Election Night Timelines Project

[OSR stands with Israel]

My new guess is that Dole wins IL, Gore CA and the night ends with Gore having a few hundred vote lead in Florida and the case having to be decided in the supreme court which in a 5-4 decision decides in favor of Gore .

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Coverage, PART VII




01.01 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++




Tom Brokaw: Welcome back to our coverage, Ladies and Gentlemen. I would like to say Good Evening, but we have already passed an hour past midnight, so I should say Good Morning. At this late, or early hour, we still have no president-elect, with three major states outstanding for a call. Up to this minute. Here comes the call for the state of Illinois: We can now confirm, that Illinois is going for Bob Dole. That means, he adds crucial 24 Electoral votes to his tally. James Thompson, the vice presidential candidate and sitting governor of that state, has delivered his homestate to the Republican column by a razor thin margin. In the end, it was only little more than 20,000 votes, out of four and a half million, that separated the two candidates. Big, big relief for Republicans, after Florida was taken back to undecided.

Take a look at the final result:

Illinois (100% in)
✓ DOLE (R).... 2,275,457 (49.9%)
GORE (D).... 2,253,573 (49.4%)


This is our map:

Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 254 EV.
Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 216 EV.
Too close/early to call: 68 EV.


Tom Brokaw: I want to bring in the two studio guests we have from both parties, President Ford and Senator Biden of Delaware. Mr. President, how do you see this election turning out?

President Ford: Tom, this is really another 1960 election, which I remember quite well. In a lot of ways. I mean, we're here at the end of a two-term Republican president who did well in his bids for the White House, while there is a very close contest to succeed him. I'm not here to make a prediction, but from what I have seen, Florida is very likely to decide this election and pick the president. I believe that California will go to Senator Gore, at least from the numbers I have seen so far. We will have to analyze this later, but it might be Republicans were overconfident in the Golden State. Ronald Reagan made it look easy to win, but it's actually a competitive states. Remember that even Richard Nixon just barely took it in 1960 and 1968. And in 1976, when I ran, I was just able to get over the finishline. This time, it looks like it's going the other way. The Dole campaign needs Florida now. I think it looks good, but we have to see.

Tom Brokaw: Thank you for your insights, Sir. Senator Biden, what's your take?

Senator Biden: First off, let me say how excited I am for the incredible race my dear friend Al Gore has run. This is a guy who came to the senate four years ago, did the heck of a job and his now close to the presidency. That's number one. Number two, I believe Senator Gore is in an excellent position to win California. I agree with the president on that. And in Florida, we see what happens. But this wouldn't have been possible with Lawton Chiles. Lawton is a very smart guy and Florida loves him.

Tom Brokaw: Gentlemen, I have to interrupt. Seems like we're getting a major call.

01.16 a.m. +++ Key Race Alert +++



Tom Brokaw: It looks like President Ford was right: We have a call for California. And according to that prediction, Senator Al Gore has won the biggest prize of the night. 47 Electoral votes for Al Gore and Lawton Chiles. For the first time since 1964, the Golden State went for a Democrat at the presidential level. I guess this must be sort of painful for President Reagan to watch. But that's what happened. Al Gore won California. I hear from our reporters, that the joy at Gore Headquarters in Nashville is immense. At the same time, this is a tremendous setback for the Dole campaign. They could have closed the deal now, or would have if Florida kept in his column. But now, this goes down to Florida.

I hear we have the numbers here. About two percent of the vote remains to be counted, but Al Gore's lead is so large that there is literally no chance for Bob Dole, even if he wins almost everything left.

California (98% in)
✓ GORE (D)....5,019,070 (51.8%)
DOLE (R).... 4,612,118 (47.6%)


That is truly a surprise. Not just that Al Gore won this state, but by this margin. It turns out his message for renewal and innovation really hit a nerve in the Golden States with its growing population and expanding tech industry. Bob Dole did not have such a message and lacked appeal for his cause. He relied on President Reagan's popularity and hoped that would be enough to carry him over the finishline while his attacks on Mr. Gore with regard to crime fell flat. It looks like Californians, while still having high regard for Ronald Reagan, want to try something new. And that's how it ended up this night.

Once more, I show you the map. Al Gore is now in the lead with 263 to 254 electoral votes:

Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL): 263 EV.
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor James R. Thompson (R-IL): 254 EV.
Too close/early to call: 21 EV.


Tom Brokaw: Florida, Florida, Florida! That's where all eyes are now on. By looking at how close this race is, it's virtually impossible to say when exactly we will have a winner. It's likely going to a recount. We're also looking at potential recounts in Vermont and New Mexico. But Florida is all that matters.

Here are the numbers:

Florida (99.5% in)
GORE (D)....2,119,007 (49.5%)
DOLE (R).... 2,118,925 (49.5%)


We will back in just a moment. Stay with us.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Florida (99.5% in)
GORE (D)....2,119,007 (49.5%)
DOLE (R).... 2,118,925 (49.5%)

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

NBC News Special


9.42 a.m. +++ BREAKING NEWS +++

Tom Brokaw: Good Morning America, after a very short night and little sleep we are back with some new developments on the election. As of now, we still have no declared winner in the state of Florida. In other words, there is no president-elect at this point.

Supporters all over the nation have waited for reactions from their candidates. It is known that Al Gore and Bob Dole had a brief telephone conversation later in the night. Sources tell us that they agreed neither would declare victory nor confess defeat. Seems that at least the candidates for now have agreed to let the process play out. However, we do have a statement from Senator Dole. Let's go over to Wichita, where he appears before the press.


₍₁₎

Senator Bob Dole: Good morning everyone! First I want to thank my whole team and my family in particular. And second, and most important of all, the millions out there putting their trust in me. Let me also congratulate my worthy opponent, Senator Al Gore. As much as we both wish this election would be over now, it is not done. This race is not over. There is going to be a recount in the state of Florida. This a matter to be handled by the state government and we will see what happens in the coming hours and days. I am prepared to support the outcome, no matter what. So please be patient for the end result. We are a democracy, and even though it may be slow at times, we ought not to undermine public confidence in the process. Thank you all very much.

Tom Brokaw: That was Bob Dole, Ladies and Gentlemen. And I just received word from our colleagues over in Washington DC that President Ronald Reagan is giving a statement. Listen in:


₍₂₎

President Ronald Reagan: Good morning. If there was the slightest doubt about the question whether each individual vote counts, last night should put these doubt to rest. Once and for all. Just minutes ago, I had telephone conversations with the candidates of both major parties. They both assured me, the would let the state government do its work and be ready to cooperate with my administration. Indeed, I offered them my full cooperation in the transition that will take place, so that the incoming president, whoever it is, is best prepared for the challenges ahead. I will not take any questions, but keep you in touch. Thank you all very much.


+++ Al Gore wins popular vote +++

Tom Brokaw: Before we look at Florida once more, we now have a clear picture about the national race. And with almost all ballots counted, we can say that Al Gore has won the popular vote nationwide.

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE
Albert Arnold Gore/Lawton Mainor Chiles (D)....45,447,201 (49.8%)
Robert Joseph Dole/James Robert Thompson (R).... 44,541,674 (48.8%)



And now Florida:

Florida (>99.9% in)
GORE (D)....2,122,004 (49.4%)
DOLE (R).... 2,121,972 (49.4%)


We are scheduled to hear from local officials very soon. Stay with us.


------

Image sources: Wikimedia Commons (PD)

(1) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1996_1st_Presidential_Debate_E.png
(2) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Photograph_of_President_Reagan_speaking_at_a_Rally_for_Representative_Broyhill_in_Greensboro,_North_Carolina_-_NARA_-_198574.jpg

[2016]

Almost CERTAIN RECOUNT in FL. 32 VOTES!!! GIVE ME A BREAK!

[President Johnson]

+++ DECISION 1988 +++

November 10: Recount in Florida


BREAKING NEWS: Florida Governor Bob Martinez has authorized a recount for the statewide vote. A result is expected to be completed within a few days.

November 15

+++ BREAKING: AL GORE ELECTED PRESIDENT as Recount concludes +++
 

BOB DOLE CONCEDES


Wikimedia Commons (PD)

Bob Dole: Good afternoon my fellow countrymen: Just moments ago, I called Al Gore and congratulated him on his election to be the next president of the United States. I spoke to him and wished him all the best. The same, of course, applies to Tipper Gore, the incoming First Lady, as well as Vice President-elect Lawton Chiles and Mrs. Chiles. I also want to extend my thanks to our supports. After a long hard fought contest, the American people have spoken and elected a man their leader, whom I have known as passionate colleague in the senate. Tonight, in this moment of renewal, I urge all of you to pray for our next president and his success.

It was a great honor to be your nominee in this election. I did my best, as all of you did. You never let me down. Now it is time to come together as one nation, under god, to be that shining city upon a hill. Thank you all very, very much, and may god bless the United States of America.


AL GORE ADDRESSES NATION


Wikimedia Commons (PD)

Al Gore: My fellow Americans: I am deeply humbled and overwhelmed by the support you have shown me. Before I begin, let me use this opportunity to thank my dear colleague Bob Dole for his gracious words. This is a man who has served his country with honor and patriotism and I welcome his offer to work together. Let me also thank President Reagan for his call just minutes ago. I have accepted his invitation for a meeting in the White House tomorrow.

Today, a new chapter in the history of our country begins. America has chosen a new beginning and generational change. Now that the election and political process is over, we ought to come together as one nation, seeking to determine our own destiny. I look forward to working for you, the people, who have entrusted me with the highest of responsibilities. Let me once again thank you and may god bless our nation. Thank you.


Full results

[OSR stands with Israel]

So the Solid South breaking helps the Dems win as either FL or AR/LA gives Dole the presidency . Surprised Dole won Texas by 10 points given that HW only won it by 13 despite TX being his homestate and him winning nationally by 8 points .

[President Johnson]

So the Solid South breaking helps the Dems win as either FL or AR/LA gives Dole the presidency . Surprised Dole won Texas by 10 points given that HW only won it by 13 despite TX being his homestate and him winning nationally by 8 points .

Well, Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket, won his senate race and Poppy still went on to win by such a margin. Therefore, I think the margin is somewhat plausible here. Actually doubt Poppy benefited from a homestate advantage that much in 1988, unless Reagan in California, since Texas twice rejected him in senate bids.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So the Solid South breaking helps the Dems win as either FL or AR/LA gives Dole the presidency . Surprised Dole won Texas by 10 points given that HW only won it by 13 despite TX being his homestate and him winning nationally by 8 points .

Well, Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket, won his senate race and Poppy still went on to win by such a margin. Therefore, I think the margin is somewhat plausible here. Actually doubt Poppy benefited from a homestate advantage that much in 1988, unless Reagan in California, since Texas twice rejected him in senate bids.

Yah Bentsen probably did reduce HW margin in Texas and yah you are right since many people thought of HW's home state as CT not TX.


Anyway Great Job

[OSR stands with Israel]

My election night scenario will be Warner vs Guiliani in 2008 with no recession

[OSR stands with Israel]

Final CNN 2008 Election Battleground Map(No Lehman Brothers Crash):

Wolf Blitzer: With just 24 hours till the election lets go over to John King and look at out final battleground map

Presidential Election:

King: As you may remember 4 years ago in the last month the race was considered close but everyone said that President Bush had the advantage as he had an easier path to get to 270 , well this year it has also been close with the Democrat Senator Warner having a narrow advantage and going to our final battleground map its not different and let me tell you why, and remember dark states are what we consider safe for a candidate while light means we believe its leaning.

Former Governor Mark Warner(D-VA)/Senator Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) 234
Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani(R-NY)/Senator John McCain(R-AZ) 194

King: As you can see that Governor Warner has an easier path to get to 270 than Mayor Guiliani does and the reason is if you give each candidate the states that the polls are very favorable to so give Wisconsin, Arkansas , and West Virginia to Governor Warner and Pennsylvania and Colorado to Mayor Giuliani you can see that Governor Warner gets to 255 Electoral votes while Mayor Giuliani gets to 224 electoral votes and really at that point just taking North Carolina or Ohio would get Governor Warner over the top .

So for Mayor Giuliani to win he must realistically carry the states of North Carolina and Ohio a state no Republican has won the White House without and doing so would get him to 259 electoral votes so at that point all he would need is the Bellwether state of Missouri which has voted for the winner in every election but one in the past 100 years and doing so will get him here.

Blitzer: Tell me if I am wrong but we could have a scenario where that one district in Maine could decide the whole thing.

King: Yes you are correct so say you give Missouri and Maine to Governor Warner Nevada and New Mexico to Mayor Guiliani then you get to Mayor Guiliani having 269 electoral votes and Governor Warner having 268 votes and given that Democrats are expected to maintain both houses of Congress a 269-269 tie breaker goes to Governor Warner if he wins that district, but if Mayor Giuliani wins it he wins the electoral college 270-268.

Blitzer: And given the size you likely will see a lot of lawsuits

King: Yes you would and you likely could see the election being decided by the courts ala 2000 with some arguing is dividing the electoral votes like that even constitutional.

Blitzer: The Democrats believe they can win states like Georgia and Lousiana despite them leaning the Republicans way

King: Remember that this is the first election in decades where the Democratic candidate is more pro guns than the Republican candidate and its not that long ago that Rural Georgia was Democratic go you could see a huge trend back in the Democrats way to around where it was in 1996. Now as you can see Bob Dole won the state which is why we have the state as leaning but remember Dole also did very well in these suburban areas which are diversifying and the issues of guns matter a lot too so if he can get back most of the Clinton 96 support in Rural Georgia along with making inroads he very well could win this election.

Blitzer: Republicans on the other hand think the can challenge a state like Minnesota despite not having won there since 1972 , why is that

King: Well if you go back 4 years ago you can see that John Kerry only won this state by 3 and a half points and unlike the neighboring state of Wisconsin, the Republicans here arent as reliant on turnout from socially conservative suburbanites and is a more moderate state than Wisconsin overall so they believe even  if they lose Wisconsin they could make up for that with Minnesota in which case there could be an unlikely path without Ohio or North Carolina.


Senate Election:

Democrats 50
Republicans 38
Independent who can caucus either way

Note: FL is MS Special , and UT is WY Special


King: As you can see the senate map this year is really titled in the Democrats favor this year with out of the 11 contested races only 1 of them is held by the Democrats so the Republicans to win control of the senate must sweep the battleground races and then must convince Joe Lieberman who endorsed Mayor Guiliani to caucus with the Republicans to take the senate this year. Realistically its very difficult to see that happening cause once we take these battlegrounds and assign the ones that lean one way and are really not tossups  so we can move the Oregon , Minnesota , Mississippi Special races and move Colorado , and Virginia where popular Governor Tim Kaine is running then you get the Democrats up to 52 seats and the Republicans to 41.

Blitzer: In that case the Democrats can eve kick Joe Lieberman out of their caucus

King: Yes unless the Democrats need Senator Lieberman's vote I really doubt he will be let back into their caucus next year. Now most people believe that the Republicans will hold on to the senate race in New Hampshire  while the Democrats will pick up North Carolina and hold on in Lousiana which gives them 54 senate seats to the Republicans 42.

So the 3 most races to watch are one in Georgia where the Republicans might be dragged down by the weakness in Mayor Guiliani support in Rural Georgia compared to President Bush and also former Governor Roy Barnes  being a good fit for those areas, in Kentucky where Bruce Lansford has runa  very strong race and in Alaska where a scandal by Ted Stevens could cost him the race

[President Johnson]

My prediction:

✓ Former Governor Mark R. Warner (D-VA)/Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR): 289 EV. (50.11%)
Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-NY)/Senator John S. McCain (R-AZ): 249 EV. (48.39%)

[Chips]

How I think this scenario would go, Not my prediction for your map but how I would have the map:

Mark Warner: 277 electoral votes
Rudy Giuliani: 261 electoral votes

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 CNN Election Night Coverage(Exit Poll):

6:55 PM:
Wolf Blitzer: Lets go over now to John King to look at our exit poll for tonight

King: Ok here are what are exit polls are saying

Gender:
Male: 47%; Guiliani 52% Warner 47%
Female:53%; Warner 52% Guiliani 47%

Race:

White: 75% ; Guiliani 57% Warner 42%
African American: 12% ; Warner 91% Guiliani 8%
Hispanic: 9%; Warner 62% Guliani 37%
Asian: 2%; Warner 59% Guiliani 40%
Other: 2%; Warner 62% Guiliani 32%

Age:

18-29: 17% ; Warner 58% Guiliani 41%
30-44: 29% ; Guiliani 50% Warner 49%
45-64: 38% ; Guliani 51% Warner 48%
65+: 16%; Guiliani 50% Warner 50%


Income:

Under 50k: 38%: Warner 56% Guiliani 43%
50k-100k: 36%: Guiliani 51% Warner 48%
100k+ : 26%: Guiliani 54% Warner 45%


King: This race is going to be very close with the slight edge to Senator Warner we would say but we are headed for a long election night like expected and really it can go either way.

[KaiserDave]

Even without the collapse of Lehman, after eight years of Bush I don't see how Rudy can win. But we will see

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2008 election, after the longest campaign in history the American people will finally make their decision on who will be the 44th president of the United States. This is shaping up to be another close race so lets get right to it and the polls have closed in a few states and we can project that Governor Warner will win his home state of Virginia and its 13 electoral votes becoming the first Democrat since 1964 to take the state, and will also carry the state of Vermont and its 3 electoral votes while we can project that Mayor Guiliani will carry the ruby red state of Indiana . We are currently unable to make projections in Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina or Florida

Warner 16
Guiliani 11

Gergen: Governor Warner was very popular in Virginia and was up double digits here so despite its Republican history , the Republicans triaged the state so thats no surprise. Also Virginia has trended Democratic the past 4 years due to Northern Virginia exploding in population but while yes the Republicans can counter that by running up margins in the rest of Virginia thats just not possible against someone like Mark Warner.

Blitzer: So let me open up to the panel what do you guys think of the exit poll

Brown: Well its pretty clear we are gonna be in for a long night again but right now Governor Warner does have the slight edge if you forced me too choose who I think would win from looking at those numbers

Cooper: I would agree and one thing that is interesting is that the income gap and that is that Governor Warner managed to do better with low income voters than Mayor Guiliani did with high income voters which is good news for Governor Warner.

7:30:

Blitzer: The polls have closed in 3 major battleground states and as expected we are right now unable to make projections in North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio.

Blitzer: Lets go over to John King at the magic wall to look at how things are going in Florida

King: Well Florida is going like we expected and that is the Republicans are performing around they did  4 years ago in South East Florida but the Democrats are making some gains in the panhandle too from 4 years ago so the question is will that be enough. Right now the numbers look good for Mayor Guiliani here like the polls indicated but there is still ways to go.

Blitzer: What about in the seante

King: Lets first start in Kentucky a race many Democrats believe the can knock of the Republican leader Mitch McConnell and around 60% of the vote has come in and we can see that the Democratic Bruce Lunsford is performing really well in Eastern Kentucky like expected and in the far west so right now this race is looking very similar to the race 4 years ago here which the Republicans narrowly pulled it out. This one probably wont get decided until all the votes are in. In Virginia the Republicans are ahead but again ill warn you not much in Fairfax county has come in so its too early to make a prediction on that yet and in Georgia so far Governor Barnes has picked up support in Rural Georgia where Mayor Guiliani might drag down the ticket due to his views on guns and is making inroads in the Atlanta suburbs so this is another race which will go down to the wire.

7:54:

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that the state of South Carolina will be won by Mayor Guiliani which is no surprise. Out of the states that have not been called so far Mayor Guiliani holds a lead in Florida , Kentucky with now over 2/3 of the preciencts in both those states, a solid lead in Georgia but due to the slow manner the results there are reported it could be a couple hours before we can make any call there. Right now in West Virginia Governor Warner holds a narrow lead but there is still much of the vote to come in and in Ohio and North Carolina while it may seem like Governor Warner lead is large much of the Republican areas of the states are yet to come in so it will likely be close there as well.

Giuliani 19
Warner 16

Blitzer:  We will now take a break and come back in a few minutes when the polls close in many more states so stay with us.

[President Johnson]

Great work so far.

Will you make a result list by state at the end?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Great work so far.

Will you make a result list by state at the end?

I plan to list the states which are within 10 points. A full list depends on the time I have

[President Johnson]

Great work so far.

Will you make a result list by state at the end?

I plan to list the states which are within 10 points. A full list depends on the time I have

Good.

If you need a template from my result above, let me know. I have a full Excel where you only have to fill in the percentages and insert the total number of votes cast by C&P from Wikipedia.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Great work so far.

Will you make a result list by state at the end?

I plan to list the states which are within 10 points. A full list depends on the time I have

Good.

If you need a template from my result above, let me know. I have a full Excel where you only have to fill in the percentages and insert the total number of votes cast by C&P from Wikipedia.

Thanks

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 2):

8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU


Blitzer: Its 8 PM in the East and CNN can now project that Governor Warner will carry the states of Connecticut, Deleware, Illinois ,  Maryland, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia while Mayor Guiliani will carry the states of Alabama, Oklahoma  and Tennessee  . We are currently unable to make projections in Florida, Maine , Mississippi, Missouri, New Hamphsire, New Jersey and Pennsylvania

Warner 72
Guiliani 46

Brown: An interesting fact is that for the first time recent memory there is a chance Pennsylvania could go Republican while Ohio could go Democrat , so John why is that

King: Well first to remind everyone that 4 years ago President Bush won Ohio by 2.1 points and lost Pennsylvania by 2.5 points so there wasnt a big difference. Now if you look at the map in Pennsylvania of 4 years ago you can see Senator Kerry margins came from the cities: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and his strength in the Philli suburbs . Mayor Gulinai believes he can make major inroads here in the Philli metro, starting in Philadelphia where he believes he can hold the Democrats from over a 60 point margin to a little under 50 which alone would net him 75000 votes which alone would wipe out more than half of Senator Kerry's margin and if you go along the Philli suburbs you can see he can easily make up that deficit here along although one potential problem is the western half of the state will likely swing to the Democrats so that will counter that trend.

On the other hand in Ohio, there is no place in the state where Mayor Guliani can really out perform President Bushs so that makes it harder for him to win Ohio than Pennsylvania. Take Hamilton County for example a big republican area of the state and the problem for Mayor Guiliani is the county has lots of Christian Conservatives so that makes him a worse fit than President Bush was. The Cleveland area has turned big against the Republican in the past 4 years so again he likely will do worse than President Bush did. So the question is the drop enough small enough for him to carry it

Brown: Many have said Pennsylvania can replace Ohio this year, so can it for the Republicans

King: Well lets go over to the what if map and if you give Governor Warner Ohio and West Virginia two places he is leading now he gets to 259 EV. Now here is the problem for Mayor Guiliani and that is even if you give him Pennslyvania, North Carolina, Arkansas, 3 EV in Maine all the states out west he only gets to 258 Electoral votes meaning he must win both Missouri and Wisconsin in order to win. The Reason for that is with the Democrats really likely to take the house and senate a 269-269 tie would go to the Democrats so even if you give Missouri to Mayor Guiliani and Wisconsin to Governor Warner its still a win for Governor Warner. The problem is its very hard to see Mayor Guiliani take both those states in a night he is losing Ohio so more realistically he must find a way to turn West Virginia back into his favor then he only needs one but even that is hard in a night he is losing Ohio. There is a reason why no Republican has ever won the white house without winning Ohio and looking at the What If Map i dont see that changing tonight

Brown: Back to Wolf who has a major projection to make right now

Breaking News: Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives:
Blitzer: Yes and that CNN can now project the Democrats will retain the House of Representatives and have anywhere from 233 seats to 246 seats at the end of the night

Cooper: Well now its clear a 269-269 scenario will go towards the Democrats

Dobbs: Well and even if Mayor Guiliani pulls out it tonight its very hard to see conservatives getting much wins over the next 4 years seeing the shape of congress.


8:30:

Blitzer: The polls have closed in Arkansas and currently we are unable to make a projection in the state. On the other hand we can project that the state of Kentucky will be won by Mayor Guiliani when all the votes are counted

Warner 72
Guiliani 54

Cooper: This was expected but it was only a lean state

Brown: That is not the only race in Kentucky though and lets go over to John King to see the other race

King: Cambell, Senator McConnell must be very worried now as he still trails by around 2 points but some encouraging news is the Republican areas of the states in the Cincinnati suburbs still have many votes to come in but again so does a a little bit Jefferson County and a little bit in Fayette so the only question is will those suburbs will have enough. At this point I will say he is the clear underdog but we will wait for all the votes to come in which should happen by 9:30-9:45 .

Brown: So Democrats could do to the Republicans what Republicans did to them 4 years ago but my question is how are some of the other races going

King: Yes McConnell could end up like Dashale very much. The Other races well lets start with Georgia and you can see Senator Chambliss is not putting up the numbers he needs in these rural counties , is breaking even with what a republican needs in the exurbs so now we are waiting for more but this is a pure tossup at the moment. In North Carolina, Mrs. Hagan holds a big lead but much of the Republican areas are still to come in so its to early while in Virginia its the exact opposite.

Brown: Lets go over to our panel here and see their thoughts

Gergen: Well at this point i dont think anyone can still say who will win but Governor Warner still holds a small advantage

O'Brien : Right now I would say this election probably will be decided by 3 states either Ohio again, North Carolina or Missouri

8:50:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Mayor Guiliani will carry the state of Georgia and its 15 electoral votes while Governor Warner will carry the state of New Jersey and its 15 electoral votes

Warner 87
Guiliani 69

Cooper: Many in the Warner camp thought maybe they had a shot of Georgia but it was always gonna be tough

Gergen: Yes it would be but he probably will be within 5 to 6 points but the fact is the state at a Presidential level is too Republican for a Democrat to win it but as John said earlier at the senate level , they may have a Democratic senator .

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 3):

9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: Its 9 in the east and CNN can now project that Governor Warner will win the state of New York and Rhode Island while Mayor Guiliani will win the states of Texas, Kansas, 4 of the 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, North and South Dakota , and Wyoming . We are unable to make a call at this moment in Arizona, Colorado , Lousiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska 2nd district, New Mexico, and Wisconsin

Warner 122
Guiliani 122

Brown: Lets go over to John King and the magic wall to see how things are in the battlegrounds

King: Well first lets look at Ohio the main battleground state and what you see is that its a close race and as you can see that Governor Warner is performing really well in the North East parts of the state, while Mayor Guliani is performing really well in the central parts  as well. Now what is the worry for the mayor Guliani camp and that is South Eastern Ohio is swinging more Democratic from where it was 4 years ago and Hamilton County right now is tied a county that Republicans need generally to win the state.  On the other hand there is a lot of the vote to come so we dont know.

On the other hand In Pennslyvania, things are looking good for mayor Guiliani as right now Governor Warner margin here is 48 points compared to 61 points Seantor Kerry won by and throughout the suburban counties you can see he had made major inroads like Montgomery which Senator Kerry won by double digits while Governor Warner is winning by around 5 points so right now I would say Pennsylvania looks good for Mayor Guliani.

Brown: lets go over to Wolf as he hs a call to make

Blitzer: Yes and that is we can now project that Mayor Guliani will carry the state of New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes

Guiliani 126
Warner 122


Cooper: It was expected but its a flip from 4 years ago

Gergen: Mayor Guliani is probably the best fit the Republicans have nominated for the North East since 1988 so this is no surprise that he is doing better than any Republican has in many years there.

9:30:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Governor Warner will carry the state of Michigan and also carry the battleground state of West Virginia and its 5 electoral votes while we can also project that Mayor Guiliani will carry the state of Mississippi and its 6 electoral votes .

Warner 144
Guiliani 132

Blitzer: Lets go to Candy Crowley who is in Richmond, Virginia to see a reaction of the crowd

Crowley: The crowd as you can see is cheering loudly at the call that West Virginia is going to Governor Warner as its a state similar to a part of Virginia Governor Warner always has done in prior state wide runs so they were counting on the state and it delivered

Brown: Lets go over to John King to find out the significance of that call

King: Well it is significant cause if you look at the what if map that means that if Governor Warner wins Ohio , just winning one of Wiscosnin, Missouri and North Carolina will put him over the top. First lets look at Missouri and you can see that Governor Warner is doing well in St Louis, Kansas City and is currently ahead in the belweather clay county so right now I would say he is favored here in Missouri though there is still a long way to go. In North Carolina while Governor Warner is ahead , Mayor Guiliani is not doing as bad in the suburbs as the Democrats might have hoped so right now id say the Mayor is favored here but it will be close. Regardless with Ohio, Missouri is all Governor Warner needs so Ohio will be more critical


Borger: I fully agree and as of this moment I cannot see Governor Warner losing in Wisconsin or Minnesota either so in my opinion just like 4 years ago we are coming down to whoever wins Ohio will be the next president.


Blitzer: Stand by as we have a major projection to make and that is that Senator Sununu will be reelected in New Hampshire but in North Carolina the Democrat Kay Hagan will unseat seantor Elizabeth Dole. So so far the Democrats have gained 1 seat tonight. So now lets look at our senate battleground tracker

Democratic Gains: NC
Democratic Holds:
Undecided Battlegrounds: KY, VA, MS-S, GA, LA, MN, CO , NM, OR, AK, CT(Lieberman's Party)
Republican Gains:
Republican Holds:  NH



9:45:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Mayor Guiliani will carry Lousiana and its 9 electoral votes

Warner 144
Guiliani 141

Blitzer: CNN can also now project that in the Kentucky Senate Race the Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell will go down in defeat to Democrat Bruce Lunsford which will be a major major blow to Senate Republicans as they now will have their third seante leader in just 3 years.  We can also project that Senator Roger wicker will defeat former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi and will serve out the term of retired seantor Trent Lott.  Lets now look at the Senate Battleground

Democratic Gains: NC, KY
Democratic Holds:
Undecided Battlegrounds: VA, GA, LA, MN, CO , NM, OR, AK , CT*(Lieberman's party)
Republican Gains:
Republican Holds:  NH, MS-S


Martin: This is a huge defeat for the Republicans and many Democrats believe this is their reenge from 2004 when Republicans took down their senate leader Tom Daschale in a similarly tighly contested race . Similalry this night looks very similar to 2004 except with the parties reversed with it coming down to Ohio except this time the Democrats have the edge


Gergen: I defintely agree with that comparision and the way its coming out the Democrats could have 55 seante seats to at the end of the night if they pick up Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado like they are expected to which would be the exact number the Republicans back in 2004.

Cooper: Isnt it possible that number would be 56 if Lieberman stays a Democrat

Gergen: After the way he spoke at the Republican convention and campaigned for the Republicans I highly doubt they would let him be in their caucus as there really is no functional difference between 55 or 56 and really the only way i see him being allowed to stay in is if somehow the Democrats have 52 or less seats or get to 58 or more but nothing in between. Thats the reason we put CT up in a gold tile on the senate battleground as while his seat is not up which party he will caucus with in January is basically up for grabs .

[President Johnson]

West Virginia for Warner, that's amazing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

West Virginia for Warner, that's amazing.

I think Warner wins it as he was very popular in Appaclahian VA even in 2008 and Rudy in 2008 was pretty anti gun for a Republican while Warner was pretty pro-gun for a Dem so I think WV goes to Warner for that.

Im sure the best news for you though is McConnell going down in defeat right

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 4):

10:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: Its 10 pm in the east and we can now project that Mayor Guiliani will carry the states of Utah and Montana while Governor Warner will carry the state of Iowa along with Minnesota . We are currently unable to make a projection in Nevada

Warner 161
Guiliani 149

Blitzer: We also have some breaking news to project and that is

Breaking News: Democrats Keep Control of the Senate:
Blitzer: We can now project the Democrats will keep control of the United States Seante as CNN can now project that in Iowa Democratic Senator Tom Harkin will be reelected, in Montana Seantor Max Baucus will be reelected and in New Mexico Democrat Tom Udall will be the next senator of the state. Those 3 wins will mean Democrats will control at least 52 seats meaning they will retain their majority.

Democratic Gains: NC, KY, NM
Democratic Holds:
Undecided Battlegrounds: VA, GA, LA, MN, CO , OR, AK , CT*(Lieberman's party)
Republican Gains:
Republican Holds:  NH, MS-S


Martin: That was no surprise but it does show that even if Mayor Guiliani wins our nation will move in a more liberal direction cause the fact is if he wants to get anything done he will have to deal with a solidly Democratic Congress with Democrats probably have anywhere from 55 to 58 Senate seats and  240-242 house seats.

Gergen: Not only that but look who the Republicans nominated, they did not nominate someone from the South or West but from metropolitan eastern city , have nominated someone who is not socially conservative and some could argue socially liberal given his positions on guns, and abortion so the fact is either way we are probably gonna move in a more liberal direction for the next 4 years.


Blitzer: We have some major news to project and that is the state of Florida and its 27 electoral votes will be won tonight by Mayor Guiliani

Guiliani 176
Warner 161

Brown: Lets go over to John King and find out why we were able to call this early

King: Well that is despite underperforming President Bush in the panhandle the Republican overperformed him in the more populated areas down South East and we expect the margin to be around 4 to 5 points overall for them so similar to how it was 4 years ago. Now the question is the 5 major battlegrounds and lets start with the big one Ohio where Governor Warner still holds a narrow lead and the reason why that is he currently leads in Hamilton County and is performing around where Seantor Kerry did in the Cleveland area and in the North East so the only question is can it hold but at this moment its very close , in Pennsylvania , Mayor Guiliani has taken the lead but their is still parts of Appalachian Pennslyvania to come in which is leaning Governor Warner way and Rural central Pennslyvania which leads Mayor Guliani's way. In Missouri Governor Warner is ahead by 3 points right now and if you look a key Kansas City suburban county, Clay County, you can see he is up by 5 there and making inroads in the Northern parts of the state so I would say he is in good shape here.

In North Carolina, Forsyth county a county that Democrats hoped to make massive inroads in ,currently is tied and overall both candidates seem to be trading leads here in the state. In Wisconsin, a place Mayor Guliani hoped to make inroads in areas like Madison is happening but is being offseted by unable to put up the margins in the Milwaukee suburbs as President Bush did but there is much of the vote still outstanding so we will see how the state will go

10:30:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that in Minnesota- Seantor Norm Coleman will be reelected while in Lousiana - Senator Mary Landrieu will for sure be over the 50% mark thus winning reelection as well. Now let look at our battleground senate board

Democratic Gains: NC, KY, NM
Democratic Holds: LA
Undecided Battlegrounds: VA, GA, CO , OR, AK , CT*(Lieberman's party)
Republican Gains:
Republican Holds:  NH, MS-S, MN


As you can see Democrats will have at least 53 seats while Republicans will have at least 41 in the next senate. It is possible that Democrats could get to 59 theoretically

Gergen: Theoretically yes but with the way this night as gone overall and polling tells me that Gordon Smith most likely will be reelected in Oregon as moderate Republican senators like Norm Coleman have been doing well in similarly Democratic states so that number will probably be no more than 58 and that is if they choose to keep Senator Lieberman in their caucus which looks unlikely at this moment.

Borger: Dont forget that in Colorado where the polls closed 90 minutes ago and its still pretty much a dead heat  

King: Well looking at the map it pretty much looks like that Congressman Udall is doing what he needs to in the urban areas while Congressman Schaffer is doing what he needs to in the rural areas and the exurbs . So this race will be decided in the suburbs and its very close there. It probably will be not decided until the last moment

Cooper: Realistically 55 to 57 looks more accuarate

Gergen: I agree with that

Blitzer: Stand by as we have a call to make and while it isnt much of a surprise , it is that we can project that Mayor Guliani will win the home state of his running mate John McCain as we can now protect he will carry Arizona and its 10 electoral votes

Guiliani 186
Warner 161

Blitzer: In some of the key battleground states currently Mayor Guliani is ahead in Pennsylvania 49.8% to 49.3%, Colorado 51.6% to 47.5%, Nevada 50.5% to 48.6% while Governor Warner is ahead in Wisconsin 51.6% to 47.3%,  Ohio 49.9% to 49.2% , Missouri 51.1% to 48%, Arkansas 50.8% to 48.7% while its basically a tie in North Carolina, New Mexico and Maine.

Martin: At this point I would say its hard for me to see how Mayor Guliani can win without Ohio as this point its difficult to see him pull it out in Wisconsin or Missouri and if you add those states to California, Washington and Hawaii states that are considered safe dem that would give him 252 electoral votes which at that point  Ohio's 20 would put him over the top.

King: To Roland point though Governor Warner can win without winning Pennsylvania, Ohio or North Carolina because lets go to the what if map and give him Oregon and that first district in Maine along with the 252 Roland was talking about and you can see that gets him to 260 electoral votes. So at this point lets say for the sake of argument give Mayor Guliani Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada and you can see that gets the Mayor to 264 electoral votes . Now at this point it seems pretty likely Governor Warner Arkansas 266 electoral votes and then if he just wins New Mexico he would win the presidency. Even say Mayor Guliani wins New Mexico, if Governor Warner wins the remaining  3 electoral votes in Maine you get to the 269-269 map we have been talking about and given Democrats will control both houses, Governor Warner would still become the next President . So at this point Ohio is a must win for Mayor Guliani but is not yet for Mayor Guliani.

Cooper: Though if Mayor Guliani wins either New Mexico or Arkansas and takes at least 1 electoral vote in Maine that no longer becomes true

King: That is correct because if you give that one electoral vote in Maine, that would give Mayor Guliani 270 electoral votes and thus the presidency. So in most scenarios whoever wins Ohio will win the presidency but there are ways Governor Warner can win without Ohio at this stage even if they are very narrow.

10:55:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that Governor Tim Kaine will be the next senator from Virginia which means for the first time since 1972 both of Virginia's senator will be a Democrat.

Democratic Gains: NC, KY, NM, VA
Democratic Holds: LA
Undecided Battlegrounds: GA, CO , OR, AK , CT*(Lieberman's party)
Republican Gains:
Republican Holds:  NH, MS-S, MN