Election Night Timelines Project

[Chips]

You mean Bush not Romney right .


Also the 269-269 scenario is possible if Bush wins NV IA AK

Oh, Nice catch! It may or may not be 269-269.

[Chips]

Here's where the 4 remaining battlegrounds stand:

NEVADA

Bush: 503,129
Obama: 492,148

IOWA

Bush: 739,121
Obama: 725,357

WISCONSIN

Obama: 1,311,432
Bush: 1,310,428

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bush: 277,175
Obama: 277,169

[Chips]

1AM: We can project that Bush will win AK.


1:37AM: We have a major projection. Bush will win Iowa and 6 electoral votes. It's very tight but Bush we can project will have those 6 electoral votes.

NOTE: I decided to swap the color scheme to make things a little more authentic.

Bush: 263
Obama: 255

[Chips]

BREAKING NEWS: We can project Nevada, Wisconsin and New Hampshire will all go through contested results. Bush leads in NV while NH and WI continue to both be tight as a tick.

[Chips]

GEORGE W. BUSH WINS PRESIDENCY WITH NEVADA AND WISCONSIN, PRESIDENT OBAMA NARROWLY RETAINS NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bush: 279
Obama: 259

[Chips]

BUMP. This was a great project and I hope this gets revived at some point.

[Chips]

Guessing a narrow Cuomo victory but if NC polling is wrong and Rubio sweeps the battlegrounds it could be a Rubio win.

[Chips]

Down to the Rust Belt?

[Chips]

McAuliffe should win. If it's that close in Ohio, Wisconsin should go to McAuliffe.

[Chips]

Looks like it really will be Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Wisconsin. McAuliffe will probably win it and then it will be 273-265.

[Chips]

I'm calling that Ohio goes to Rubio by 1,000 votes or so, just barely losing it's streak. I hope I'm wrong.

Or maybe you plan on having OH go blue by 1,000 votes to make it 306 the other way.

[Chips]

I'll guess that Nixon narrowly wins.

[Chips]

Quick announcement: I got the OK to do the next election night after OSR is done. I have a very good idea for what I want to do but I won't reveal it right now.

[Chips]

I think Nixon will win this with under 300.

[Chips]

I think it's either a Nixon win or a deadlock.

[Chips]

So close.

[Chips]

Since OSR is about halfway done with his timeline. I suppose I will reveal mine.

Once OSR is done, I will start an alternate 2020 election night where Hillary is president and I won't reveal who the GOP nominee is right now.

The only thing I will say is that there will be some real surprises. Stay tuned!

[Chips]

Yikes!

[Chips]

SNEAK PEEK FOR MY NEXT ELECTION NIGHT:

"Hillary has a long road to climb."

"He's had a steady lead of anywhere between 2-4 points throughout the campaign."

"He's got leads in NV, IA, OH, NC, FL and ME-02. PA, VA and NH look favorable as well while CO and NM are tied and Hillary only has small leads in WI, MI and MN."

"Senate Dems and House Dems are hoping to gain the chambers thanks to a funding crisis the Senate and House GOP both had toward the end of the campaign."

"This is a very big projection, We can project that the state of ____________ and it's __ electoral votes will go to ___________ making ___ the winner of the election!"


COMING NEXT WEEK!

I'm not sure exactly when the timeline will come out. I told OSR I was aiming for a Monday release date so he'll try to get his own timeline done by Sunday night but also told me he might not be done before then and has asked me to not release mine until he's finished. (Tuesday or so at the latest he said) But it will be coming next week as soon as OSR is done with his.

[Chips]

The suspense.... Can't wait for the conclusion to another great timeline!

[Chips]

2020: President Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Here we are folks! President Clinton is eyeing a fourth straight term for Democrats in the White House while Marco Rubio hopes to bring in a new vision for the White House. A pandemic has hit the country and has led to about 50,000 dead and more than 3 million infected. Clinton's poll numbers began to sour after this and Rubio has held an edge of between 2 and 4 points throughout most of the campaign. Clinton officials continue to insist she has a path to re-election while Rubio officials are feeling very good about this election. Here is what the final polling looked like state by state.



Rubio holds a 303-221 edge in polling including 266 in Likely or Safe.

Our first poll closings will close in an hour.

[Chips]

Good guess.

[Chips]

It is now 7PM on the east coast, Polls are now closing and let's get to some projections:

"We are able to project Vermont for the President and we can also project Indiana and Kentucky for Rubio. We are unable to project South Carolina, Georgia and especially Virginia at this time. We cannot project a senate race at this time."

What are we looking for in Virginia?

"Mainly to see what happens in Loudoun, Prince William and Henrico counties. Also, there's this tiny town called Radford, and Radford usually tracks the statewide vote pretty well so the popular vote in Radford will likely look very similar to the statewide vote."

Okay, thank you! Any real surprises?

"Not really, South Carolina and Georgia usually take a while to really start counting votes and with the pandemic it could take longer. It could be a long time before we're able to say who wins this election even if it's not close."

Thanks. What about the senate?

"Democrats are hoping to pick up 7 or more seats tonight, Senate Republicans have had a funding crisis which gives the Democrats hope in several senate seats tonight. The least of which is Kentucky where Mitch McConnell and Charles Booker appear to be in a tight race. McConnell is leading right now but only narrowly. Jaime Harrison wants to beat Lindsay Graham though this race was thought to be leaning Graham despite the funding crisis." On the other side of the coin, Alissa Baldwin hopes to be able to take Virginia's seat from Mark Warner."

[Chips]

How do Republicans do so poorly in a 2018 Clinton midterm such that a D+7 result in 2020 for the US Senate flips the chamber?

Changes from IRL:

2016:

D's win MO, NC, PA, WI

2017: Sessions never resigns

2018: R's retain NV, AZ, pick up ND, FL, IN, MO, MI, MT, WV, OH. 2018 was still an amazing year for Republicans with an R+8 gain and 56 seats.

[Chips]

Next update coming over the weekend.