Trump states+NC, FL, PA, NV and NH. I did not expect CO, NM or VA for Rubio.

[Chips]

NOVEMBER 16: RUBIO BECOMES FIRST REPUBLICAN TO WIN MINNESOTA IN NEARLY 50 YEARS

"Yes, After a long hard recount, Rubio has a razor-thin 0.03% lead in Minnesota which is enough to say he has won the North Star state. Minnesota was Rubio's only win in the 2016 GOP primaries and was one of Rubio's strongest states in this year's GOP primary. It seemed Rubio was just the right fit for Minnesota. This is a truly amazing development."

"It is and with this Rubio has 327 electoral votes. Clinton finishes with 211. This is the GOP's
best showing in an election since 1988 in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Rubio was not only able to being all the Bush 2004 states back together but also added Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine's 2nd district. (which had gone for Trump last time around)



✓ Senator Marco A. Rubio (R-FL)/Fmr. Governor John R. Kasich (R-OH): 327 EV. (51.05%)
President Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 211 EV. (46.90%)

[Chips]

Welcome to our election night group, Clinton/Kaine/ Northam/ Biden/Warner voter for Youngkin!

I'm guessing a narrow Clinton win but anything is possible. Also, you're using the wrong allocations. The toss-up map should be Clinton 237, Palin 224. I can already smell 2012 vibes.

[Chips]

Prediction: Palin takes NV and NH, Clinton takes CO. 298-240 Clinton.

[Chips]

Thank you OSR, President Johnson, S019, and Chips (apologies to anyone I missed, but I think it's you four) for this project. Very cool to read, getting through it now.

Do you guys take requests?

You can post requests here and one of us could decide to take it up when its our turn if we feel we could do a good job with this.

Cool. I was wondering about Cruz-Kasich (say their plan worked out) vs Sanders-Merkley (since he was Bernie's only Senate endorsement) in 2016. I wonder who would have won.

I could try taking a shot at it. I don't know when it's my turn but that's something I think I could do.

[Chips]

Okay, since OSR is approaching the end of his timeline and my turn is up next. I'm announcing that i'm taking up a request from "there is no tomorrow without today" and doing 2016: Ted Cruz/John Kasich vs. Bernie Sanders/Jeff Merkley.

This will be interesting and here is a toss-up map:

[Chips]

2016: Bernie Sanders/Jeff Merkley vs. Ted Cruz/John Kasich

Good evening ladies and gentlemen, Tonight is it. This is the day we will decide on a new president to lead this country forward for the next 4 years...Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz both became the nominees for their respective parties after pulling through in contested conventions. Bernie Sanders appears to have the easier path to victory but Ted Cruz has plenty of paths to win as well.

It's 6PM now and the first polls have closed in Indiana and Kentucky but we're not ready to call either right now.

"What are we going to be looking for in some of these earlier states?

Well, in Indiana there's a tiny county called Vigo which is in the southwestern part of the state and borders Illinois. Remarkably, it's only voted for the losing side twice since 1888. Whatever way this county goes might tell you which way the country is going tonight. Counties like Vigo are exactly the kind of college counties Sanders is hoping to appeal to tonight. Indiana as a whole is not expected to be competitive but Vigo could give us an early sign as to who may be headed to the White House tonight.

"And what about Kentucky"

Well, for Kentucky we're just looking at rural vs. urban turnout. How does Fayette County vote? That is a swing county that went narrowly for Obama 4 years ago. Can Cruz win historically Democratic Elliott County? that county has never voted for a Republican but Obama won that county by less than 3 points 4 years ago.

These are the kinds of questions to ask early on.

[Chips]

Updates coming soon. I was busy for a bit and forgot about this. Sorry.

[Chips]

7PM POLL CLOSINGS:

It is 7:00 P.M on the east coast, we can project that Senator Cruz has won the states of Indiana and Kentucky while Senator Sanders will win his home state of Vermont. We expect tonight to bring the largest margin ever for a Democrat in Vermont and quite possibly the first time a Democrat will ever get over 70% in that state. We cannot say who will win in South Carolina, Georgia or the key state of Virginia at this time.

"Why is Virginia key to this race?"

"Virginia was a solid Republican state until 2008 when Obama won it by six points. Obama won it again by four points in 2012. Virginia is 13 electoral votes. We started the night with Sanders solid or favored in states worth 227 electoral votes. If we add Virginia to Sanders, he's at 240 and it makes his math slightly easier. Now, Senator Cruz is leading in Virginia right now and he was the slight favorite in the polling but it's still too early to say who will win Virginia."

[Chips]

Here's what the final RCP averages look like by the way:

[Chips]

All what Cruz needs in the RCP Average you mentioned is Ohio and the 2nd District in Maine!

You may be on to something with my timeline.

[Chips]

Ugh. I keep forgetting to update this.